Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Xeno wrote:I think Greens are going to get more seats at the cost of the Tories tbh.

I'd like the Greens land a lot more seats, but simply can't see it happening, at the Tories' expense or anyone else's.

I think the Greens might get 2 seats this GE ("vote Labour to get the Tories out"), with a good base to build upon for the following GE ("Labour have been lacklustre, vote someone else").

They really are limited in what they can do without the same TV coverage as a party like Reform.

I can see the Greens taking Bristol Central and holding onto Brighton.

I'm not convinced they'll get anymore than that though.

I think Reform have been neutered by Farage's announcement. Genuinely surprised by it, but it sounds like he has got a plum job lined up in the US in the event the unspeakable happens.

Still think they'll take a chunk out of the Tory votes, but not as substantially as I was previously expecting.

I think there's a fair chance tbh.

Everyone knows Labour is going to win with a very large majority. That could give some folks - that would normally vote labour tactically, but in a PR system would vote Green (therearedozensofus.gif) - enough confidence to vote how they actually want without risking the Tories winning.

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:I think Reform have been neutered by Farage's announcement. Genuinely surprised by it, but it sounds like he has got a plum job lined up in the US in the event the unspeakable happens.

Still think they'll take a chunk out of the Tory votes, but not as substantially as I was previously expecting.

Supposedly he will be campaigning though

twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1793604320153440431

Tomous wrote:

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:I think Reform have been neutered by Farage's announcement. Genuinely surprised by it, but it sounds like he has got a plum job lined up in the US in the event the unspeakable happens.

Still think they'll take a chunk out of the Tory votes, but not as substantially as I was previously expecting.

Supposedly he will be campaigning though

twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1793604320153440431

Tice has said they'll stand in every English, Welsh and Scottish seat.

I guess they don't want to reform Northern Ireland at all.

Tomous wrote:

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:I think Reform have been neutered by Farage's announcement. Genuinely surprised by it, but it sounds like he has got a plum job lined up in the US in the event the unspeakable happens.

Still think they'll take a chunk out of the Tory votes, but not as substantially as I was previously expecting.

Supposedly he will be campaigning though

twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1793604320153440431

Yeah, saw that come out after. Could be the best of both worlds: more votes for Reform instead of the Tories, and no risk of the twat becoming an MP!

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:

Tomous wrote:

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:I think Reform have been neutered by Farage's announcement. Genuinely surprised by it, but it sounds like he has got a plum job lined up in the US in the event the unspeakable happens.

Still think they'll take a chunk out of the Tory votes, but not as substantially as I was previously expecting.

Supposedly he will be campaigning though

twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1793604320153440431

Yeah, saw that come out after. Could be the best of both worlds: more votes for Reform instead of the Tories, and no risk of the twat becoming an MP!

Judging by his 7 previous attempts I'm not sure there was much of risk of him becoming an MP either way

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:

Xeno wrote:I think Greens are going to get more seats at the cost of the Tories tbh.

I'd like the Greens land a lot more seats, but simply can't see it happening, at the Tories' expense or anyone else's.

I think maybe 2 more seats. No a clue where from other than every party will be picking apart the rotting Tory corpse.

Moggy wrote:Tice has said they'll stand in every English, Welsh and Scottish seat.

I guess they don't want to reform Northern Ireland at all.

They've allied with the TUV here, who are also strawberry floating awful.

twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1793698337960653055

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:

Lex-Man wrote:Might want to subtract 18 from the total number of seats to take account of the NI seats.

Good shout. Done!

Van Foster wrote:No guess attempt for SNP seat numbers?

Good shout. Done!

Sorry everyone please amend your predictions accordingly — you have just over 12 days to do so!

I'm expecting the election campaigns to really ramp up very quickly as we get into 2024. It'll be both interesting and potentially horrifying to see how our expectations shift as the chaos develops.

For what it's worth I suspect the SNP are facing a bit of a collapse now.

RetroCora wrote:

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:

Lex-Man wrote:Might want to subtract 18 from the total number of seats to take account of the NI seats.

Good shout. Done!

Van Foster wrote:No guess attempt for SNP seat numbers?

Good shout. Done!

Sorry everyone please amend your predictions accordingly — you have just over 12 days to do so!

I'm expecting the election campaigns to really ramp up very quickly as we get into 2024. It'll be both interesting and potentially horrifying to see how our expectations shift as the chaos develops.

For what it's worth I suspect the SNP are facing a bit of a collapse now.

Do you expect the Tories to get even a single seat up there? Or could Scotland become part of the Red Wall .

Moggy wrote:I can't be bothered to check, but I think I just copied the 1997 results for the UK election and the 2020 result for the US election.

As D:Ream are being played again, I'm confident that we are back in '97 territory and I will storm to victory in this super important forum game.

I took the average results of every poll for the last year, then continued the trend onwards to when I expected the election to be held (October), and used those numbers to calculate the swing.

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:

RetroCora wrote:

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:

Lex-Man wrote:Might want to subtract 18 from the total number of seats to take account of the NI seats.

Good shout. Done!

Van Foster wrote:No guess attempt for SNP seat numbers?

Good shout. Done!

Sorry everyone please amend your predictions accordingly — you have just over 12 days to do so!

I'm expecting the election campaigns to really ramp up very quickly as we get into 2024. It'll be both interesting and potentially horrifying to see how our expectations shift as the chaos develops.

For what it's worth I suspect the SNP are facing a bit of a collapse now.

Do you expect the Tories to get even a single seat up there? Or could Scotland become part of the Red Wall .

The Conservatives will win the seats they always win - in the borders, the North-East and maybe that one in Edinburgh that bounces around a bit. The SNP will probably win in Glasgow and a few other constituencies, and the Liberal Democrats will pick up the likes of East Dunbartonshire. Labour will be the big winners, but they still won't be anywhere near where they were prior to 2014. They never will be - they lost an awful lot of voters like me after 2014 who'll never go back to them.

Name wrote: Prototype
1(a) Starmer
1(b)
(i) 379
(ii)205
(iii) 32
(iv)13
(v)0
(vi) 3

2(a) Biden
2(b) 293

Prototype wrote:Name wrote: Prototype

You might want to read the rules on page 1.

what a strawberry floating idiot i am

Prototype wrote:what a strawberry floating idiot i am

You've gone and doxxed yourself Keir.