Brexit Thread 3 - Project Reality

[Garth]

twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1161922821045522432

[Hexx]

FT take

Jeremy Corbyn has made his play. It was the obvious move and the smart one from a party political stance. Whether it advances the cause of preventing a no-deal Brexit is far more debatable. But for a man who has been open that stopping Brexit is not his priority this is well-calculated gambit.
As a ploy to stop a no-deal Brexit, the odds are against this move but to gain an advantage for the Labour party, it is perfectly pitched. By calling on all the other parties and potential Brexit rebels to support him in a temporary caretaker government, one created only to seek an Article 50 extension and then call a general election, Mr Corbyn has effectively challenged them to make good on their vocal opposition to no deal. He has also sought to reclaim the leadership of the parliamentary and national campaign against no deal.
Most particularly, he has put the Liberal Democrats in a very difficult position. Their new leader Jo Swinson has been clear that she could not support putting the Labour leader into Number 10. The Lib Dems have made significant inroads into the Labour vote by successfully portraying themselves as the only UK-wide Remain party. Holding this position is key to their electoral strategy.
Now Mr Corbyn has them in a trap. If they support him he reclaims the Remainer mantle and leads the opposition to no deal. He has also pledged to go into an election promising a new referendum, with Remain as an option, thereby giving Remain supporters less reason not to back Labour. If his pitch fails and there is a no-deal Brexit at the end of October, he can blame the Liberal Democrats, telling Remainers that Ms Swinson’s party let them down. (An added bonus was blunting the announcement on Thursday of the latest Tory defector, Sarah Wollaston the senior backbench MP, to her ranks) A second tactical consideration for Ms Swinson is that many of the Lib Dem’s key targets are Tory seats and she will know the potency of an attack line claiming that she will put Mr Corbyn in power.
There is one further objective of Mr Corbyn’s move. He is asserting his legitimate claim to be the first port of call for any caretaker government — which can be formed only if MPs succeed in voting down Boris Johnson in the confidence vote the Labour leader plans to call. As the Leader of the Opposition he cannot allow himself to be marginalised. It would be to acknowledge that he was Labour’s problem and would encourage more leadership challenges from within his own party. He would prefer the initiative to fail than see it succeed under someone else.
Mr Corbyn is also right in that replacing Mr Johnson rapidly is the only sure way to stop a no-deal Brexit. None of the other paths guarantee success. By acting quickly, the Labour leader is challenging others to face up to this.
He has now made clear that the only path to bringing down Mr Johnson in time is his. By doing so he is calling the bluff of all those screaming about the need to prevent no deal by asking them to prove it is truly the most important issue for them. He can do this because Brexit is not the key issue for him. A bad Brexit may be his best path to power. He is no Remainer. He does not believe in blocking Brexit but in securing a better deal. The upshot is that Mr Corbyn can take the risk.
His Remainer opponents do still have one argument, which is that even if the other main parties were prepared to back him as caretaker, his is too toxic for them to get the independents and rebel Tories they need to make the proposition viable. It is hard to see some of the independent MPs who left Labour during his leadership agreeing to put him in office (and some of them are also Brexit supporters). Likewise, his presence reduces the number of possible Tory rebels. The numbers are so tight that four or five MPs can make all the difference. The Lib Dem line that Mr Corbyn cannot unify the anti no-deal forces in sufficient numbers is probably true, especially at this stage. Tory opponents — like Philip Hammond, the former chancellor — are unlikely to bring down the government while they still see an alternative path in seeking to legislate against no deal.
The best hope for the Lib Dems is for those Tories and independents who are not prepared to tolerate a Corbyn caretaker government to speak out clearly to validate Ms Swinson’s position that the Labour leader cannot assemble enough support. If they do not, she may be forced to reconsider her stance.
The bottom line is that while the numbers may not stack up, Brexit is not the ball game for Mr Corbyn. His concern is getting to power and pursuing his transformational political agenda. He has put himself back at the centre of the opposition to Mr Johnson and given himself a stick with which to beat the Lib Dems in Remainer strongholds. Mr Corbyn may be putting party interests ahead of blocking a no-deal Brexit but for him there is only upside.

[more heat than light]

Imagine if those arseholes stopped all the politicking and got on with trying to stop this absolute shitshow.

[Moggy]

Imagine if those arseholes stopped all the politicking and got on with trying to stop this absolute shitshow.

Politicians stop politicking?

I guess anything is possible, but I just can't see it.

[Cuttooth]

twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1161922821045522432

It would be quite funny/immensely tragic if everyone signed up to this plan except the Lib Dems.

[more heat than light]

Imagine if those arseholes stopped all the politicking and got on with trying to stop this absolute shitshow.

Politicians stop politicking?

I guess anything is possible, but I just can't see it.

You know what I mean. Labs and Libs both want the same thing, just strawberry floating get on with it.

[Moggy]

Imagine if those arseholes stopped all the politicking and got on with trying to stop this absolute shitshow.

Politicians stop politicking?

I guess anything is possible, but I just can't see it.

You know what I mean. Labs and Libs both want the same thing, just strawberry floating get on with it.

I wasn't having a go, just pointing out that politicians are unlikely to ever stop politicking.

