General Election 2019: Exit Poll and Results

Helpful advice for polling day:

• Polling stations open at 7am and close at 10pm. If you're in the queue by 10pm, you can vote.
  
  
• If you have an unforeseeable emergency, you have until 5pm to nominate a proxy to vote on your behalf.
  
  
• If you have lost your poll card and are unsure where to go and vote, you can check Where Do I Vote.
  
  
• You do not need ID or a poll card to vote.
  
  
• You can hand in a postal vote at your polling station.

About the above survey

Since tactical voting is so important this time around, I decided to include a short survey along with the "exit poll". Feel free to not answer any questions you aren't comfortable with. PhpBB is not a particularly sophisticated piece of software for polling, so I'm sorry that it's a bit clunky, but we'll muddle through!

This is a "just for fun" poll taken on an explicitly non-representative sample, not a true exit poll. Nonetheless, in the spirit of the electoral law - not allowing exit data to influence ongoing votes - I have taken reasonable precautions that the data not be visible to the public. Some users who have chosen a non-standard forum theme might be able to see the results early, but I ask them to keep it to themself, and not post spoilers or ruin the surprise.

I remark that I, some idiot on an Internet forum, respect electoral law more than the politics editor of the BBC.

If you want to stop the Tories and are unsure how to vote to do so, the best tactical voting website is https://tactical.vote/. Pop in your postcode and it'll tell you the most effective anti-Tory vote.

If you want to check your candidates' voting records, you can use https://www.theyworkforyou.com/. You can also use the site to compare e.g. Boris Johnson vs. Jeremy Corbyn.

If you don't know what parties align best with issues important to you, you should take the survey at https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/ to find out which party is closest to you.

Less relevant to the election, but I think it's important everyone knows what their own political views are. If you want to know more about what your political ideology is, you can take a short test at the Political Compass (which rates you on two axes, socialism-capitalism and libertarianism-authoritarianism); or a slightly longer test at Political Sextant (which will attempt to label you with a matching ideology and suggest some books to read to learn more).

Here's how the Political Compass rates the main parties (and if you take the test, it can place you on the same chart):



The Political Compass maps out the main parties in the election.

If - like over 80% of GRcade members - you want to get rid of the Tories, you might have been discouraged by the opinion polling in this campaign. I would make two points:

1. Opinion polls mid-campaign - the brutal ones you might have seen with a 20-point Tory lead or whatever - are never correct. Even opinion polls right at the end of a campaign are rarely correct, and have large margins of error.
   
   A big part of my work-life is data science and it's my opinion that there are methodological flaws with how these surveys are carried out, and furthermore that elections might simply be too complex to reliably model.
   
   
2. Even though I advise not paying too much attention to polls, I want to point out something interesting that could indicate a possible upset.
   
   In 2017, the final ICM poll predicted Tory 46%, Labour 34% (Tory +12%); similarly, the final ComRes poll predicted Tory 44%, Labour 34% (Tory +10%); and BMG predicted Tory 46%, Labour 33% (Tory +13%). The actual 2017 result was Tory 44%, Labour 41% (Tory +3%).
   
   This time around, in 2019, ICM are saying Tory 42%, Labour 36% (Tory +6%); and ComRes are saying Tory 41%, Labour 36% (Tory +5%); and BMG are saying Tory 41%, Labour 32% (Tory +9%). That's three pollsters having it tighter than last time. If they're wrong in the same direction, the Tories and Labour could be neck-and-neck on vote share when the results come in.

Maybe the polls are actually right this time and Labour are really down several points. It's certainly possible. But maybe they're wrong, or maybe they don't factor in that a strong turnout on the day could make a big difference. So please, go and vote tactically against the Tories (which means Labour in the majority of seats in England, but check your constituency and vote accordingly).

If you don't believe me, take it from the horse's mouth:

twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1204868707132026881

ComRes say the election is "too close to call."

Don't let any "hint" as to what the results "are looking like" discourage you. You have the hard-won right to vote. Use it no matter what.

.

Karl

My area is a Tory stronghold..
This is last GE result:



Year before was about the same, but around 9000 labour votes.
Not even Tactical voting can change it here I don't think.

That would be quite the hill to climb. I would say in that seat you can vote for whoever you like.

I'm in a safe seat myself. I usually vote Green, but this election I'm voting Labour. I like their manifesto more-or-less the same as the Green one, and I want to stick up for them after how appallingly they've been treated by the media.

Are we saying who we voted for and where?

I'm doing a proxy vote, trusting my father to not lurch to the right and just give two votes to the Brexit Party.

