Israel-Gaza Conflict

Grumpy David wrote:

Knoyleo wrote:Israel claim to have killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in strikes overnight. If there was ever a time Hezbollah were going to significantly escalate in retaliation, it's probably going to be now.

Is that even likely? Who gives the order? The command structure has been wiped out:

I'm sure the remaining members of the radical militant group Hezbollah will now just pack up their arms and go home.

Knoyleo wrote:

Grumpy David wrote:

Knoyleo wrote:Israel claim to have killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in strikes overnight. If there was ever a time Hezbollah were going to significantly escalate in retaliation, it's probably going to be now.

Is that even likely? Who gives the order? The command structure has been wiped out:

I'm sure the remaining members of the radical terrorist group Hezbollah will now just pack up their arms and go home.

What terrorists want to do vs what is operationally possible are two different things.

Grumpy David wrote:

Knoyleo wrote:

Grumpy David wrote:

Knoyleo wrote:Israel claim to have killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in strikes overnight. If there was ever a time Hezbollah were going to significantly escalate in retaliation, it's probably going to be now.

Is that even likely? Who gives the order? The command structure has been wiped out:

I'm sure the remaining members of the radical terrorist group Hezbollah will now just pack up their arms and go home.

What terrorists want to do vs what is operationally possible are two different things.

They still have the same arsenal of missiles and the same backing from Iran that presumably also comes with some kind of tactical and command contribution. Maybe a response won't be as coordinated as it would have been otherwise, but they still have the capacity to massively lash out in response, and now less incentive to exercise restraint, which is likely exactly what Israel wants in order to justify a brutal ground invasion.

Knoyleo wrote:

Grumpy David wrote:

Knoyleo wrote:

Grumpy David wrote:

Knoyleo wrote:Israel claim to have killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in strikes overnight. If there was ever a time Hezbollah were going to significantly escalate in retaliation, it's probably going to be now.

Is that even likely? Who gives the order? The command structure has been wiped out:

I'm sure the remaining members of the radical terrorist group Hezbollah will now just pack up their arms and go home.

What terrorists want to do vs what is operationally possible are two different things.

They still have the same arsenal of missiles and the same backing from Iran that presumably also comes with some kind of tactical and command contribution. Maybe a response won't be as coordinated as it would have been otherwise, but they still have the capacity to massively lash out in response, and now less incentive to exercise restraint, which is likely exactly what Israel wants in order to justify a brutal ground invasion.

It's not just the head of the beast that has been cut off.

Hezbollah's weapon stores, resources, planning and communication networks have been taken out too. And of course thousands of high ranking front line terrorists remain in hospital or are dead. Decades of preparation gone in two weeks.

I'm sure they'll want and probably will attempt to retaliate in some way but the ability to "significantly escalate" given the situation they're in seems doubtful.

Grumpy David wrote:

Knoyleo wrote:

Grumpy David wrote:

Knoyleo wrote:

Grumpy David wrote:

Knoyleo wrote:Israel claim to have killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in strikes overnight. If there was ever a time Hezbollah were going to significantly escalate in retaliation, it's probably going to be now.

Is that even likely? Who gives the order? The command structure has been wiped out:

I'm sure the remaining members of the radical terrorist group Hezbollah will now just pack up their arms and go home.

What terrorists want to do vs what is operationally possible are two different things.

They still have the same arsenal of missiles and the same backing from Iran that presumably also comes with some kind of tactical and command contribution. Maybe a response won't be as coordinated as it would have been otherwise, but they still have the capacity to massively lash out in response, and now less incentive to exercise restraint, which is likely exactly what Israel wants in order to justify a brutal ground invasion.

It's not just the head of the beast that has been cut off.

Hezbollah's weapon stores, resources, planning and communication networks have been taken out too. And of course thousands of high ranking front line terrorists remain in hospital or are dead. Decades of preparation gone in two weeks.

I'm sure they'll want and probably will attempt to retaliate in some way but the ability to "significantly escalate" given the situation they're in seems doubtful.

The last I heard about any of this was Jeremy Bowen on the radio this morning talking about Hezbollah still having a huge arsenal of missiles, so that's what I was assuming is still the case.