[Moggy]

The UK must accept US food standards as part of any future trade deal with Washington, the head of America's farming lobby has said.

Zippy Duvall, head of the American Farm Bureau, said US farmers were keen to trade with their British "friends".

But he said fears over practices such as washing chicken in chlorine and using genetically modified (GM) crops were not "science-based".

The US has said the UK will be "first in line" for a trade deal after Brexit.

But some fear the UK will have to compromise on standards currently enshrined in EU law in order to secure a deal with Washington.

Mr Duvall, himself a poultry farmer in Georgia, said he wanted to have "a conversation" about US food standards given the concerns in the UK.

One of the most controversial practices is washing chicken with chlorine to kill germs, which is banned in the EU. This is not because the wash itself is harmful but over fears that treating meat with chlorine at the end allows poorer hygiene elsewhere in the production process.

"You know, here in America we treat our water with chlorine," Mr Duvall told the BBC's Today programme.

"So there is no scientific basis that says that washing poultry with a chlorine wash just to be safe of whatever pathogens might be on that chicken as it was prepared for the market, should be taken away.

"If there was something wrong with it our federal inspection systems would not be allowing us to use that," he added.

In London this week, Donald Trump's national security advisor John Bolton suggested that the US could strike trade deals with the UK after Brexit on a "sector-by -sector basis" to speed up the process.

But asked whether he could envisage a trade deal with the UK that did not include agriculture, Mr Duvall said it would be seen as a betrayal by US farmers.

"To have a trade treaty and not discuss agriculture would be turning your back on rural America and that's where a big part of our population lives."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49353220

America is basically run by lobby groups. If the farming lobby want us to accept their standards then we either have to accept or not have a deal, the US politicians will do what the lobby groups tell them.

[more heat than light]

I know.

I get infuriated with this kind of thing, people's lives are at stake.

[Jenuall]

Zippy Duvall? What the strawberry float kind of name is that?

We are going to be absolute strawberry floated from all angles by any kind of US trade deal, and pretty much anyone else we need to be working with going forward for that matter.

If they even strawberry floating agree to negotiate with us at all that is.

[Drumstick]

If we end up adopting US food standards then I'll be seriously reviewing what I eat, and without question I'll be going vegetarian.

[Jenuall]

I've been going more and more veggie over the last year or so anyway, but yeah this would be something that would absolutely push that transition into overdrive.

[Dual]

The UK must accept US food standards as part of any future trade deal with Washington, the head of America's farming lobby has said.

Zippy Duvall, head of the American Farm Bureau, said US farmers were keen to trade with their British "friends".

But he said fears over practices such as washing chicken in chlorine and using genetically modified (GM) crops were not "science-based".

The US has said the UK will be "first in line" for a trade deal after Brexit.

But some fear the UK will have to compromise on standards currently enshrined in EU law in order to secure a deal with Washington.

Mr Duvall, himself a poultry farmer in Georgia, said he wanted to have "a conversation" about US food standards given the concerns in the UK.

One of the most controversial practices is washing chicken with chlorine to kill germs, which is banned in the EU. This is not because the wash itself is harmful but over fears that treating meat with chlorine at the end allows poorer hygiene elsewhere in the production process.

"You know, here in America we treat our water with chlorine," Mr Duvall told the BBC's Today programme.

"So there is no scientific basis that says that washing poultry with a chlorine wash just to be safe of whatever pathogens might be on that chicken as it was prepared for the market, should be taken away.

"If there was something wrong with it our federal inspection systems would not be allowing us to use that," he added.

In London this week, Donald Trump's national security advisor John Bolton suggested that the US could strike trade deals with the UK after Brexit on a "sector-by -sector basis" to speed up the process.

But asked whether he could envisage a trade deal with the UK that did not include agriculture, Mr Duvall said it would be seen as a betrayal by US farmers.

"To have a trade treaty and not discuss agriculture would be turning your back on rural America and that's where a big part of our population lives."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49353220

America is basically run by lobby groups. If the farming lobby want us to accept their standards then we either have to accept or not have a deal, the US politicians will do what the lobby groups tell them.

We will not be bullied by the EU anymore!

[Garth]

twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/1161972381130350593

twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1161976351731138560

[Dual]

Lib Dems the kingmakers again.

[Winckle]

twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1161922821045522432

It would be quite funny/immensely tragic if everyone signed up to this plan except the Lib Dems.

The CUKTIG(M-L) Independents Ltd are also not on board.

[BID0]

The Avengers

[Lex-Man]

In terms of popularity a no deal Brexit might actually do wonders for the Lib Dems. It would be interesting to see their discussions on how to move forward. I hope them and CUKblah get behind Corbyns plan if the rebel Tories agree as I really don't want a Hard Brexit. Unless it's that movie.

[Garth]

twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1162000845656993793

twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1161984289510252546

[Hexx]

twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1162000845656993793

twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1161984289510252546

Yeah

twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1161976351731138560

General tone is that no one wants this, but the LibDems were wrong to reject out of hand immediately. Still it's fired up the rampant Corbynites across media. The problem is solved now except for those pesky designated villains.