GRcade

When it comes to the do or die moment I think Swinson would ultimately fall in line and support Corbyn in order to avoid No Deal. Doing so may piss of a few people in the Con/Lib marginals, but being seen to allow No Deal would piss off far more people in their current support base.

Lagamorph wrote:When it comes to the do or die moment I think Swinson would ultimately fall in line and support Corbyn in order to avoid No Deal. Doing so may piss of a few people in the Con/Lib marginals, but being seen to allow No Deal would piss off far more people in their current support base.

I agree.

I do think though that a caretaker PM should be somebody more neutral and not one of the party leaders. Harriet Harman, Ken Clarke etc are all good ideas for a national unity figurehead PM until the next election.

John Bercow as caretaker PM.

Dual wrote:John Bercow as caretaker PM.

Only if during PM Questions he just screams "ORDER ORDER" in Johnson's face.

Moggy wrote:

Lagamorph wrote:When it comes to the do or die moment I think Swinson would ultimately fall in line and support Corbyn in order to avoid No Deal. Doing so may piss of a few people in the Con/Lib marginals, but being seen to allow No Deal would piss off far more people in their current support base.

I agree.

I do think though that a caretaker PM should be somebody more neutral and not one of the party leaders. Harriet Harman, Ken Clarke etc are all good ideas for a national unity figurehead PM until the next election.

We're going to find out soon. I can't believe how close we are to crashing out.

Lagamorph wrote:When it comes to the do or die moment I think Swinson would ultimately fall in line and support Corbyn in order to avoid No Deal. Doing so may piss of a few people in the Con/Lib marginals, but being seen to allow No Deal would piss off far more people in their current support base.

The Lib Dems don't have a good recent track record of allying with Labour over the Conservatives. Bear in mind that while the Lib Dems and Labour are somewhat more aligned on Brexit and kind of "representation issues" (like queer equality etc., I'm sure there's a better phrase for that but it's escaping me), the Lib Dems and the Tories are much more aligned on fundamental issues of class interests. They are both fundamentally neoliberal parties.

It's not impossible don't get me wrong, I would also like to think that as a party positioning themselves as pro-EU centrists they would side with muddled-but-mostly-pro-EU social democrats over anti-EU far-right fascists, I'm just saying I won't be surprised if it goes the other way.

twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1181443140143779840

From British Election Study:

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1181500599512309760

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1181503357996978176

Corbyn's magic money tree is now better for the economy than Johnson's crash out Brexit.

Makes sense, after all Johnson did say "strawberry float business".

The thing is as soon as the Tories win an election they'll cut public spending again. That's where they'll find room for tax cuts.

Garth wrote:

twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1181443140143779840

From British Election Study:

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1181500599512309760

I feel dumb saying this but those graphs don't make any sense to me at all. There doesn't appear to be any time axis. Is it pointing out that we've become more anti-EU/ authoritarian/ anti- immigration and right wing? Or am I missing something.

Lex-Man wrote:

Garth wrote:

twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1181443140143779840

From British Election Study:

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1181500599512309760

I feel dumb saying this but those graphs don't make any sense to me at all. There doesn't appear to be any time axis. Is it pointing out that we've become more anti-EU/ authoritarian/ anti- immigration and right wing? Or am I missing something.

Y Axis is over time

Blue is tory
Red is labour

Shows how the views of the parties have changed and swapped

Y axis does not look like time in those diagrams

It's a pretty confusing graph.

I think what it means is, between 2015 to 2017:
1. (a) Pro-EU people have become less likely to vote Tory and more likely to vote Labour; (b) Anti-EU people have become much more likely to vote Tory.
2. (a) Anti-authoritarian (e.g. "socially liberal") people have become more likely to vote Labour; (b) fascists have become more likely to vote Tory.
3. (a) Pro-immigration people have become more likely to vote Labour; (b) racists have become much more likely to vote Tory.
4. Being economically socialist vs. (neo-)liberal hasn't been the driver of much change in party affinity.

Moggy wrote:

Samuel_1 wrote:

KK wrote:If you want Brexit delivered who else are you going to vote for. Boris thus far has a clear message: we’re leaving on October 31. Where he stands after that if we don’t is another matter.

Surprised Swinson isn’t above Corbyn though.

You must be joking, she's bloody awful and is seriously putting us at risk of a No Deal, due to her unwillingness to work with Corbyn.

I think she's open to working with him, just not for making him Prime Minister. The same accusation can therefore be made about Corbyn, he is putting us at risk of a No Deal due to his insistence that he be made caretaker PM.

She's said multiple times that she'd support him as a caretaker Prime Minister if he could get the votes necessary to do that. But even with Lib Dem support, he'd be around 30 votes short, and you need an absolute majority, which means getting the Tory rebels to support you too. Someone like Margaret Beckett, Harriet Harman, or Ken Clarke could possibly do that, but Corbyn has far too many people who absolutely would not support him under any circumstances.

Of the 650 total seats the Tories plus DUP currently only have 298. Obviously you need to discount the likes of Sinn Fein but surely the others should be able to get their gooseberry fool together to back a caretaker to see us back through to some degrees of sense and stability?

How does the process work, do they only get one shot at backing someone as caretaker PM or could multiple people be considered and voted on?

Garth wrote:How does the process work, do they only get one shot at backing someone as caretaker PM or could multiple people be considered and voted on?

Under the FTPA, a vote of no confidence can be called, after which there are 14 days where either Boris Johnson or anyone else can attempt to form a new government. That government will then need to be approved by a majority, which by necessity includes the Tory rebels. If no government is formed, then a general election must take place.

A prime minister being chosen this way gets all of the powers that a prime minister would have, and there's no obligation to honour any promises to be "time-limited", or to "only" ask for an Article 50 extension. This, in particular, is stopping the Tory rebels in particular from falling behind Corbyn.

Earfolds wrote:

Garth wrote:How does the process work, do they only get one shot at backing someone as caretaker PM or could multiple people be considered and voted on?

Under the FTPA, a vote of no confidence can be called, after which there are 14 days where either Boris Johnson or anyone else can attempt to form a new government. That government will then need to be approved by a majority, which by necessity includes the Tory rebels. If no government is formed, then a general election must take place.

A prime minister being chosen this way gets all of the powers that a prime minister would have, and there's no obligation to honour any promises to be "time-limited", or to "only" ask for an Article 50 extension. This, in particular, is stopping the Tory rebels in particular from falling behind Corbyn.

I think they are being overly paranoid there. If Corbyn suddenly decided to seize power and refuse an election then they could easily collapse his government.

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1181573030696427532

Moggy wrote:I think they are being overly paranoid there. If Corbyn suddenly decided to seize power and refuse an election then they could easily collapse his government.

Perhaps, but there are other reasons why they won't support Corbyn, and unlike everyone else right now, they can't be whipped to support anyone.