Whatever the truth, Israel under Netanyahu won't stop. You really wonder what it will take for the US to drop their support, given it's remained steadfast despite the absurdly disproportional casualties that Palestine and now Lebanon have had to endure.

Drumstick wrote:Whatever the truth, Israel under Netanyahu won't stop. You really wonder what it will take for the US to drop their support, given it's remained steadfast despite the absurdly disproportional casualties that Palestine and now Lebanon have had to endure.

I'm pretty sure that if Israel bombed a US city, the two parties would still support them.

Israel is a strawberry floating disgrace.

I've always tried to keep a balanced view, but anyone defending Israel's actions over the last few months are party to genocide.

Disgusting.

Albert wrote:Israel is a strawberry floating disgrace.

I've always tried to keep a balanced view, but anyone defending Israel's actions over the last few months are party to genocide.

Disgusting.

It makes it worse that it is the action of a democracy. It’s hard to blame civilians in authoritarian countries like Russia or Iran - people live in fear of their government and non compliance is punished. The people of Israel are complicit in authorising these actions, they elected these monsters. If they wanted them gone they could do so.

jimbojango wrote:

Albert wrote:Israel is a strawberry floating disgrace.

I've always tried to keep a balanced view, but anyone defending Israel's actions over the last few months are party to genocide.

Disgusting.

It makes it worse that it is the action of a democracy. It’s hard to blame civilians in authoritarian countries like Russia or Iran - people live in fear of their government and non compliance is punished. The people of Israel are complicit in authorising these actions, they elected these monsters. If they wanted them gone they could do so.

23% voted for Netanyahu, all together their coalition government adds up to 53%. The last election was before the latest genocide against Palestinians.

I don't blame the population of Israel as a whole for this.

Drumstick wrote:You really wonder what it will take for the US to drop their support, given it's remained steadfast despite the absurdly disproportional casualties that Palestine and now Lebanon have had to endure.

I did think Harris might be less supportive than Biden but her statement yesterday makes me think there won't be any changes:

Statement by Vice President Harris on the Death of Hassan Nasrallah

Hassan Nasrallah was a terrorist with American blood on his hands.

Across decades, his leadership of Hezbollah destabilized the Middle East and led to the killing of countless innocent people in Lebanon, Israel, Syria, and around the world.

Today, Hezbollah’s victims have a measure of justice.

I have an unwavering commitment to the security of Israel. I will always support Israel’s right to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

President Biden and I do not want to see conflict in the Middle East escalate into a broader regional war. We have been working on a diplomatic solution along the Israel-Lebanon border so that people can safely return home on both sides of that border. Diplomacy remains the best path forward to protect civilians and achieve lasting stability in the region.

I really don't understand America's support of what is going on over there at the moment.

I fully understand that Israel is extremely important to America's Control/interest in the Middle East. But I don't understand why they would support Israel's absolute terroristic State behaviour over the past few months. Like, what's the end game?

USA finances Israel, and allows them to have a proxy in the Middle East, but surely at some point they need to pull back on the chain and control the situation? Even American politicians who I super respect seem to be towing the line, or not really challenging the disgrace that is going on right now.

AOC, someone who I have grown to love respect so much over recent years even seem to be hesitant to object full out.

Are the conspiracy theories true, Is the USA Machine completley controlled by the Jews?

I am 1000% not antisematic,I swear I am not, but I just don't understand why this situation is being allowed to continue.

Albert wrote:I really don't understand America's support of what is going on over there at the moment.

I fully understand that Israel is extremely important to America's Control/interest in the Middle East. But I don't understand why they would support Israel's absolute terroristic State behaviour over the past few months. Like, what's the end game?

USA finances Israel, and allows them to have a proxy in the Middle East, but surely at some point they need to pull back on the chain and control the situation? Even American politicians who I super respect seem to be towing the line, or not really challenging the disgrace that is going on right now.

AOC, someone who I have grown to love respect so much over recent years even seem to be hesitant to object full out.

Are the conspiracy theories true, Is the USA Machine completley controlled by the Jews?

I am 1000% not antisematic,I swear I am not, but I just don't understand why this situation is being allowed to continue.

Here’s my reading. Hamas, Houthis and Hamas are funded by Iran, who are friendly with the US’s enemies: Russia, China.

