Brexit Thread 3 - Project Reality

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Tomous
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Tomous » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:26 pm

How long do you think we'll last outside the EU before we eventually re-join on worse terms?

I really hope it happens within 20 years for my son's future :(

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Rex Kramer
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Rex Kramer » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:28 pm

I hope never because the condition of the country that will force that vote would be strawberry floating awful.

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Lex-Man
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Lex-Man » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:29 pm

Tomous wrote:How long do you think we'll last outside the EU before we eventually re-join on worse terms?

I really hope it happens within 20 years for my son's future :(


I think it's more likely we'll end up with a deal to rejoin the single market, so we'll have the four freedoms but no say in parliament. That said it's hard to say what's going to happen on that time scale.

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Oblomov Boblomov
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Oblomov Boblomov » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:31 pm

Tomous wrote:How long do you think we'll last outside the EU before we eventually re-join on worse terms?

I really hope it happens within 20 years for my son's future :(

Without Scottish constituencies in future general elections we'll be doomed to Tory rule for a good 20-30 years or so. Maybe by about 2050 if we're lucky?

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Tomous
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Tomous » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:32 pm

Lex-Man wrote:
Tomous wrote:How long do you think we'll last outside the EU before we eventually re-join on worse terms?

I really hope it happens within 20 years for my son's future :(


I think it's more likely we'll end up with a deal to rejoin the single market, so we'll have the four freedoms but no say in parliament. That said it's hard to say what's going to happen on that time scale.


Yeah, I think you're right, that is the more likely return if it ever happens.

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Cuttooth
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Cuttooth » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:38 pm

Yep that's how I see it going too. Who knows how long it will take.

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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Moggy » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:45 pm

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:Without Scottish constituencies in future general elections we'll be doomed to Tory rule for a good 20-30 years or so. Maybe by about 2050 if we're lucky?


We're doomed anyway. Labour and the SNP don't look like they'd be willing to do a coalition.

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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Lex-Man » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:48 pm

Moggy wrote:
Oblomov Boblomov wrote:Without Scottish constituencies in future general elections we'll be doomed to Tory rule for a good 20-30 years or so. Maybe by about 2050 if we're lucky?


We're doomed anyway. Labour and the SNP don't look like they'd be willing to do a coalition.


We might get some kind of supply and demand arrangement.

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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Moggy » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:50 pm

Lex-Man wrote:
Moggy wrote:
Oblomov Boblomov wrote:Without Scottish constituencies in future general elections we'll be doomed to Tory rule for a good 20-30 years or so. Maybe by about 2050 if we're lucky?


We're doomed anyway. Labour and the SNP don't look like they'd be willing to do a coalition.


We might get some kind of supply and demand arrangement.


I doubt it. Labour don't seem keen on the idea of Scottish independence and the SNP would want a referendum as an absolute minimum.

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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Drumstick » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:53 pm

When the alternative is many, many more terms of Tory rule, yes, they most definitely would; they just won't outright say so now.

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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Lex-Man » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:55 pm

Moggy wrote:
Lex-Man wrote:
Moggy wrote:
Oblomov Boblomov wrote:Without Scottish constituencies in future general elections we'll be doomed to Tory rule for a good 20-30 years or so. Maybe by about 2050 if we're lucky?


We're doomed anyway. Labour and the SNP don't look like they'd be willing to do a coalition.


We might get some kind of supply and demand arrangement.


I doubt it. Labour don't seem keen on the idea of Scottish independence and the SNP would want a referendum as an absolute minimum.


To be fair any English party that agreed to a Scottish referendum and lost would get absolutely torn to shreds by the press, double if it was Labour. I think that with a hung parliament a Labour largest minority party could get the SNP and LDs on side for some stuff although it'd make it difficult. Would SNP vote for PR?

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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Moggy » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:59 pm

Drumstick wrote:When the alternative is many, many more terms of Tory rule, yes, they most definitely would; they just won't outright say so now.


They had the chance last year. Labour, SNP and Lib Dem's simply couldn't work together and instead handed Boris a massive victory.

Maybe a Labour without Corbyn will be more attractive to the SNP and/or Lib Dem's.

But if our only hope is the SNP teaming up with Labour, we are utterly strawberry floated long term.

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Oblomov Boblomov
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Oblomov Boblomov » Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:05 pm

Moggy wrote:
Drumstick wrote:When the alternative is many, many more terms of Tory rule, yes, they most definitely would; they just won't outright say so now.


They had the chance last year. Labour, SNP and Lib Dem's simply couldn't work together and instead handed Boris a massive victory.

Maybe a Labour without Corbyn will be more attractive to the SNP and/or Lib Dem's.

But if our only hope is the SNP teaming up with Labour, we are utterly strawberry floated long term.

Let's face it, that is our only hope.

I can't quite recall when it came to the SNP but I'm sure the Lib Dems offered a collaborative arrangement and it was rejected by Corbyn. You'd imagine a less left-wing ideology would be more inclined to agree to a similar proposal in future, so who knows what might be possible.

