Earth 2050?

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **SEP** » Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:49 am

Peter Crisp wrote:Yes, this does mean a huge change to farming and a quite devastating loss of jobs but some of that will be taken back up by maintaining the equipment.

Those are very different sets of skills. What makes you think the people who are currently farmers would be up to maintaining advanced lab equipment?

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **Meep** » Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:02 am

I expect by 2050 population growth and continued degradation of natural systems will have led to much more intensive competition for resources and lead to a growing number of conflicts across the world. The insecurity that results from this will have led to more and more authoritarian and hardline government, following the trend we are seeing today, and many democracies will cease to be so (they will still follow the motions of democracy but media will be completely controlled by single parties and dissent will be heavily policed by more punitive laws follow the Russian model).

Things will eventually get better after they get worse. When progressive societies and institutions begin to recover/re-emerge they will be doing so with a superior knowledge base and technology and will have much great options for rebuilding a global civilisation along more sustainable lines.

Okay, so a little pessimistic, but it's not totally awful. I still think humanity will ultimately survive and thrive because frankly we are a lot more robust than some people claim. It's just that, sadly, the inaction of the last couple of decades has made it clear to me that it will take a massive shock before we learn to live in a truly sustainable fashion.

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **Peter Crisp** » Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:23 pm

Thinking about this a bit while swimming today I think we may see the first signs of true AI by 2050.
It'll need to be heavily controlled and in a university lab with zero access to the internet but I think it could happen with the advances in computer hardware and people being interested in the subject.
Fusion power reactors will finally be starting to be built with ITER in France being a success and showing how to go from a large test reactor to a proper working unit that can be replicated at a price that isn't completely crippling.

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **Peter Crisp** » Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:40 pm

Somebody Else's Presents wrote:
Peter Crisp wrote:Yes, this does mean a huge change to farming and a quite devastating loss of jobs but some of that will be taken back up by maintaining the equipment.

Those are very different sets of skills. What makes you think the people who are currently farmers would be up to maintaining advanced lab equipment?

A lot of them won't but but I think you'll be surprised how many can adapt as they already use quite a lot of machinery on farms now.

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **OrangeRKN** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:00 am

Peter Crisp wrote:Fusion power reactors will finally be starting to be built

Fusion is only 10 years away!

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **BID0** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:48 am

Probably massive crop failures and starvation by 2050

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **Lex-Man** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:09 am

OrangeXMS wrote:
Peter Crisp wrote:Fusion power reactors will finally be starting to be built

Fusion is only 10 years away!

Haven't they only been 10 years away since the 70s.

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **OrangeRKN** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:12 am

Lex-Man wrote:
OrangeXMS wrote:
Peter Crisp wrote:Fusion power reactors will finally be starting to be built

Fusion is only 10 years away!

Haven't they only been 10 years away since the 70s.

Yep

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **Jenuall** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:18 am

Fusion will always be 10 years away just like next year will always be the year of "Linux on the desktop"

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **OrangeRKN** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:26 am

Half-Life 3 is actually a working fusion reactor

It makes sense when you think about it

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **Peter Crisp** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:27 am

I think ITER will make some decent progress but it will be slow and expensive.
I think just the sheer necessity of replacing fossil fuels will help the funding and thus the innovation.

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **Meep** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:29 pm

Meh, I wouldn't worry about energy supply long term. I expect nanotech will eventually yield photovoltaic power that delivers similar efficiency to photosynthesis, making use of quantum tunnelling and other tricks. If biological systems can achieve that sort of efficiency than technological ones should be able to as well. This will make electricity so cheap as to be practically free and make anyone investing in fusion, even if it works, look like an idiot.

I'd be more worried about the the emissions we will emit in the next twenty years and the effect that will have over the next century to the climate and weather systems. A population of nine billion or so we be stranded on a planet that won't even be able to feed the amount it does now.

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **pjbetman** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:40 pm

Peter Crisp wrote:I'm not so optimistic about the prospects in space as some.
I think Elon Musk's idea for Mars will be constantly pushed back but we may have a small base on the moon with maybe enough room for 5 people at once. Space tourism may become a thing with space hotels being put in orbit but only a few and it'll still be the preserve of the ultra rich.

From what i'm being told, there WILL be a break-away civilization before we destroy Earth (by nuclear war or climate problems). Heading to Mars.

PostRe: Earth 2050? by **OrangeRKN** » Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:02 pm

Any Mars colony will be dependent on Earth for centuries. Running away isn't an option, as much as the mega rich would like to believe.

Earth 2050?

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