Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain

Fed up talking videogames? Why?

GRpredicts: Will Brexit be delayed again?

Yes
71
59%
No
49
41%
 
Total votes: 120
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captain red dog
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by captain red dog » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:45 am

I can almost guarantee Boris will sign a deal that will piss off hard core leavers, and this is just his preamble to make it look like he has played hard ball.

Most political pundits felt a deal was close to 100% earlier in the week.

He will sign a "weak" deal for brexiteers but it will be sold as "see, we held all the cards and the EU caved in".

I believe literally nothing this government tell us.

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Lex-Man
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Lex-Man » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:52 am

captain red dog wrote:I can almost guarantee Boris will sign a deal that will piss off hard core leavers, and this is just his preamble to make it look like he has played hard ball.

Most political pundits felt a deal was close to 100% earlier in the week.

He will sign a "weak" deal for brexiteers but it will be sold as "see, we held all the cards and the EU caved in".

I believe literally nothing this government tell us.


I kind of agree although I'm far from certain. Also I really don't think that brinkmanship is a good negotiation strategy. It comes down to how much does Johnson want to stay in power and how much does he just want his friends to make a bunch of money.

Amusement under late capitalism is the prolongation of work.
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Rocsteady
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Rocsteady » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:13 am

DML wrote:
Return_of_the_STAR wrote:I'm not convinced Boris will go for anything other than a 'canada style' deal. Obviously the EU will not agree to this, I also fail to see how it will work. Boris has said too often that if we don't get this then we will walk away and I honestly think he's serious. I'm not sure he would be able to cope with doing a u turn and agreeing to something that ties us into the EU.


strawberry floating hell.

Earth to ROTS.

He DOESN'T WANT A DEAL. Boris Johnson is a disaster capitalist. The worse the UK does, the more money he makes.

All this will they won't they bollocks...

If you're so sure of this you should use every penny you own to bet short positions on the relevant funds. You can cash out in less than three months and be considerably more well off. Hell, take out loans to do so - you can pay them back with interest in less than 90 days.

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Return_of_the_STAR
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Return_of_the_STAR » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:50 am

DML wrote:
Return_of_the_STAR wrote:I'm not convinced Boris will go for anything other than a 'canada style' deal. Obviously the EU will not agree to this, I also fail to see how it will work. Boris has said too often that if we don't get this then we will walk away and I honestly think he's serious. I'm not sure he would be able to cope with doing a u turn and agreeing to something that ties us into the EU.


strawberry floating hell.

Earth to ROTS.

He DOESN'T WANT A DEAL. Boris Johnson is a disaster capitalist. The worse the UK does, the more money he makes.

All this will they won't they bollocks...


My whole point was that he doesn't want anything more than a Canadian style deal.

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DML
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by DML » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:11 pm

Rocsteady wrote:
DML wrote:
Return_of_the_STAR wrote:I'm not convinced Boris will go for anything other than a 'canada style' deal. Obviously the EU will not agree to this, I also fail to see how it will work. Boris has said too often that if we don't get this then we will walk away and I honestly think he's serious. I'm not sure he would be able to cope with doing a u turn and agreeing to something that ties us into the EU.


strawberry floating hell.

Earth to ROTS.

He DOESN'T WANT A DEAL. Boris Johnson is a disaster capitalist. The worse the UK does, the more money he makes.

All this will they won't they bollocks...

If you're so sure of this you should use every penny you own to bet short positions on the relevant funds. You can cash out in less than three months and be considerably more well off. Hell, take out loans to do so - you can pay them back with interest in less than 90 days.


Because I cant take the risk Im wrong?

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Rocsteady
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Rocsteady » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:36 pm

DML wrote:
Rocsteady wrote:
DML wrote:
Return_of_the_STAR wrote:I'm not convinced Boris will go for anything other than a 'canada style' deal. Obviously the EU will not agree to this, I also fail to see how it will work. Boris has said too often that if we don't get this then we will walk away and I honestly think he's serious. I'm not sure he would be able to cope with doing a u turn and agreeing to something that ties us into the EU.


strawberry floating hell.

Earth to ROTS.

He DOESN'T WANT A DEAL. Boris Johnson is a disaster capitalist. The worse the UK does, the more money he makes.

All this will they won't they bollocks...

If you're so sure of this you should use every penny you own to bet short positions on the relevant funds. You can cash out in less than three months and be considerably more well off. Hell, take out loans to do so - you can pay them back with interest in less than 90 days.


Because I cant take the risk Im wrong?

You sounded that way in the above.

