Brexit Thread 3 - Project Reality

[Tineash]

Yeah see this is the crux of my criticism of the LDs. They seem to have two key tentpoles; Anti-Brexit and Anti-Corbyn, and I'm beginning to doubt that they will choose to prioritise the first over the second.

Now, you can organise a party around being Anti-Corbyn, and you will get votes for it. But being Anti-Brexit is performing a critical function for the LDs, providing some much-needed moral bleach to help wash away awkward questions about their recent political record, mainly with regards to austerity but also a myriad of other coalition-era policies that they supported.

If, when forced to choose it's Corbynism they block and not Brexit, then we're left with the uncomfortable truth that the LD party is now a wholly Cameroon collection of conservative liberals and liberal conservatives. And I'm pretty sure that the politics of 2010-2015 is a dead end. It deserves to be a dead end.

[Lex-Man]

If there is another we may get to a point where the Lib Dems hold the balance of power. It'll be interesting to see what happens if they do.

[Moggy]

So Corbyn has said he would lead a caretaker government, delay Brexit and call a GE. Apparently Jo Swinson said its a no go for her. Fortunately the SNP seem to be warm to the idea.

Its literally as good a plan as anyone could have at this point to stop a no deal hard Brexit. The Lib Dems should get behind the idea. They would likely gain a host of seats in a GE and a second referendum would be almost inevitable if the SNP, Labour and the Lib Dems could form a majority, at least on that particular issue.

I can’t speak for Swinson but for me the issue is a massive lack of trust in Corbyn when it comes to Brexit.

I notice it says “delay Brexit and call a GE”. The Lib Dem’s want a referendum not a GE. Is Corbyn promising a referendum after a GE? If so, what options would Corbyn put on the referendum?

If it comes down to Johnson’s “No Deal, close Parliament” v Corbyn’s “delay Brexit, call a GE” then yeah Corbyn is the better option. But it’s not a great option.

[satriales]

So Corbyn has said he would lead a caretaker government, delay Brexit and call a GE. Apparently Jo Swinson said its a no go for her. Fortunately the SNP seem to be warm to the idea.

Its literally as good a plan as anyone could have at this point to stop a no deal hard Brexit. The Lib Dems should get behind the idea. They would likely gain a host of seats in a GE and a second referendum would be almost inevitable if the SNP, Labour and the Lib Dems could form a majority, at least on that particular issue.

I can’t speak for Swinson but for me the issue is a massive lack of trust in Corbyn when it comes to Brexit.

I notice it says “delay Brexit and call a GE”. The Lib Dem’s want a referendum not a GE. Is Corbyn promising a referendum after a GE? If so, what options would Corbyn put on the referendum?

If it comes down to Johnson’s “No Deal, close Parliament” v Corbyn’s “delay Brexit, call a GE” then yeah Corbyn is the better option. But it’s not a great option.

The main purpose here is to get an extension and stop a No Deal Brexit. If the Lib Dem's refuse because they don't want it to lead to a GE then we're just going to end up leaving with no deal, and a GE shortly after that anyway.

[Moggy]

The main purpose here is to get an extension and stop a No Deal Brexit. If the Lib Dem's refuse because they don't want it to lead to a GE then we're just going to end up leaving with no deal, and a GE shortly after that anyway.

I think we are all in agreement that an extension is needed.

But this Corbyn plan doesn't stop a No Deal Brexit. If it works then it may only delay No Deal until after Johnson wins a General Election.

For the Lib Dems they have already been burned by supporting an unpopular PM. What advantages for them or their aims is there in propping up a short term Corbyn government if all that happens is a GE that the Tories win? They've already pissed off the left during the coalition years, then they piss off the right by putting Corbyn (even just as a short term measure) into Number 10?

They might go for that if it was a way of stopping Brexit, but is there any guarantee of that? In the GE that follows Johnson will go all out on a No Deal platform, Corbyn will probably be offering a referendum but there are no guarantees that he would allow Remain to be an option in that referendum.

