Consoles: The Last Generation (?)

PostConsoles: The Last Generation (?) by **Carlos** » Wed Jul 29, 2009 7:28 am

http://www.teletext.co.uk/gamecentral/features-reviews/32fdc2f40b7f76b269bd5fdf5b85878c/The+last+consoles.aspx

One of the only immutable laws in gaming is that every five or so years a new generation of consoles is released.

Since consoles cannot easily be upgraded it's the only way to incorporate new technology - not just in terms of graphics, but also storage formats, online and controllers.

By the normal scale of reckoning this would all be due to happen by 2011.

If new consoles really were going to come out in two years time, you'd expect to have heard about it by now - or at the very least by next E3.

However, it seems increasingly unlikely that any such thing will happen.

Despite what they might pretend, this does not seem to have been the original intention of any of the manufacturers. But either way this could be the last console generation ever...

There are two main reasons why this is all happening and both stem from an appalling lack of foresight.

The first is the cost of making games for the Xbox 360 and PS3, which seems to have been grossly underestimated and already put so many out of business.

The second is the Wii, which every games company ignored from the moment it was announced and most still try to pretend doesn't exist.

The end result of this folly is that the games industry simply can't afford to make more powerful consoles.

It'd just cost too much to make the games for them, especially when a format that is already a generation behind in power is selling much better.

Which is why a bundled version of Microsoft's Project Natal is almost certainly going to be the next Xbox - not some new uber-powerful console.

It might be brazenly stealing other people's ideas again, but repackaging the Xbox 360 with motion controls is entirely sensible in terms of business.

We'd be very surprised not to see Sony do something similar as well.

It might even tempt third party publishers to experiment more with motion controls, rather than just continuing on with their narrow range of ageing franchise.

Although it is a huge sea change in how the industry works, none of this is automatically good or bad news.

Within the next ten years cloud computing is likely to remove the need for hardware in the home anyway.

In fact we'd like to think that maybe this would put the focus even more on the games themselves, rather than the hardware they run on. But perhaps that's asking for a change too far...

Hmmm. I can see this generation of consoles lasting longer than expected, if only because launching new hardware at a higher price in the middle of a recession is just dumb. Id like to see this gen last for a few extra years, as in previous times devs only start to push a console towards the end of its life only for it to die and them having to re-learn all their coding for new architecture. Just look how much the PS2 got pushed by Shadow of the Colossus, or the GameCube by Resi 4; these are prime examples as to why we need to keep the 360, PS3 and Wii going a bit longer.

But the last generation ever? Cloud computing and OnLive is one thing but do you really see this taking off in the mass market? Nintendo, for example have only just introduced a whole new generation of people to gaming as a pastime and completely shifting the stardardised distribution model is going to just alienate them all, and most of us do like trade-ins which means it is doubtful we will see downloads becoming central either, at least not outside the portable realm.

I personally do not see onlive/cloud computing being a big success. Maybe one day when internet speeds have improved enough but they wouldn’t work at the moment (imo).

Last generation ever? I highly doubt it as there will be a demand for more powerful machines eventually. I think this generation will last a lot longer than usual but by 2012-2014 we should see the next generation. After all PC technology keeps moving forward and the console makers (Sony and Microsoft, probably not Nintendo) will want to compete with the shiny new graphics.

If Natal is a huge success, then maybe Nintendo will start to think a more graphically capable console is a good idea.

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To be honest, I'd be happy if there wasn't another console generation. I've got over a hundred games on 360 alone so unless a new console had full backwards compatibility, it'd kill me.

I actually dread the inevitable announcement of another console because of it. And I've had the 360 since it came out but to be honest, it seems like I've only had it five minutes. If a next gen console was announced within the next 2 years I'd feel incredibly ripped off as it would just feel way to soon.

I still don't think we've seen the best the current consoles can offer either. I think there's still a lot of power in them for the devs to unlock.

A large amount of people with this gen consoles don't have HD TV's, around 50% I think, to really get the get the advantages of the next gen your going to need HD so console makers should wait till more people have caught up. It's too early for full internet distribution consoles especially in the US where it's slower, more expensive and heavily limited.

More ram, and more graphics mussel won't make that much difference because developers are already complaining about the high price of development, so would be less willing to ramp up graphics. This could be offset slightly by allowing some kind of protected language such as Java or C#.

From my point of view I don't think it would make any difference to game play, we really need a break through in AI to push forward game mechanics to warrant a new generation.

A new generation will emerge it will just be a bit delayed. I expect the first machine to emerge for either Christmas 2011 or 2012. The only unknown is whether or not the new consoles will go for a massive leap in power as with the 360/PS3.

I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft's next platform will be based on a universal PC and Xbox format. You'll be able to buy a game and then us in in your console under the tv but then also use it on your computer and play your arcade titles on your laptop and such. The new Xbox itself will be basically be a small gaming PC for use in the living room. The fact that they are going to release Natal on both 360 and PC seems to indicate they have a joint vision for both platforms.