The Saudis, under MBS leadership, are much more pliable to the US and are creating a futuristic techno-autocracy (AI, random things like Neom). The US sees the Saudi version of them leading the Ummah as a prospect that’s less sectarian and generally easier to control.

It’s very likely that Oct 7 was Iran-directed with the long-term goal of permanently ending the Israeli Abrahamic Accord normalisation in the Muslim World from reaching Saudi (following the UAE and Bahrain), who would never agree while Gaza is being bombed.

Tldr: US wants Saudi to lead the Ummah, its enemies want Iran.

Albert wrote:I really don't understand America's support of what is going on over there at the moment.

I fully understand that Israel is extremely important to America's Control/interest in the Middle East. But I don't understand why they would support Israel's absolute terroristic State behaviour over the past few months. Like, what's the end game?

USA finances Israel, and allows them to have a proxy in the Middle East, but surely at some point they need to pull back on the chain and control the situation? Even American politicians who I super respect seem to be towing the line, or not really challenging the disgrace that is going on right now.

AOC, someone who I have grown to love respect so much over recent years even seem to be hesitant to object full out.

Are the conspiracy theories true, Is the USA Machine completley controlled by the Jews?

I am 1000% not antisematic,I swear I am not, but I just don't understand why this situation is being allowed to continue.

No, the USA is not controlled by the Jews.

There's a whole heap of reasons why the USA is so unwavering in their support of Israel. It's their main ally in the region being the very basic reason. Israel and Iran are enemies, the US wants/needs a strong opponent of Iran.

But there's other reasons that are different for different groups in the US. The racists hate Arabs/Muslims. The evangelical Christians need the Jewish temple rebuilt so Jesus returns. Weapons manufacturers love the production of guns, bombs and missiles. Centrists see it as the only stable democracy in the region. Some people think back to the Holocaust and want to support a Jewish state. Etc etc.

There is a politically powerful Jewish community in the US, but they are not a homogeneous block that control everything.

I want to believe that moggy, and always have, but strawberry float me has recent events pushed my faith to breaking point on that area. For me it’s just the absolute non position, and the fact that some highly regarded democrats seem to be fully supportive I find really disturbing.

Albert it's important to remember that the tail does not wag the dog. Israel as a state is wholly dependent on USA finance, weapons, and diplomatic cover. If Israel is doing something it's probably because the US want them to.

Yeah Moggy is bang on in what he says there, couldn’t summarise it any better myself (I tried and failed with a Russian-Jewish friend earlier this week, think she thought I was doing a lizard-conspiracy anti-semitism at one point before I clarified).

Winckle wrote:Albert it's important to remember that the tail does not wag the dog. Israel as a state is wholly dependent on USA finance, weapons, and diplomatic cover. If Israel is doing something it's probably because the US want them to.

The Biden/Harris administration definitely doesn't want Israel to start a war while Harris is trying to win an election.

Netanyahu:

1. Would rather Trump win.
2. Would be on trial if he's not prime minister. Endless war keeps him in power.

If America were to stop arming Israel, Netanyahu does not stop making wars. He sources arms from elsewhere, likely China who would be happy to get those arms sales and get access to Israel's Middle East intelligence network.

Thank you for all the above responses. I have Jewish family and friends* but wouldn't even attempt to have a conversation about Israel with them.

As much as they are lovely people, there is zero sympathy or self reflection or acceptance when it comes to such things. It's all really quite depressing, and I just can't get my head around it all. Literally watching a 21st Century version of a holocaust on our TV Screens and nobody seems to batter an eyelid.

Albert wrote:Thank you for all the above responses. I have Jewish family and friends* but wouldn't even attempt to have a conversation about Israel with them.

As much as they are lovely people, there is zero sympathy or self reflection or acceptance when it comes to such things. It's all really quite depressing, and I just can't get my head around it all. Literally watching a 21st Century version of a holocaust on our TV Screens and nobody seems to batter an eyelid.

*I'm not racist, my best mate is black etc

I don't think you're an antisemite, but I do think it's a dangerous path to go down to start thinking in terms of "the Jews are running everything".

I'm absolutely not saying you are doing that btw! But be careful, it's a rabbit hole that way too many people have fallen into.