So the Lib Dems could well end up delaying Brexit only to end up with the taint of Corbyn all over them and a month or two later getting a government that either supports No Deal or supports a No Deal/Deal referendum. There are not many wins for them there.

[Tineash]

The only way to permanently prevent no deal is to revoke article 50 or to agree a deal. This parliament isn't capable of either of those things. All roads lead to a general election.

[Moggy]

And after saying all of that, I have now seen this:

twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1161751909788782594

Now that’s much much much better from Corbyn. He’s set out what he would do and has confirmed Remain would be an option.

There’s still the risk that Johnson would win a GE, but I can get behind that plan from Corbyn. We don’t have many other options.

So ignore what I said before, the LDs might fear getting into bed with Corbyn but for the good of the country they should go with this.

[Cuttooth]

The Lib Dems can't both still consider the harm they helped cause in their coalition with the Tories to have been in the national interest of fixing the economy and dismiss working with Corbyn in the national interest of stopping Brexit/no deal.

"We won't get into bed with Corbyn because we got burned the last time we did something similar although we're still proud of that and you can't call us out on it."

Doesn't really fly with me.

[Winckle]

twitter.com/david_cameron/status/642984909980725248

twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1159134111979716608

Lib Dems are Cameronite tories.

[BID0]

I would have said that the Lib Dems are mostly comprised of Chuka Umunna type centre rights so they're not compatible with a Corbyn led Labour that's left of centre. I said in the Politics thread they wouldn't back Corbyn even if it meant no deal.

But then that letter looks like Corbyn may have got them on side as he wouldn't have initiated that unless he had a good idea that he could get the numbers for it to be successful. SNP wanted another independence referendum in return. Perhaps the Lib Dems wanted remain on the Brexit ballot.

[Moggy]

I would have said that the Lib Dems are mostly comprised of Chuka Umunna type centre rights so they're not compatible with a Corbyn led Labour that's left of centre. I said in the Politics thread they wouldn't back Corbyn even if it meant no deal.

But then that letter looks like Corbyn may have got them on side as he wouldn't have initiated that unless he had a good idea that he could get the numbers for it to be successful. SNP wanted another independence referendum in return. Perhaps the Lib Dems wanted remain on the Brexit ballot.

I agree with that. The Lib Dems are a weird mix of centre-right and centre-lefts, I don't think they are compatible with Corbyn or Johnson, both are too "extreme" for them.

You'd hope that they would be willing to work with another party if it helps achieve the LDs current main aim though. I am sceptical of Corbyn when it comes to Brexit, but his letter clearly states a referendum with a Remain option. I don't see them getting a better offer than that.

[Rex Kramer]

My concern over calling a GE (even though it seems the only way forward) is I think Cummings is considerably smarter than anyone else. I can see this election being utterly life sapping, the most base arguments being used and the phrase 'enemy of the people' being tossed around to all and sundry. The very worst aspects of Britain (and by that I mean England) will be at the forefront, it's going to be a strawberry floating mess.

[Moggy]

My concern over calling a GE (even though it seems the only way forward) is I think Cummings is considerably smarter than anyone else. I can see this election being utterly life sapping, the most base arguments being used and the phrase 'enemy of the people' being tossed around to all and sundry. The very worst aspects of Britain (and by that I mean England) will be at the forefront, it's going to be a strawberry floating mess.

Yep.

And yet it’s the only realistic hope we have.

[Christopher]

Installing Cummings, is the only reason I think there will be a snap election soon. Like Rex says, he will manipulate the voters with a very bleak rhetoric.

We've already heard his voice through Johnson with the parliament and the EU being the ones stopping us from leaving.

[Squinty]

My concern over calling a GE (even though it seems the only way forward) is I think Cummings is considerably smarter than anyone else. I can see this election being utterly life sapping, the most base arguments being used and the phrase 'enemy of the people' being tossed around to all and sundry. The very worst aspects of Britain (and by that I mean England) will be at the forefront, it's going to be a strawberry floating mess.

He excels at this sort of thing. It's slightly worrying.

