PsychicSykes wrote:Rhubarb wrote:So the first match in the accy you lay enough to cover your entire accy stake. If that lay bet loses your next lay is for stake and liability from previous lay etc etc? Does that actually leave you much profit in the eventuality your accy wins? Given bet365 and exchange prices will likely be different, it might be worth doing a dry run and seeing what the prices in play for laying each leg etc are.
Won't make that much difference probably, but remember to factor in commission on winning lays too.
Yeah, my first thought was along the lines of it not leaving much profit too. I can see it being a bother covering multiple games going on at the same time too.
Exactly, Rhubarb. I've taken commission into account, Smarkets is only 2% anyway. You go for events with back and lay odds that are closely matched - the back odds for Sevilla against Leicester were (IIRC) 1.36 with lay odds of about 1.4.
It's the bonus that B365 offer that makes this worthwhile, without it you'd probably break even minus the exchange commission. I've done a hypothetical 8-fold with total odds of 5.4 and no single pick with odds greater than 1.32. £100 stake and you'd need approximately £390 to cover the required liability. Profit would be approximately £250 if the accumulator comes in and if it doesn't, you haven't lost anything.
Obviously, 8-fold accas aren't gonna come in every week, even with picks that have individually low odds. Thinking it about it though, you'd only need seven to come in because you could adjust your final lay bet to guarantee the profit. And you don't have to do an 8-fold, you could do a 4-fold and accept the lower bonus % but do several at a time with a higher chance you'll hit a win.
And PS, you'd want to have games that are on at different times to allow you to lay the bets off properly. I'm gonna do a low stakes test but I'm confident I've got it worked out. If it does, I'll report back.