The final tracker
Ob Bob's Obs1. You're all already winners for having the guts to participate
2. If the actual outcome resembles our average, I will be delighted. Obviously, I'd prefer the Tories to get 0 seats, but realistically I'd have to be extremely pleased for them to be reduced to 165. In the essentially binary outcome of the US Presidential election, I'll also have to be enormously happy to see Biden clinch it, as the alternative is simply unbearable.
3. The day a Reform UK MP is elected will be a dark one indeed. Let us hope the modal average of 0 turns out to be more accurate than the mean.
4. There will undoubtedly be plenty to discuss about this in the coming months, but I think we're in for a truly awful, horrifying campaign. Look at how Brexit was won. We might not be plagued by relentless adverts on social media, hammering misinformation about migration and other topics abused to excite people, but you can bet a lot of people you know will. The Boomers are about to be bombarded by threats from all angles that will push them towards voting for Reform UK or the Conservative Party. It is going to be on a scale that would make the Brexit campaigners blush, and it will include deepfake videos of Starmer saying he will consider introducing Sharia Law in the UK once elected, Khan declaring forced observance of Ramadan across London, probably both of them announcing a policy to encourage children to change gender without telling their parents, etc, etc...
5. To attempt a more optimistic observation, the potential combination of Tory voters moving to Reform, and those inclined to Lib/Lab/Green voting tactically could,
could, spell disaster for the Tories. There is some evidence to suggest this combination could manifest, possibly substantially.
6. I would prefer Tory wipeout to a forced Lab/Lib coalition (realistically, the Lib Dems are not going to win enough seats that'd mean we could have both). The danger then is what happens to a Labour government that would suddenly have enormous power, and would in all likelihood have been elected on very restrictive terms. Personally, I'd rather be worrying about that than everything we've had to worry about since 2019 (and before then).
7. Trump wasn't far off our average prediction. If he wins the election I will literally cry.
8. I really hope Dan wins, but I'll settle for Drummy.