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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Cuttooth » Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:08 pm

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:
Moggy wrote:
Drumstick wrote:When the alternative is many, many more terms of Tory rule, yes, they most definitely would; they just won't outright say so now.


They had the chance last year. Labour, SNP and Lib Dem's simply couldn't work together and instead handed Boris a massive victory.

Maybe a Labour without Corbyn will be more attractive to the SNP and/or Lib Dem's.

But if our only hope is the SNP teaming up with Labour, we are utterly strawberry floated long term.

Let's face it, that is our only hope.

I can't quite recall when it came to the SNP but I'm sure the Lib Dems offered a collaborative arrangement and it was rejected by Corbyn. You'd imagine a less left-wing ideology would be more inclined to agree to a similar proposal in future, so who knows what might be possible.

The Lib Dems demanded a government not headed by the official Leader of the Opposition, they aren't exactly blameless for our current situation.

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Oblomov Boblomov
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Oblomov Boblomov » Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:20 pm

Cuttooth wrote:
Oblomov Boblomov wrote:
Moggy wrote:
Drumstick wrote:When the alternative is many, many more terms of Tory rule, yes, they most definitely would; they just won't outright say so now.


They had the chance last year. Labour, SNP and Lib Dem's simply couldn't work together and instead handed Boris a massive victory.

Maybe a Labour without Corbyn will be more attractive to the SNP and/or Lib Dem's.

But if our only hope is the SNP teaming up with Labour, we are utterly strawberry floated long term.

Let's face it, that is our only hope.

I can't quite recall when it came to the SNP but I'm sure the Lib Dems offered a collaborative arrangement and it was rejected by Corbyn. You'd imagine a less left-wing ideology would be more inclined to agree to a similar proposal in future, so who knows what might be possible.

The Lib Dems demanded a government not headed by the official Leader of the Opposition, they aren't exactly blameless for our current situation.

Can't really blame Corbyn for rejecting it then :lol: but he's gone now so the point remains that perhaps there is a greater possibility of it happening in future.

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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Moggy » Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:23 pm

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:
Cuttooth wrote:
Oblomov Boblomov wrote:
Moggy wrote:
Drumstick wrote:When the alternative is many, many more terms of Tory rule, yes, they most definitely would; they just won't outright say so now.


They had the chance last year. Labour, SNP and Lib Dem's simply couldn't work together and instead handed Boris a massive victory.

Maybe a Labour without Corbyn will be more attractive to the SNP and/or Lib Dem's.

But if our only hope is the SNP teaming up with Labour, we are utterly strawberry floated long term.

Let's face it, that is our only hope.

I can't quite recall when it came to the SNP but I'm sure the Lib Dems offered a collaborative arrangement and it was rejected by Corbyn. You'd imagine a less left-wing ideology would be more inclined to agree to a similar proposal in future, so who knows what might be possible.

The Lib Dems demanded a government not headed by the official Leader of the Opposition, they aren't exactly blameless for our current situation.

Can't really blame Corbyn for rejecting it then :lol: but he's gone now so the point remains that perhaps there is a greater possibility of it happening in future.


The Lib Dem's rejected a "rainbow" coalition in 2010. They also ruled out working with Miliband in 2015 (which was irrelevant in the end).

The DUP will work with the Tories as they have the same basic aims.

Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dem's have too many competing aims.

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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Drumstick » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:08 pm

How did they have a chance last year? Bozo and Co got like 380ish seats, more than enough for a majority.

If after a GE the breakdown was something like Labour 290, Conservatives 280, SNP 55, everyone else combined the remaining 25, there is no chance in hell that Labour and the SNP wouldn't eventually come to a deal.

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Oblomov Boblomov
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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Oblomov Boblomov » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:10 pm

Drumstick wrote:How did they have a chance last year? Bozo and Co got like 380ish seats, more than enough for a majority.

If after a GE the breakdown was something like Labour 290, Conservatives 280, SNP 55, everyone else combined the remaining 25, there is no chance in hell that Labour and the SNP wouldn't eventually come to a deal.

Votes were split across various non-Tory/Brexit parties because they couldn't reach an agreement.

Admittedly, it still probably wouldn't have made a difference overall, but at least the majority wouldn't have been so strong.

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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Moggy » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:37 pm

Drumstick wrote:How did they have a chance last year? Bozo and Co got like 380ish seats, more than enough for a majority.



Johnson removed the whip and kicked a load of Tories out of the party. He was running a minority government and even the DUP votes were not enough to defeat him on every single vote.

The other parties couldn't agree to work together and ended up agreeing for Johnson's request for a GE. He then obliterated everyone.

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PostRe: Brexit Thread 3 - The Dream is Dead, RIP Remain
by Cuttooth » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:44 pm

Yep. Even with the greatest post-war crisis looming (well, up until this year...) the opposition parties couldn't care enough to actually stop it by any means necessary.

Imagine the landscape today if the Single Market and Common Market 2.0 bills weren't shot down by the Lib Dems and TIGs in particular! Or if Labour had come to the obvious conclusion on Brexit eighteen months earlier than they did.


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