Brexit Thread 3

Fed up talking videogames? Why?

GRpredicts: Will Brexit be delayed again?

Yes
63
66%
No
32
34%
 
Total votes: 95
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Rex Kramer
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Rex Kramer » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:22 pm

Blue Eyes wrote:Yep, this is real. But Brexit isn't about racism. Oh no.


Surprised they didn't mention the one world cup as well.

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more heat than light
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by more heat than light » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:38 pm

I don't suppose they picked that picture of Merkel with her right arm up straight by accident either. strawberry floating horrible.

jawafour wrote:You definitely have the biggest one, mhtl - it's strawberry-floatin' massive!
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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Moggy » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:41 pm

Will this country ever get over the strawberry floating world wars? :fp:

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Errkal
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Errkal » Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:21 pm

They aren’t even pretending to not be full fat racist any more.

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Gemini73
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Gemini73 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:28 pm

How Number 10 view the state of the negotiations

James Forsyth

7 October 2019 9:00 PM

Earlier today, I sent a message to a contact in Number 10 asking them how the Brexit talks were going. They sent a long reply which I think gives a pretty clear sense of where they think things are.

So, in the interest of trying to let people understand where Number 10 reckon the negotiations are, here is their response:

‘The negotiations will probably end this week. Varadkar doesn’t want to negotiate. Varadkar was keen on talking before the Benn Act when he thought that the choice would be ‘new deal or no deal’. Since the Benn Act passed he has gone very cold and in the last week the official channels and the backchannels have also gone cold. Varadkar has also gone back on his commitments — he said if we moved on manufactured goods then he would also move but instead he just attacked us publicly. It’s clear he wants to gamble on a second referendum and that he’s encouraging Barnier to stick to the line that the UK cannot leave the EU without leaving Northern Ireland behind.

There are quite a few people in Paris and Berlin who would like to discuss our offer but Merkel and Macron won’t push Barnier unless Ireland says it wants to negotiate. Those who think Merkel will help us are deluded. As things stand, Dublin will do nothing, hoping we offer more, then at the end of this week they may say ‘OK, let’s do a Northern Ireland only backstop with a time limit’, which is what various players have been hinting at, then we’ll say No, and that will probably be the end.

Varadkar thinks that either there will be a referendum or we win a majority but we will just put this offer back on the table so he thinks he can’t lose by refusing to compromise now. Given his assumptions, Varadkar’s behaviour is arguably rational but his assumptions are, I think, false. Ireland and Brussels listen to all the people who lost the referendum, they don’t listen to those who won the referendum and they don’t understand the electoral dynamics here.

If this deal dies in the next few days, then it won’t be revived. To marginalise the Brexit Party, we will have to fight the election on the basis of ‘no more delays, get Brexit done immediately’. They thought that if May went then Brexit would get softer. It seems few have learned from this mistake. They think we’re bluffing and there’s nothing we can do about that, not least given the way May and Hammond constantly talked tough then folded.

So, if talks go nowhere this week, the next phase will require us to set out our view on the Surrender Act. The Act imposes narrow duties. Our legal advice is clear that we can do all sorts of things to scupper delay which for obvious reasons we aren’t going into details about. Different lawyers see the “frustration principle” very differently especially on a case like this where there is no precedent for primary legislation directing how the PM conducts international discussions.

We will make clear privately and publicly that countries which oppose delay will go the front of the queue for future cooperation — cooperation on things both within and outside EU competences. Those who support delay will go to the bottom of the queue. [This source also made clear that defence and security cooperation will inevitably be affected if the EU tries to keep Britain in against the will of its government] Supporting delay will be seen by this government as hostile interference in domestic politics, and over half of the public will agree with us.

We will also make clear that this government will not negotiate further so any delay would be totally pointless. They think now that if there is another delay we will keep coming back with new proposals. This won’t happen. We’ll either leave with no deal on 31 October or there will be an election and then we will leave with no deal.

‘When they say ‘so what is the point of delay?’, we will say “This is not our delay, the government is not asking for a delay — Parliament is sending you a letter and Parliament is asking for a delay but official government policy remains that delay is an atrocious idea that everyone should dismiss. Any delay will in effect be negotiated between you, Parliament, and the courts — we will wash our hands of it, we won’t engage in further talks, we obviously won’t given any undertakings about cooperative behaviour, everything to do with ‘duty of sincere cooperation’ will be in the toilet, we will focus on winning the election on a manifesto of immediately revoking the entire EU legal order without further talks, and then we will leave. Those who supported delay will face the inevitable consequences of being seen to interfere in domestic politics in a deeply unpopular way by colluding with a Parliament that is as popular as the clap.

Those who pushed the Benn Act intended to sabotage a deal and they’ve probably succeeded. So the main effect of it will probably be to help us win an election by uniting the leave vote and then a no deal Brexit. History is full of such ironies and tragedies.’

Now, this is—obviously—only one side of the negotiations view of things. It does, though, make clear Downing Street’s pessimism about getting a deal this week and its thinking about how to handle the coming extension and election campaign.




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Garth
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Garth » Tue Oct 08, 2019 7:40 pm

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Garth
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Garth » Tue Oct 08, 2019 8:36 pm



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Squinty
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Squinty » Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:49 pm

Moggy wrote:
Squinty wrote:I've already said about the dude I work with. His brother is a farmer down Maghera way, and he says he'll go out of business if it's no deal. These strawberry floating politician banana splits are strawberry floating with honest people trying to eek out a living. They need to step back and think about the ramifications.


The trouble is Johnson, Rees-Mogg and Farage don’t care at all about a farmer in Northern Ireland. They wouldn’t piss on him if he was on fire.

