Coronavirus & stuff

A household of 4 infecting each other would just be R1 wouldn’t it

Moggy wrote:It's almost certainly bullshit.

We've seen just how quickly Covid19 spreads, but we are supposed to believe it was in Europe in September but nobody noticed until January?

The paper seems pretty legit actually https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0300891620974755 though obviously it's always possible they made a mistake. It'll undoubtedly spark further investigations into blood samples from that time period, so we'll get confirmation soon.

I don't know much about that sort of thing but I wouldn't be surprised if it were true. Surely it must take a while for a new disease to be properly diagnosed? I can imagine people suffering with it and assuming it was a standard cold or flu or whatever. It clearly got totally out of control in Wuhan, at which point it became obvious there was something else going on.

In fact, if it's true it could be a real cause for concern, as it could mean that although it was circulating in September, October and November, it didn't massively kick off until December...

Karl_ wrote:

Moggy wrote:It's almost certainly bullshit.

We've seen just how quickly Covid19 spreads, but we are supposed to believe it was in Europe in September but nobody noticed until January?

The paper seems pretty legit actually https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0300891620974755 though obviously it's always possible they made a mistake. It'll undoubtedly spark further investigations into blood samples from that time period, so we'll get confirmation soon.

Pfft I'm not reading all that.

I assumed it was another "China virus! Look at the car parks!" load of bollocks.

Grumpy David wrote:Coronavirus was circulating in Italy as early as September 2019, scientists there have claimed.

Patients in a cancer trial were found to have developed coronavirus antibodies months before the first official case in China.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-circulating-in-italy-as-early-as-september-2019-scientists-claim-12133825

This actually ties in to the Satellite data from Chinese hospitals showing car parks were unusually busy last summer too. The general timeline has been November 2019 for the start date but this would suggest it's been circulating for many months prior to this.

Does this mean we have to call it the Italy virus?

Moggy wrote:

Karl_ wrote:

Moggy wrote:It's almost certainly bullshit.

We've seen just how quickly Covid19 spreads, but we are supposed to believe it was in Europe in September but nobody noticed until January?

The paper seems pretty legit actually https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0300891620974755 though obviously it's always possible they made a mistake. It'll undoubtedly spark further investigations into blood samples from that time period, so we'll get confirmation soon.

Pfft I'm not reading all that.

I assumed it was another "China virus! Look at the car parks!" load of bollocks.

Yeah I get it. "China knew!!! They released it on purpose!!! To kill all the whites!!!" is conspiracy theory nonsense, obviously. What might have happened is that there were small outbreaks in various places before anyone knew there was a new virus causing it, that we can find historical evidence for.

Karl_ wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Karl_ wrote:

Moggy wrote:It's almost certainly bullshit.

We've seen just how quickly Covid19 spreads, but we are supposed to believe it was in Europe in September but nobody noticed until January?

The paper seems pretty legit actually https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0300891620974755 though obviously it's always possible they made a mistake. It'll undoubtedly spark further investigations into blood samples from that time period, so we'll get confirmation soon.

Pfft I'm not reading all that.

I assumed it was another "China virus! Look at the car parks!" load of bollocks.

Yeah I get it. "China knew!!! They released it on purpose!!! To kill all the whites!!!" is conspiracy theory nonsense, obviously. What might have happened is that there were small outbreaks in various places before anyone knew there was a new virus causing it, that we can find historical evidence for.

How would the small outbreaks fizzle out though? Was it just luck that people didnt pass it on to enough people for it to spread more dramatically?

If it was present in the UK during that period then it didn't have a really noticeable impact on death figures (2017 Sep - Dec 174,401 2018 Sep - Dec 167,094 2019 Sep - Dec 178,928)

Tomous wrote:How would the small outbreaks fizzle out thouhhh? Was it just luck that people didnt pass it on to enough people for it to spread more dramatically?

I can't really speculate to be honest, that's out of my field, but I hope if the finding is confirmed then further research will also answer that.

Tomous wrote:

Karl_ wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Karl_ wrote:

Moggy wrote:It's almost certainly bullshit.

