Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Question 1: The General Election of the United Kingdom

(a) Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom following the election?

(b) From a maximum of 632, how many seats will be won by:

(i) Labour
(ii) The Tories
(iii) The SNP
(iv) The Liberal Democrats
(v) Reform UK
(vi) The Green Party

Question 2: The United States Presidential Election

(a) Which person will win the election?
(b) From a maximum of 538, how many electoral votes will the winning candidate receive?

Cuttooth wrote:1(a) Keir Starmer
1(b)

(i) 371
(ii) 200
(iii) 21
(iv) 35
(v) 0
(vi) 1

2(a) Joe Biden*
2(b) 270**

* barring any new far right insurrections
**barring any faithless elector shenanigans

I Shot A Kid wrote:I think I lied when I said I would certainly adjust my predictions. Now I feel like I should stick with my gut.

Just over 12 hours left to lock in!

Updated tracker:

I don't think I have the mental strength to deal with The Hypes Timeline

Wait, did I put 0 for the SNP? I definitely didn't mean that, revision incoming

I Shot A Kid wrote:LAB 430
CON 145
SNP 17
LD 55
REF 0
GREEN 3

My new predictions that acknowledge the concept of Scottish Nationalism.

The final tracker



Ob Bob's Obs

1. You're all already winners for having the guts to participate

2. If the actual outcome resembles our average, I will be delighted. Obviously, I'd prefer the Tories to get 0 seats, but realistically I'd have to be extremely pleased for them to be reduced to 165. In the essentially binary outcome of the US Presidential election, I'll also have to be enormously happy to see Biden clinch it, as the alternative is simply unbearable.

3. The day a Reform UK MP is elected will be a dark one indeed. Let us hope the modal average of 0 turns out to be more accurate than the mean.

4. There will undoubtedly be plenty to discuss about this in the coming months, but I think we're in for a truly awful, horrifying campaign. Look at how Brexit was won. We might not be plagued by relentless adverts on social media, hammering misinformation about migration and other topics abused to excite people, but you can bet a lot of people you know will. The Boomers are about to be bombarded by threats from all angles that will push them towards voting for Reform UK or the Conservative Party. It is going to be on a scale that would make the Brexit campaigners blush, and it will include deepfake videos of Starmer saying he will consider introducing Sharia Law in the UK once elected, Khan declaring forced observance of Ramadan across London, probably both of them announcing a policy to encourage children to change gender without telling their parents, etc, etc...

5. To attempt a more optimistic observation, the potential combination of Tory voters moving to Reform, and those inclined to Lib/Lab/Green voting tactically could, could, spell disaster for the Tories. There is some evidence to suggest this combination could manifest, possibly substantially.

6. I would prefer Tory wipeout to a forced Lab/Lib coalition (realistically, the Lib Dems are not going to win enough seats that'd mean we could have both). The danger then is what happens to a Labour government that would suddenly have enormous power, and would in all likelihood have been elected on very restrictive terms. Personally, I'd rather be worrying about that than everything we've had to worry about since 2019 (and before then).

7. Trump wasn't far off our average prediction. If he wins the election I will literally cry.

8. I really hope Dan wins, but I'll settle for Drummy.

Rishi Sunak appears to rule out spring general election

Answering a question from ITV about when it would take place, the prime minister replied: "My working assumption is we'll have a general election in the second half of this year."

Unsurprising. Get an October date in your anxiety diaries.

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:Rishi Sunak appears to rule out spring general election

Answering a question from ITV about when it would take place, the prime minister replied: "My working assumption is we'll have a general election in the second half of this year."

Unsurprising. Get an October date in your anxiety diaries.

He's just desperate to be able to say he was PM longer than Anthony Eden.

Delaying till October isn't too surprising but it's almost certainly delaying the inevitable. And it means more and more mortgaged voters feel the pinch of rolling off a low rate fixed deal and onto a much more expensive replacement. Plus the Summer months are safest for boat crossings too so you'd expect that to be in the news constantly.

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:Rishi Sunak appears to rule out spring general election

Answering a question from ITV about when it would take place, the prime minister replied: "My working assumption is we'll have a general election in the second half of this year."

Unsurprising. Get an October date in your anxiety diaries.

Potentially a Halloween General Election in the UK and Guy Fawkes USA Presidential Election less than a week later. The drama!

They’ll drag it out as long as possible and hope for a miracle - a war they can involve the country in, Labour imploding again, pandemic 2, a terrorist attack, some desperate angle in the culture war that’ll actually work, the opposition leader eating a sandwich in a way they can tell you is undignified, something along those lines.

If none of the above get them feeling like they can create an opening then it’s a game of chicken to see how long they can wait before cold weather keeps half their voters at home.

1(a) Sunak
1(b)
(Lab) 251
(Tories) 320
(SNP) 26
(Lib Dem) 35
(Green) 0
(Reform) 0
2(a) Trump
2(b) 288

Denster wrote:1(a) Sunak
1(b)
(Lab) 251
(Tories) 320
(SNP) 26
(Lib Dem) 35
(Green) 0
(Reform) 0
2(a) Trump
2(b) 288

I'm so glad you missed the deadline

Ah. i missed that. Oh well.

Denster wrote:1(a) Sunak
1(b)
(Lab) 251
(Tories) 320
(SNP) 26
(Lib Dem) 35
(Green) 0
(Reform) 0
2(a) Trump
2(b) 288