Which way did that farmer vote btw?


I'll have to ask that. Not sure if my work colleague knows.

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Garth
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Garth » Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:08 am



Apparently bollocks because of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.

BTW seen this before?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/b ... the-border

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Moggy » Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:18 am



I bet the name of the source was Mr Joris Bohnson. And I bet Varadkar only found out about his secret deal when he saw that tweet.

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Preezy
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Preezy » Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:36 am

Question from an ignoramus - let's say we crashed out with no deal, what happens to the Irish border the very next day? Would people still be able to leave/enter the EU at will, or would they *have* to put up some sort of border?

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Garth
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Garth » Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:53 am


Double majority means both sides of the community in NI would have to want to leave the proposed backstop for that to happen, rather than the DUP swinging a veto around and forcing their will on the majority of NI. Of course the DUP wouldn't be interested in that.

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OrangeRKN
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by OrangeRKN » Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:56 am

Garth wrote:
Double majority means both sides of the community in NI would have to want to leave the proposed backstop for that to happen, rather than the DUP swinging a veto around and forcing their will on the majority of NI. Of course the DUP wouldn't be interested in that.


Amazing lack of self-awareness with that tweet. Literally describes why it's a good idea

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Moggy » Wed Oct 09, 2019 11:10 am

Preezy wrote:Question from an ignoramus - let's say we crashed out with no deal, what happens to the Irish border the very next day? Would people still be able to leave/enter the EU at will, or would they *have* to put up some sort of border?


No deal supporters will tell you that they want to obey WTO rules and that “we wouldn’t put up a hard border! The EU can do it if they want!!!!!”

In reality under WTO rules there would have to be a hard border.

I doubt the border would be physically put up on day one though, it would take a long time to put up an actual physical fence/wall/minefield.

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Garth
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Garth » Wed Oct 09, 2019 11:11 am

Preezy wrote:Question from an ignoramus - let's say we crashed out with no deal, what happens to the Irish border the very next day? Would people still be able to leave/enter the EU at will, or would they *have* to put up some sort of border?

Customs checks along the border would be required and the Good Friday Agreement would be buggered by Brexit. You'd have calls for emergency negotiations to figure out an alternative solution but they'd still face the same issues being discussed today, so it's really better to just sort it out before Brexit happens and avoid more chaos.

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Rex Kramer
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Rex Kramer » Wed Oct 09, 2019 11:14 am

Preezy wrote:Question from an ignoramus - let's say we crashed out with no deal, what happens to the Irish border the very next day? Would people still be able to leave/enter the EU at will, or would they *have* to put up some sort of border?

As far as I'm aware the common travel area would still apply and so there wouldn't be restriction of people moving across the border. When it comes to goods though, the UK government have stated they will immediately remove all tariffs on goods coming from the EU into Northern Ireland for a temporary period. But that may not be reciprocated by the EU. But even with that, a border would be there which is against the GFA. But I guess no-one in the cabinet gives a flying strawberry float about that.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Moggy » Wed Oct 09, 2019 11:30 am

Rex Kramer wrote:
Preezy wrote:Question from an ignoramus - let's say we crashed out with no deal, what happens to the Irish border the very next day? Would people still be able to leave/enter the EU at will, or would they *have* to put up some sort of border?

As far as I'm aware the common travel area would still apply and so there wouldn't be restriction of people moving across the border. When it comes to goods though, the UK government have stated they will immediately remove all tariffs on goods coming from the EU into Northern Ireland for a temporary period. But that may not be reciprocated by the EU. But even with that, a border would be there which is against the GFA. But I guess no-one in the cabinet gives a flying strawberry float about that.


The UK can remove tariffs, but we can't do it just for goods coming from the Republic into Northern Ireland.

European Union and World Trade Organization checks would be mandatory on both sides of the Irish border in the event of no-deal Brexit, one of the world’s leading experts on customs has said.

Michael Lux, a former head of customs legislation and procedures at the European commission, said the UK would have to impose customs checks and tariffs on the northern side of the border, despite claims to the contrary by Brexiters.

Under WTO rules, the UK could opt for zero tariffs, but it would be obliged to offer this free-trade deal to every other country. This would mean cheap food and dairy products, which currently attract high tariffs, from countries such as Brazil or New Zealand, and might also lead to chlorinated chicken from the US ending up on British supermarket shelves.

“It would kill UK farming,” said Lux. He also said Brexiters who claim the UK won’t impose checks in Northern Ireland are naive.

“If you do not apply tariffs, you would be in breach of WTO rules. One of the rules – the most-favoured nation, article 3 – is that if you apply a lower duty to one nation, you have to apply it to all members, and if the UK did that in Northern Ireland it would have to apply that right across the UK,” he said.

“I am not sure the UK would want to do this, as it would lose a lot of income and would disadvantage its own businesses.”

David Phinnemore, a professor of European politics at Queen’s University Belfast, said the Brexiter argument that there could be a free-for-all on the northern side of the border as a means of ensuring an open border after Brexit was disingenuous. “This argument, that the UK can simply forgo border controls, fails to factor in what that means for any country they subsequently want to make a deal with,” he said.

If goods were let into Northern Ireland from the republic on a preferential basis, countries from France to China would complain, said Phinnemore.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... eal-brexit

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Garth
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Garth » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:56 pm

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Garth
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Garth » Wed Oct 09, 2019 2:02 pm


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Rex Kramer
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3
by Rex Kramer » Wed Oct 09, 2019 2:10 pm

One nation conservativism (probably not a word) is dead in the water. It was a sham to begin with to try to paper of the real views of the majority of conservatives but the last couple of years have really been the nail the coffin.


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