We've seen just how quickly Covid19 spreads, but we are supposed to believe it was in Europe in September but nobody noticed until January?

The paper seems pretty legit actually https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0300891620974755 though obviously it's always possible they made a mistake. It'll undoubtedly spark further investigations into blood samples from that time period, so we'll get confirmation soon.

Pfft I'm not reading all that.

I assumed it was another "China virus! Look at the car parks!" load of bollocks.

Yeah I get it. "China knew!!! They released it on purpose!!! To kill all the whites!!!" is conspiracy theory nonsense, obviously. What might have happened is that there were small outbreaks in various places before anyone knew there was a new virus causing it, that we can find historical evidence for.

How would the small outbreaks fizzle out thouhhh? Was it just luck that people didnt pass it on to enough people for it to spread more dramatically?

That'd be my question. We've seen how quickly this virus spreads, why was it so quiet from September until January/February/March?

Moggy wrote:

Tomous wrote:

Karl_ wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Karl_ wrote:

Moggy wrote:It's almost certainly bullshit.

We've seen just how quickly Covid19 spreads, but we are supposed to believe it was in Europe in September but nobody noticed until January?

The paper seems pretty legit actually https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0300891620974755 though obviously it's always possible they made a mistake. It'll undoubtedly spark further investigations into blood samples from that time period, so we'll get confirmation soon.

Pfft I'm not reading all that.

I assumed it was another "China virus! Look at the car parks!" load of bollocks.

Yeah I get it. "China knew!!! They released it on purpose!!! To kill all the whites!!!" is conspiracy theory nonsense, obviously. What might have happened is that there were small outbreaks in various places before anyone knew there was a new virus causing it, that we can find historical evidence for.

How would the small outbreaks fizzle out thouhhh? Was it just luck that people didnt pass it on to enough people for it to spread more dramatically?

That'd be my question. We've seen how quickly this virus spreads, why was it so quiet from September until January/February/March?

It could have been a weaker strain that has since evolved. Also we don't know the true % of people who have had it with symptoms. When the universities went back after summer there was something like 770 confirmed tested cases at one and only 70 of those had symptoms. That's quite a low rate of visibly identifiable cases.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54974373

Go-between paid £21m in taxpayer funds for NHS PPE

A Spanish businessman who acted as a go-between to secure protective garments for NHS staff in the coronavirus pandemic, was paid $28m (£21m) in UK taxpayer cash.

The consultant had been in line for a further $20m of UK public funds, documents filed in a US court reveal.

The legal papers also reveal the American supplier of the PPE called the deals "lucrative".

The Department for Health was asked for comment but did not respond in time.

A legal dispute playing out in the courts in Miami has helped shine a light on the amount of money some companies have made supplying the NHS with equipment to protect staff from Covid infection

Anyone who says the government doesn't have money to feed hungry children should read that. A government needs a business man to broker a deal for PPE? Was there standing as a government not enough?

I wonder how far along the trail you have to go before it turns out another group of Tory MPs and/or their donors received part of that £21m.

This has got Dom's sweaty paw prints all over it. Why were they pushing massive amounts of cash down non-traditional PPE sourcing routes whilst ignoring established UK based suppliers? It almost comes across as reckless for the sake of it. And that's even discounting the Tory donors who hoovered up massive amounts of public money for doing grand amounts of strawberry float all. In 3-5 years time I want to be able to look back and see various people have been charged and imprisoned over this, it's a strawberry floating scandal.

Glasgow and the surrounding area to go into tier four restrictions from Friday for three weeks - essentially lockdown here.

Delay in the number of deaths again.

Squinty wrote:Delay in the number of deaths again.

Maybe the person reporting the deaths died of the 'Rona?

Mnight.jpg

Daily numbers

Positive

20,051

Deaths

598

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2. ... 1595857823

Over 600,000 signed the petition "Prevent gyms closing due to a spike in Covid 19 cases" so they now have to debate it on the 23rd November.

twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1328936943896420354

The General Secretary of the Free Speech Union showing off his maths skills.