[Outrunner]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... government

The Lib Dems have rejected the offer

[Hexx]

I would have said that the Lib Dems are mostly comprised of Chuka Umunna type centre rights so they're not compatible with a Corbyn led Labour that's left of centre. I said in the Politics thread they wouldn't back Corbyn even if it meant no deal.

But then that letter looks like Corbyn may have got them on side as he wouldn't have initiated that unless he had a good idea that he could get the numbers for it to be successful. SNP wanted another independence referendum in return. Perhaps the Lib Dems wanted remain on the Brexit ballot.

I agree with that. The Lib Dems are a weird mix of centre-right and centre-lefts, I don't think they are compatible with Corbyn or Johnson, both are too "extreme" for them.

You'd hope that they would be willing to work with another party if it helps achieve the LDs current main aim though. I am sceptical of Corbyn when it comes to Brexit, but his letter clearly states a referendum with a Remain option. I don't see them getting a better offer than that.

They want a VONC and then caretaker government to hold a referendum.

Labs offering a government to call a GE, and if they win they negotiate Lexit, and the hold a referendum were they’ll support Lexit or remain depending on the deal.

Would you put your faith in Labour given Corbyns defeat in much pretty every major election (and downward trend) and current amazingly low polls?

PC and I think SNP have both said it should be referendum rather than GE (and that’s more likely to get cross party support from Tories) but have said they’ll discuss with Lab rather than LibDems outright rejection

[Moggy]

I would have said that the Lib Dems are mostly comprised of Chuka Umunna type centre rights so they're not compatible with a Corbyn led Labour that's left of centre. I said in the Politics thread they wouldn't back Corbyn even if it meant no deal.

But then that letter looks like Corbyn may have got them on side as he wouldn't have initiated that unless he had a good idea that he could get the numbers for it to be successful. SNP wanted another independence referendum in return. Perhaps the Lib Dems wanted remain on the Brexit ballot.

I agree with that. The Lib Dems are a weird mix of centre-right and centre-lefts, I don't think they are compatible with Corbyn or Johnson, both are too "extreme" for them.

You'd hope that they would be willing to work with another party if it helps achieve the LDs current main aim though. I am sceptical of Corbyn when it comes to Brexit, but his letter clearly states a referendum with a Remain option. I don't see them getting a better offer than that.

They want a VONC and then caretaker government to hold a referendum.

Labs offering a government to call a GE, and if they win they negotiate Lexit, and the hold a referendum were they’ll support Lexit or remain depending on the deal.

Would you put your faith in Labour given Corbyns defeat in much pretty every major election (and downward trend) and current amazingly low polls?

PC and I think SNP have both said it should be referendum rather than GE (and that’s more likely to get cross party support from Tories) but have said they’ll discuss with Lab rather than LibDems outright rejection

I wouldn't put any faith in Corbyn.

But if his offer is a GE with a promise (if Labour win) of a referendum with a Remain option, then I am not seeing many other realistic options.

If the Lib Dems, PC and SNP want a referendum and not a GE, then great. But they are going to fail with that, most (if not all) Tories will vote against it and there are quite a few Labour MPs that would also vote against it.

I just don't think the numbers are there for a referendum before a GE.

[Tineash]

There's no way no chance that a caretaker government holds together long enough to have a second referendum - a months-long process. Imagine the howling firestorm of fury from ~80% of the press.

[Hexx]

There's no way no chance that a caretaker government holds together long enough to have a second referendum - a months-long process. Imagine the howling firestorm of fury from ~80% of the press.

Any there’s no chance of a stable government coming out of the 5 way tie (4 if you assume BJ will soak up BP)

And that’s why people have said no party leader should lead and it should ‘moderate, cross parry respected’ grandees of parties.

A referendum is arguably a better way out

Is it a great idea? Course not. There are no magic solutions to this.

But if the immediate concern is to stop No deal it’s more ‘agnostic’ than other plans and got more chance of cross parry support than

Corbyns plan. But Lab have said they won’t back a plan that doesn’t have Corbyn as leader...

I expect neither will happen with both sides blaming the other for refusing to compromise