There's nothing stopping Sony releasing their own client programmes for PC and Mac as well, come to think of it, although I think they are less likely to make such a move.

I've said it before: don't hold your breath for another round of hardware consoles. I doubt very much that either Sony or MS have any appetite for the huge R&D/marketing investments necessary; it's just all gotten much too expensive (ask Sony). Cloud computing and OnLive might not be (quite) ready (yet), but this model is the future. Publishers and developers will always, always, always follow the money and the 'virtual game' market is the most attractive and potentially lucrative model available and promises a new age of massive - and safe - profits for those companies willing to invest (and many of the big name publishers are investing in OnLive, for instance - ever wondered why?).

Mark my words. If we do see a new - and I mean totally new, not merely a repackaged existing model - console it will most likely be no more than a set-top box, a receiver, an internet hub, a gateway into a totally subscriber-based, online, always-on system. A closed system offers the best possible financial return for publishers; they can eliminate huge overheads, wipe out piracy overnight and save a fortune on costs in a multitude of other ways. The player gets the benefit of access to all the very latest games for a set fee, played virtually on the very latest hardware. It's a win-win. It will happen.

Cal wrote:they can eliminate huge overheads, wipe out piracy overnight and save a fortune on costs in a multitude of other ways.

Not a chance. As long as there is a method of putting data into that machine, there will be a way to circumvent the security and run pirated copies of games on it. Look at how easy it is to jailbreak the iPhone/iPod Touch, which uses a completely download-based distribution system.

Carlos wrote:Not a chance. As long as there is a method of putting data into that machine, there will be a way to circumvent the security and run pirated copies of games on it. Look at how easy it is to jailbreak the iPhone/iPod Touch, which uses a completely download-based distribution system.

You download the software and it runs locally. This isn't the case with OnLive. All the software is run remotely, and all you ever get back is a video-stream.

I for one, will be strawberry floated if my gaming diet will exist entirely of this kind of streamed gaming. OnLive may reduce the need for hardware in the home, but not the desire.

TheTurnipKing wrote:
Carlos wrote:Not a chance. As long as there is a method of putting data into that machine, there will be a way to circumvent the security and run pirated copies of games on it. Look at how easy it is to jailbreak the iPhone/iPod Touch, which uses a completely download-based distribution system.

You download the software and it runs locally. This isn't the case with OnLive. All the software is run remotely, and all you ever get back is a video-stream.

I for one, will be strawberry floated if my gaming diet will exist entirely of this kind of streamed gaming. OnLive may reduce the need for hardware in the home, but not the desire.

Since when have I been Carlos?

And last time we talked about download-distribution, there was a suggestion of download stations at stores (so that they will continue to stock the console). There's your weak link. Also, if my internet were to get cut-off, I'd still want to play my strawberry floating games.

MCN wrote:Since when have I been Carlos?

So I deleted the wrong tag. Sue me :p

MCN wrote:And last time we talked about download-distribution, there was a suggestion of download stations at stores (so that they will continue to stock the console). There's your weak link. Also, if my internet were to get cut-off, I'd still want to play my strawberry floating games.

OnLive isn't digital distribution. It's more like remote play.

Games that rely on the Internet to play have already been proven a viable commodity. Internet is rapidly becoming just another household utility. Would you expect to be able to play your consoles if your electricity went out?

TheTurnipKing wrote:
MCN wrote:Since when have I been Carlos?

So I deleted the wrong tag. Sue me :p

MCN wrote:And last time we talked about download-distribution, there was a suggestion of download stations at stores (so that they will continue to stock the console). There's your weak link. Also, if my internet were to get cut-off, I'd still want to play my strawberry floating games.

OnLive isn't digital distribution. It's more like remote play.

Internet is rapidly becoming just another household utility. Would you expect to be able to play your consoles if your electricity went out?

I'd play my DS.

MCN wrote:
TheTurnipKing wrote:
MCN wrote:Since when have I been Carlos?

So I deleted the wrong tag. Sue me :p

MCN wrote:And last time we talked about download-distribution, there was a suggestion of download stations at stores (so that they will continue to stock the console). There's your weak link. Also, if my internet were to get cut-off, I'd still want to play my strawberry floating games.

OnLive isn't digital distribution. It's more like remote play.

Internet is rapidly becoming just another household utility. Would you expect to be able to play your consoles if your electricity went out?

I'd play my DS.

A solution that would ALSO work if your Internet went out.

TheTurnipKing wrote:A solution that would ALSO work if your Internet went out.

Not if all consoles, as is being suggested, followed the OnLive route.

Also, internet may seem like a household utility to you, but there is a reason all the computers are always taken at the volunteer centre's computer suite. Bear in mind us cutting-edge types actually constitute a very small proportion of people.

