Is the next financial crisis upon us?

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Grumpy David
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PostRe: Is the next financial crisis upon us?
by Grumpy David » Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:47 am

Green Gecko wrote:Can that valuation by tracked on a graph that spans, for example, a period of years rather than literally the last couple of hours?


I wouldn't have thought so because it was the futures contract for May 2020 expiring today. I'm not sure how far in advance investors buy monthly futures but I'd have assumed it would be measured in months rather than years.

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PostRe: Is the next financial crisis upon us?
by Green Gecko » Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:10 am

Ok, I just tend to get tired of seeing financial reporting that talks about a dip in whatever commodity but doesn't place that in context of any similar dips in a period relevant to anybody but the traders.

Problem seems to be transporting the oil rather than selling it, which is interesting.

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Grumpy David
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PostRe: Is the next financial crisis upon us?
by Grumpy David » Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:29 am

Grumpy David wrote:
Rocsteady wrote:How are those 25% returns now?

I'm actually in the negative after mentioning gains in here previously, I really hope no one invested at that point!


Minus 20%. :lol:


27 days since the market crash that saw me go from plus 25% to minus 20% and I'm now back up to plus 1.2% despite recent contributions being made at all time market highs.

If ever there was an example of the stock market not reflecting the actual economy then that's it. All the government money pumped into buying sovereign debt probably forcing institutional investors to purchase equities to potentially get above inflation returns.

The majority of my shares track the USA stock market of which tech companies and health companies comprise 40% of the index which probably explains a large part of the gains too. I do think it's worrying that the FAANGs already dominant positions get entrenched from this. Particularly Amazon, its easy to imagine the USA high street essentially being dominated by Amazon, Wal Mart and CostCo after this.

Last edited by Grumpy David on Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Rocsteady
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PostRe: Is the next financial crisis upon us?
by Rocsteady » Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:11 am

Grumpy David wrote:
Grumpy David wrote:
Rocsteady wrote:How are those 25% returns now?

I'm actually in the negative after mentioning gains in here previously, I really hope no one invested at that point!


Minus 20%. :lol:


27 days since the market crash that saw me go from plus 25% to minus 20% and I'm now back up to plus 1.2% despite recent contributions being made at all time market highs.

If ever there was an example of the stock market not reflecting the actual economy then that's it. All the government money pumped into buying sovereign debt probably forcing institutional investors to purchase equities to potentially get above inflation returns.

The majority of my shares track the USA stock market which of which tech companies and health companies comprise 40% of the index which probably explains a large part of the gains too. I do think it's worrying that the FAANGs already dominant positions get entrenched from this. Particularly Amazon, its easy to imagine the USA high street essentially being dominated by Amazon, Wal Mart and CostCo after this.

I'm up about 0.6 again too. It's ridiculous.

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Grumpy David
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PostRe: Is the next financial crisis upon us?
by Grumpy David » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:20 pm

Grumpy David wrote:
Grumpy David wrote:
Rocsteady wrote:How are those 25% returns now?

I'm actually in the negative after mentioning gains in here previously, I really hope no one invested at that point!


Minus 20%. :lol:


27 days since the market crash that saw me go from plus 25% to minus 20% and I'm now back up to plus 1.2% despite recent contributions being made at all time market highs.

If ever there was an example of the stock market not reflecting the actual economy then that's it. All the government money pumped into buying sovereign debt probably forcing institutional investors to purchase equities to potentially get above inflation returns.

The majority of my shares track the USA stock market of which tech companies and health companies comprise 40% of the index which probably explains a large part of the gains too. I do think it's worrying that the FAANGs already dominant positions get entrenched from this. Particularly Amazon, its easy to imagine the USA high street essentially being dominated by Amazon, Wal Mart and CostCo after this.


Drumstick wrote:
Grumpy David wrote:...

Kind of off topic but have you seen any uptick in your investment trackers yet?


I've continued my monthly investing (only equities, no bonds) and I'm now showing as plus 21.57% which is frankly ridiculous!

Who knows what the future brings but the only way this makes sense to me is that the collective wisdom of the market believes governments will spend whatever it takes to fix this and that one of the vaccines will be ready to roll out by the end of the year.

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Rocsteady
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PostRe: Is the next financial crisis upon us?
by Rocsteady » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:26 pm

Grumpy David wrote:
Grumpy David wrote:
Grumpy David wrote:
Rocsteady wrote:How are those 25% returns now?

I'm actually in the negative after mentioning gains in here previously, I really hope no one invested at that point!


Minus 20%. :lol:


27 days since the market crash that saw me go from plus 25% to minus 20% and I'm now back up to plus 1.2% despite recent contributions being made at all time market highs.

If ever there was an example of the stock market not reflecting the actual economy then that's it. All the government money pumped into buying sovereign debt probably forcing institutional investors to purchase equities to potentially get above inflation returns.

The majority of my shares track the USA stock market of which tech companies and health companies comprise 40% of the index which probably explains a large part of the gains too. I do think it's worrying that the FAANGs already dominant positions get entrenched from this. Particularly Amazon, its easy to imagine the USA high street essentially being dominated by Amazon, Wal Mart and CostCo after this.


Drumstick wrote:
Grumpy David wrote:...

Kind of off topic but have you seen any uptick in your investment trackers yet?


I've continued my monthly investing (only equities, no bonds) and I'm now showing as plus 21.57% which is frankly ridiculous!

Who knows what the future brings but the only way this makes sense to me is that the collective wisdom of the market believes governments will spend whatever it takes to fix this and that one of the vaccines will be ready to roll out by the end of the year.

After April 1 I pussied out and stopped putting any additional money in. I'm still anticipating a crash in the stock market next year, feel safer hoarding some cash now. Haven't pulled any out though.

Edit: just checked and I'm slightly >8% personal returns for now.

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Grumpy David
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PostRe: Is the next financial crisis upon us?
by Grumpy David » Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:14 pm

Rocsteady wrote:After April 1 I pussied out and stopped putting any additional money in. I'm still anticipating a crash in the stock market next year, feel safer hoarding some cash now. Haven't pulled any out though.

Edit: just checked and I'm slightly >8% personal returns for now.


Yeah I think there will be another crash too unless we get seriously good news on the vaccine much sooner than expected which something like the below would be:

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/26293/20200701/oxford-expert-claims-covid-19-vaccine-gives-long-term-immunity.htm

I only put £300 a month in but I've moved the vast majority of cash savings into Premium Bonds as the interest rate on my Santander 123 account got ruined.

I can take the equity risk in that situation since I'm roughly 25% equity and 75% premium bonds. Actually won £25 in the June draw and £50 in the July draw. Maybe next month I'll get the million quid prize!


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