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DML
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by DML » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:13 am

Rocsteady wrote:
DML wrote:
Rocsteady wrote:
DML wrote:
Return_of_the_STAR wrote:I'm not convinced Boris will go for anything other than a 'canada style' deal. Obviously the EU will not agree to this, I also fail to see how it will work. Boris has said too often that if we don't get this then we will walk away and I honestly think he's serious. I'm not sure he would be able to cope with doing a u turn and agreeing to something that ties us into the EU.


strawberry floating hell.

Earth to ROTS.

He DOESN'T WANT A DEAL. Boris Johnson is a disaster capitalist. The worse the UK does, the more money he makes.

All this will they won't they bollocks...

If you're so sure of this you should use every penny you own to bet short positions on the relevant funds. You can cash out in less than three months and be considerably more well off. Hell, take out loans to do so - you can pay them back with interest in less than 90 days.


Because I cant take the risk Im wrong?

You sounded that way in the above.


Because I'm not willing to put my house on it I'm wrong to say that?

Get outta town.

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Rocsteady
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Rocsteady » Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:36 am

DML wrote:
Rocsteady wrote:
DML wrote:
Rocsteady wrote:
DML wrote:
Return_of_the_STAR wrote:I'm not convinced Boris will go for anything other than a 'canada style' deal. Obviously the EU will not agree to this, I also fail to see how it will work. Boris has said too often that if we don't get this then we will walk away and I honestly think he's serious. I'm not sure he would be able to cope with doing a u turn and agreeing to something that ties us into the EU.


strawberry floating hell.

Earth to ROTS.

He DOESN'T WANT A DEAL. Boris Johnson is a disaster capitalist. The worse the UK does, the more money he makes.

All this will they won't they bollocks...

If you're so sure of this you should use every penny you own to bet short positions on the relevant funds. You can cash out in less than three months and be considerably more well off. Hell, take out loans to do so - you can pay them back with interest in less than 90 days.


Because I cant take the risk Im wrong?

You sounded that way in the above.


Because I'm not willing to put my house on it I'm wrong to say that?

Get outta town.

K, I just wouldn't be a dick and shout at others with such certainty when you yourself aren't certain.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Moggy » Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:24 am


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Squinty
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Squinty » Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:32 am

Fairly sure the electoral commission just ruled there was no involvement. Which is.....interesting.

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DML
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by DML » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:00 pm

Rocsteady wrote:
DML wrote:
Rocsteady wrote:
DML wrote:
Rocsteady wrote:
DML wrote:
Return_of_the_STAR wrote:I'm not convinced Boris will go for anything other than a 'canada style' deal. Obviously the EU will not agree to this, I also fail to see how it will work. Boris has said too often that if we don't get this then we will walk away and I honestly think he's serious. I'm not sure he would be able to cope with doing a u turn and agreeing to something that ties us into the EU.


strawberry floating hell.

Earth to ROTS.

He DOESN'T WANT A DEAL. Boris Johnson is a disaster capitalist. The worse the UK does, the more money he makes.

All this will they won't they bollocks...

If you're so sure of this you should use every penny you own to bet short positions on the relevant funds. You can cash out in less than three months and be considerably more well off. Hell, take out loans to do so - you can pay them back with interest in less than 90 days.


Because I cant take the risk Im wrong?

You sounded that way in the above.


Because I'm not willing to put my house on it I'm wrong to say that?

Get outta town.

K, I just wouldn't be a dick and shout at others with such certainty when you yourself aren't certain.


Dude its a forum. I'm expressing an opinion. I am certain but not bet the house certain, I am not that sure of anything.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Moggy » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:04 pm

Squinty wrote:Fairly sure the electoral commission just ruled there was no involvement. Which is.....interesting.


Oh well, if the electoral commission thinks it's all fine..... ;)

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Meep
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Meep » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:53 pm

Interesting interview with ex-FB advertising quant Antonia Martinez here.

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cH ... x&hl=en-GB

He seems to be of the view that there is little evidence of the effectiveness of this kind of advertising to sway opinion and that it's in the interests of the tech industry to oversell it, which I kind of suspected.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Moggy » Sun Oct 18, 2020 1:26 pm

Meep wrote:Interesting interview with ex-FB advertising quant Antonia Martinez here.

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cH ... x&hl=en-GB

He seems to be of the view that there is little evidence of the effectiveness of this kind of advertising to sway opinion and that it's in the interests of the tech industry to oversell it, which I kind of suspected.


The amount of people I've seen adopt increasingly radicalised positions since Facebook started suggests to me that Martinez is talking bollocks.

