Grumpy David wrote:I don't think that article takes into account Novavax coming online. I think Johnson & Johnson isn't likely to arrive till June so may be the 5th vaccine with Novavax the 4th.
Novavax may get approved as soon as this month. It has efficacy levels similar to BioNtech and Moderna but the cold chain distribution is a standard fridge temperature rather than minus 70c or minus 20c so it's far less of a logistical headache.
Novavax is meant to have vastly more supply (and it's a domestic supply chain with the final process of fill and finish here too and no row with the EU is possible since the EU hasn't even signed a contract for Novavax yet) than the initial 500k Modena is sending to UK in 2 weeks so actually has the potential to really ramp up the 1st doses so as young & healthy people aren't waiting to the end of summer.
Similar to the 1st doses first policy which no one argues against anymore, I've seen the idea of Moderna being half dosed as it's basically the same as the BioNtech vaccine which is a less concentrated dose and still delivers amazing results. Would ensure twice as many people can get a 1st dose sooner than later.
And by June, the USA will probably be exporting vaccines in huge numbers since their roll out has been so successful. They're expecting all adults to be able to get their 1st dose later this month and probably won't even need any of the Oxford vaccine if they ever get round to approving it.
I’m hopeful the other vaccines will increase our supply and see us through. Hopefully I’m just being a bit pessimistic.
In other news an old friend of mine has just gone full anti-vac on Facebook posting a number of conspiracies whilst insisting that he’s not anti vaccines but ‘these links make you think’