MCN wrote:
TheTurnipKing wrote:A solution that would ALSO work if your Internet went out.

Not if all consoles, as is being suggested, followed the OnLive route.

Also, internet may seem like a household utility to you, but there is a reason all the computers are always taken at the volunteer centre's computer suite. Bear in mind us cutting-edge types actually constitute a very small proportion of people.

Yet I've already said myself that there's no way in hell I'm going to let all my software be run remotely. Obviously there is room in the market for both approaches, especially when you have a platform as discrete from "consoles" as handhelds are, and especially when you have other platforms just waiting for a slip up from the dominant formats to storm in there are take a good chunk of marketshare, like mobile gaming.

But there are HUGE advantages to the OnLive model, particularly for the publishers, and all it needs is the right software to get a solid following amongst end-users. Especially if one considers that you wouldn't necessarily need a dedicated OnLive "console", but that these games could be distributed to any of the existing consoles.

Imagine suddenly being able to play Crysis on your Wii, for example. And play with friends who own PS3's and 360's. While still retaining access to your existing game library.

Now obviously, this is mostly for the future. But it's suddenly not so hard to see why publishers are champing at the bit, is it?

Carlos wrote:But the last generation ever? Cloud computing and OnLive is one thing but do you really see this taking off in the mass market? Nintendo, for example have only just introduced a whole new generation of people to gaming as a pastime and completely shifting the stardardised distribution model is going to just alienate them all, and most of us do like trade-ins which means it is doubtful we will see downloads becoming central either, at least not outside the portable realm.

The success of the Wii is that is is not competing with a PC, and offers a different experience to that of a PC.

PlayStations and XBoxs are, essentially, dedicated gaming PCs that plug into a TV, and can't play RTSs very well (I know a broad general sweeping statement that has a thousand holes in it)

Unless the raison d'etre of the Sony and MS gaming divisions change (and they appear to be) they will have to release new hardware sooner rather than later, of face a mass migration of FPS, 3PS and driving game fans to a PC.

If a closed system could be developed Nintendo would be first on the bandwagon as they would love to keep 100% of the money spent on games. Everyone under the age of 35 has no problems getting their heads round a digital distribution model a la App Store and PSN and Ive always found gamers to fairly tech-savvy in most cases but the problem becomes convincing the new market to buy into it.

Lets take your mum: Hypothetically she owns a Wii and since all her kids have left home has the time to play a bit of Wii Fit and Sports a couple of times a week and has even got her head round a graphic adventure like Broken Sword (because you introduced her to it) but is indifferent to Metroid/Zelda/Mario because the core gameplay (shooting/adventuring/old school platforming) just doesnt appeal to her.
One day your mum gets herself a new HDTV and plugs her Wii in but it looks a little murkier than usual to the point where even she is put off. This is the point Microsoft will be trying to convince her to 'upgrade' to a 360 with the Natal Bar and she has seen the adverts and it looks intriguing but she already has a few games on the Wii and certainly wouldn't entertain trading anything or buying 2 consoles so she gets the new 'Wii HD' she has seen on TV because it plays all her old Wii games and the HD part means everything looks better on her new TV. So far, so clever marketing by Nintendo.
If she wanted to buy a game and walked into HMV/Tesco/Blockbuster and they said they don't sell any games and she has to download them instead she'd be exceptionally angry.

I see Simultaneous download/retail releases being the way forward with the next gen but I really dont see OnLive or Downloads in general becoming the norm for a long while, and certainly not whilst this new market rules the roost on the most popular system around.

My main concern about digital distribution is the monopoly it creates (assuming in the future, games on disc have been phased out), if I can only buy a game from one source then there is little incentive for games to come down in price the longer they have been out or for their starting price to undercut RRP. Theoretically the games should be much cheaper as a supply chain has been eliminated, but it is that supply chain which creates the most competition in pricing. With a purely DD system we have to either like it or lump it.

Assuming a solution arises that allows competition over where you buy the game from digitally (I suppose the closest analogy would be with ISPs, BT own the phone lines, but other ISPs can use them, and are free to charge the price they want) then I'd totally support disc-free gaming, faster loading times, no disc changes, quieter consoles, permanent games etc. The benefits are huge, I just hope that the monopoly fear doesn't become the reality.

Is anyone seriously suggesting that next gen consoles will not have disc drives? Internet speeds are not globally fast enough to offer a reliable universal distribution system. We'll have to discs for a while yet, even if the same games are released online simultaniously. Basically you will have a choice whether to buy the physical copy or just download it. That state of affairs will probably continue until the number of hard copies sold dwindles so low that it becomes uneconomical to continue manufacturing them.

Extralife wrote:Is anyone seriously suggesting that next gen consoles will not have disc drives? Internet speeds are not globally fast enough to offer a reliable universal distribution system.

Strange, because the entire PC market is largely digital distribution based these days.

Consoles: The Last Generation (?)

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