My seat is Stockton South, which was arse-clenchingly tight last time (a margin of around 800 votes, I think) and is on course to be so this time.

Though I have lived abroad for the entirety of the period he has been in office, the local MP seems to be, at the very least, engaged in local issues and regularly visible in the area.

Unlike the last guy:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -the-north

Unfortunately, the constiuency is a bit of a weird one, split between a few affluent areas and a few poorer ones. These are both remain and leave areas respectively, which murkies the water between Labour and the Tories further. I fear that the poorer areas who seem to have voted strongly for Leave are the types that wan to Get Brexit Done and will vote nationally rather than locally, robbing the area of a proactive, engaged local MP for the issue of Brexit, which is unlikely to affect their day-to-day lives in the same beneficial way.

Stay safe GRcade

I've just noticed that the labour polling station finder tells me that our nearest polling station is a social Ciub near by.

It's historically always been the same club.
The club was demolished earlier this year though.

The polling station is a church this year, but nobody seems to have told labour.

The https://wheredoivote.co.uk/ website gives the correct location.

Updated the OP with that link Lewis, thanks - sounds like a better alternative!

Plan to vote Alliance. IF I get back at a reasonable time tonight (Christmas Dinner).

I can laugh at the DUP getting strawberry floated under a bus, but it really does show you how little they actually give a gooseberry fool about NI. So honestly if I miss the chance to vote, I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.

Edit - Thanks for the amount of work put into this topic as well. I meant to say, that'll help people tremendously.

Will head out and vote around lunchtime, there's only 4 candidates in my constituency too (Tory, Labour, Lib, Green).

I voted on my way to work. I ticked the box for the Conservatives and also the one for the Brexit Party just to be sure that we get Brexit done.

I'm in a very safe Tory seat but I'm voting labour in the hopes other people see sense. Only issue I live in one of the most Jewish areas in Britain as some of the best religious Jewish schools are around here so I'm not holding up hope.

They're more scared of anti semitism than they are that poor people from all creeds will be completely strawberry floated over by the Tories so strawberry float it.

Partridge Iciclebubbles wrote:I voted on my way to work. I ticked the box for the Conservatives and also the one for the Brexit Party just to be sure that we get Brexit done.

YOU TRAITOR

Partridge Iciclebubbles wrote:I voted on my way to work. I ticked the box for the Conservatives and also the one for the Brexit Party just to be sure that we get Brexit done.

We all know you voted for Jacob Rees Moggy (whoever designed your sig missed a trick there), his name alone makes you feel all warm and fuzzy.

Qikzmas wrote:I'm in a very safe Tory seat but I'm voting labour in the hopes other people see sense. Only issue I live in one of the most Jewish areas in Britain as some of the best religious Jewish schools are around here so I'm not holding up hope.

They're more scared of anti semitism than they are that poor people from all creeds will be completely strawberry floated over by the Tories so strawberry float it.

With the history that Jewish people have, I am not surprised they are scared of anti-semitism...

But there is far far far more racism (including anti-semitism) in the Tory party so voting Tory as a protest against racism is like voting Green because you want more fossil fuel power stations.

Vermi Claus wrote:

Partridge Iciclebubbles wrote:I voted on my way to work. I ticked the box for the Conservatives and also the one for the Brexit Party just to be sure that we get Brexit done.

We all know you voted for Jacob Rees Moggy (whoever designed your sig missed a trick there), his name alone makes you feel all warm and fuzzy.

YOU TAKE THAT BACK! I DON'T LIVE IN strawberry floating NORTH EAST SOMERSET YOU BASTARD.

Partridge Iciclebubbles wrote:

Qikzmas wrote:I'm in a very safe Tory seat but I'm voting labour in the hopes other people see sense. Only issue I live in one of the most Jewish areas in Britain as some of the best religious Jewish schools are around here so I'm not holding up hope.

They're more scared of anti semitism than they are that poor people from all creeds will be completely strawberry floated over by the Tories so strawberry float it.

With the history that Jewish people have, I am not surprised they are scared of anti-semitism...

But there is far far far more racism (including anti-semitism) in the Tory party so voting Tory as a protest against racism is like voting Green because you want more fossil fuel power stations.

This is my issue, there's anti semitism in the Tory party, but noy only that they're also incredibly racist to everyone else as well. I personally feel it's disgusting that people would vote in the Tory party for that reason. I don't know if the media got to a lot of them but I always hear the same arguments - "we couldn't possibly vote labour because of antisemitism". Yet they'll vote to strawberry float over literally everyone else and theirselves. Such compassion.