Cuttooth wrote:Moggy wrote:Cuttooth wrote:Moggy wrote:Pre 2017 election Labour were polling at below 30%
Post 2017 election Labour jumped up to the high 30s, low 40s with the odd poll putting them as high as 45%.
They then slipped back down to below 30% before slightly recovering to the low 30s.
Your point was that Labour polled at 42-45% despite there being other parties. Which is true, but ignores the polling either side of the 2017 election and ignores that Labour lost in 2017. Corbyn at his most popular couldn't beat May at her least popular. That's mostly down to FPTP but the split in the left/centre-left vote makes it nearly impossible for Labour to win an election.
I'm not ignoring any of that! It's just a ridiculous notion that 36% of the vote is a good performance because there are multiple parties vying for the same type of voter when we know Labour has performed better in the, relatively, recent past in both opinion polls and actual elections.
Instead of the same cry of "the left eats itself!" every few months it's better to analyse why Labour started sliding from early 2018 and never recovered (with polling leads only due to the Brexit Party coming into existence) and why a current strategy of chasing Tory voters at the expense of the new core Labour voter isn't working.
The left is eating itself though. And under FPTP it's suicidal to not work together.
The Tories are getting 45%, with another 1% going to UKIP/Brexit Party/Waitrose Tommy Robinson.
Labour are getting 36% with the Lib Dem's getting 6% and Greens getting 5%.
The left and centre-left are "winning" the polls. But their vote share is divided up.
It was the same at the last election. The Tories got less than 44% of the vote. Labour, Lib Dem's and SNP got over 47% between them. Which meant an 80 seat Tory majority.
I'm well aware of the current divide, I'm just saying it's in Labour's power to
actually win a lot of those Lib Dem and Green votes.The reason they aren't is because the Lib Dems and Greens have been actively put off Starmer's Labour due to the party's unnecessary backing the Tories' Brexit deal and overall increased shift rightwards on some social issues.
And if Labour still want to follow it's current strategy of chasing Tory voters who are quite happy with the Tories then they have to at least consider a full of electoral pact with all three other parties it can possibly go into coalition with.
I don't think that's true. In the last 50 years, the only Labour leader to win was Blair. And he did that at a time when the Libs were getting 15%+ of the vote. He took disaffected Tories and convinced them that he was a safe bet.
We are in a different situation now, there are no Labour politicians that can reach across to Tory voters. The stench of what New Labour became and the increased polarisation of politics will stop Tory, Lib and Green voters switching in great numbers.
Go too left and they lose the Tory lite voters.
Go too central and they lose the socialist voters.
Their only hope is to agree to a pact with the other parties.