Literal genocides have been caused by Facebook, it's hardly preposterous to suggest it had a big impact on the Brexit vote.

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Oblomov Boblomov
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Oblomov Boblomov » Sun Oct 18, 2020 1:32 pm

The most powerful thing you can give an insecure, bitter, bigoted fool is the reassurance that other people feel the same way as them.

Unfortunately, there are huge numbers of these people, pocketed all around the country, connected by social media and online interactive news outlets.

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Squinty
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Squinty » Sun Oct 18, 2020 1:50 pm

Moggy wrote:
Meep wrote:Interesting interview with ex-FB advertising quant Antonia Martinez here.

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cH ... x&hl=en-GB

He seems to be of the view that there is little evidence of the effectiveness of this kind of advertising to sway opinion and that it's in the interests of the tech industry to oversell it, which I kind of suspected.


The amount of people I've seen adopt increasingly radicalised positions since Facebook started suggests to me that Martinez is talking bollocks.

Literal genocides have been caused by Facebook, it's hardly preposterous to suggest it had a big impact on the Brexit vote.


I don't know how anyone could say there is no evidence. It's literally right there.

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Rocsteady
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Rocsteady » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:59 pm

Advertising is a soft influence, including Facebook ads. That's not to say that they dont have an impact- they clearly do, which is why almost every major corporation does online advertising - but the impact isn't necessarily any greater than using TV, radio, magazine, etc, ads would be.

Social media itself can be problematic in helping to spread conspiracy theories and malicious viewpoints but that's separate from the above viewpoint on advertising.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Moggy » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:43 pm

Rocsteady wrote:Advertising is a soft influence, including Facebook ads. That's not to say that they dont have an impact- they clearly do, which is why almost every major corporation does online advertising - but the impact isn't necessarily any greater than using TV, radio, magazine, etc, ads would be.

Social media itself can be problematic in helping to spread conspiracy theories and malicious viewpoints but that's separate from the above viewpoint on advertising.


I don't think that's true, especially with Cambridge Analytica. They micro-targeted the ads directly at the prejudices people had. It's not like seeing an advert on TV for a chocolate bar, it's something almost tailor made for the individual.

Propaganda on Facebook also gets shared around. People are far more likely to believe something their family and friends are sharing than some advert they see in a magazine.

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Jenuall
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Jenuall » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:50 pm

Facebook has a vested in downplaying the effectiveness of these things at moment, in reality there is little doubt that the social media campaign's had a measurable impact on the referendum

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Rocsteady
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Rocsteady » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:30 pm

Moggy wrote:
Rocsteady wrote:Advertising is a soft influence, including Facebook ads. That's not to say that they dont have an impact- they clearly do, which is why almost every major corporation does online advertising - but the impact isn't necessarily any greater than using TV, radio, magazine, etc, ads would be.

Social media itself can be problematic in helping to spread conspiracy theories and malicious viewpoints but that's separate from the above viewpoint on advertising.


I don't think that's true, especially with Cambridge Analytica. They micro-targeted the ads directly at the prejudices people had. It's not like seeing an advert on TV for a chocolate bar, it's something almost tailor made for the individual.

Propaganda on Facebook also gets shared around. People are far more likely to believe something their family and friends are sharing than some advert they see in a magazine.

It's interesting. There's a growing body of evidence that micro-targeting is actually more ineffective at changing behaviour, reflected by a number of large advertisers beginning to move away from that model.

The issue from a propoganda point of view becomes one of social salience. If I see Stormfront advertising on billboards, papers, primetime TV, etc. I can be sure that others have also seen them. So, if they position themselves well as friendly and, I dunno, a low tax party, I can confidently mention to others that maybe they aren't so bad - after all, we've all seen their smiling faces and nice pledges.

If, on the other hand, they only micro target me, I have no such confidence. There's no confidence in mind that I can go to the pub with randoms and mention SF seem cool as they may well have no idea who I'm talking about, or may only know them from other things.

Targeting ads is also extremely difficult to get right and companies such as Google typically are less accurate about you than you'd think. (You can search and see your Google profile - mine has even the basics like the my age range wrong). Think about all the gooseberry fool ads you're served throughout social media - are these tightly targeted to you? The majority still rely on the same insights as CA, so they should be incredibly accurate if we think that was a deciding factor.

Social media in general is certainly problematic in this area in general, and I'm not saying advertising isn't effective - it absolutely is. Just these methods employed by various political campaigns are far from the be all and end all that some now seem to think.

(As a quick note, Obama and others were micro targeting ads long before CA - these weren't new tactics).

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