captain red dog wrote:The Tories had a decent poll lead last time and were generally united behind May. This time they are split like hell. The best a GE can do is another hung parliament depending on one factor.
I reckon the opposite, actually. I think that they'll unite all the Leavers behind their party, and position the GE as an issue of definitely leaving on October 31st or Brexit being lost to parliamentary squabbling. They'll position it as parliament versus "the people's will" and that they are the only party to deliver the latter.
I think a lot of people in the Conservative heartlands won't be able to vote Labour. They'll still turn Blue. But Johnson's position on Brexit means a lot of red Sears in the North will swing back to him.
It's the opposition I feel that is split. I think if Johnson goes hardline on Brexit, which he has to do or the Brexit Party will leech votes, then it'll be the Remain parties that suffer because of Farage's lot. I can't see the Lib Dems, SNP and Labour coherently working together and they'll be fighting for the same seats a lot of the time. And the Lib Dems and Labour (and Corbyn) all have different views on what they want and what they want Brexit to be.