Politics Thread 6

[Moggy]

Don't worry, Caroline Lucas' all-female emergency cabinet will save us all.

They couldn’t do a worse job and we’ve had plenty of all-male cabinets.

[Knoyleo]

twitter.com/joan0fsnark/status/1160600426397519873

[KK]

YouGov Crime - The Public Back Boris

Three quarters (74%) of Britons approve of greater stop and search powers

Police in England and Wales are having greater stop and search powers extended, making it easier for them to use “Section 60” powers, where for a limited time they can stop and search anyone in an area if they believe there is a risk of violence. Do Brits approve or disapprove of police being given greater powers around this?

Three-quarters (74%) approve, while 14% disapprove

A majority of Labour (61%) and Conservative (93%) voters approve of this.

The BBC has reported that drug crime is increasing in smaller towns and villages, while decreasing in city centres.

59% of Brits believe there is a drugs problem in their local area – 21% say there is ‘very much’ a problem, and 38% say ‘somewhat’.

30% say there is not very much of a drugs problem, or not much at all.

Those aged 18-24 (12%) are much less likely than those over 50 (22-23%) to say there is 'very much' a drugs problem in their local area

Northerners (25%) are the most likely to say there is ‘very much’ a drugs problem in their area, while Londoners (15%) are the least likely

[That]

Love to address social + economic problems with police crackdowns. Very smart and cool.

[Moggy]

74% of the public are strawberry floating idiots.

[Lagamorph]

Are there enough police officers left to stop and search anyone?

[Godzilla]

Only if they only search minorities

[tolrag]

twitter.com/richard_littler/status/1160261102523080706

strawberry floating hell

Dick (Dick Braine, not Dick Britain from this thread) turns up to reply to him as well.

[Abacus]

I couldn't vote for Corbyn, despite mainly being a labour voter in the past.

So. Lib Dems, I suppose.

[Moggy]

twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1161249172865134592

Deliberate leak or is Hinds a complete idiot? Or both.

[Lex-Man]

twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1161249172865134592

Deliberate leak or is Hinds a complete idiot? Or both.

Could be both, he's no fan of Boris so this could be some attempt at forcing an election. He's also going to have a really interesting balancing act fighting the next election being that he quit when Boris got elected. He's in a marginal pro remain place as well.

[Denster]

Looking like September could be one of the most interesting months in politics for a long time. A period that may be studied by future generations given the potential for intrigue, strife and tumult. All kinds of scenarios are possible.

[Rex Kramer]

Given recent times, I'm putting my money on tribalism with a healthy dollop of stupidity being the predominant scenario.

[Moggy]

Looking like September could be one of the most interesting months in politics for a long time. A period that may be studied by future generations given the potential for intrigue, strife and tumult. All kinds of scenarios are possible.

Yeah things are going to be interesting. There are so many possibilities that it is impossible to predict.

An election seems very likely, but is Johnson going to try and arrange it for 1 November (or similar date) to force a No Deal? I can see him calculating that it would ensure he gets all the Brexit Party votes, but surely Labour, Lib Dems and SNP would vote against such an election?

If he goes for an election before 31 October then I think the other parties would support it, but he’d be risking the BP taking votes away from him if his manifesto is anything other than “HARD NO DEAL BREXIT NOW”. And if he goes for that line, then moderate Tories/Remainers/floating voters may well be tempted towards the Lib Dems.

[Squinty]

I predict it will be before. Because he needs it to be before. He won't be able to pass anything, he doesn't have the numbers.

I don't think we will leave on 31st, tbh.

[Moggy]

I predict it will be before. Because he needs it to be before. He won't be able to pass anything, he doesn't have the numbers.

I don't think we will leave on 31st, tbh.

If he wants No Deal Brexit though then he doesn’t want to pass anything. An election around 1 November would suit Johnson (if he actually wants No Deal!), he’d shut Parliament down for the election and there would be no stopping it.

Although that’s also the reason I think he will not do it. Labour/Lib Dems/SNP would surely block any attempt at calling an election just to force through No Deal. Johnson might try it as a stunt though I guess, “See, I wanted an election and they stopped me despite Corbyn saying he wanted one!”.

I don’t know anymore if leaving on 31 October is likely or not. Johnson has backed himself into a corner with it, anything less than leaving with No Deal on 31 October will be pounced on by the Brexit Party and the eurosceptic Tories. He’s going to be forced to try and do it. It all comes down to if he calls an election before the deadline or if Parliament can stop him.

[Denster]

I think if he loses the vote of no confidence - he'll delay in all the ways he can so that the GE is after Oct 31st. Before oct 31st makes no sense for the conservatives. I can't see Boris willingly calling for one under any circumstances.
I think his strategy is two fold.
Win a vote of no confidence and use that to have one last chance ta change in the deal with the EU or No deal exit.
Lose the vote of no confidence (not the strategy but is obvious a very real possibility) and delay by attempting to form a government - having as many votes as possible and then using his discretionary power to call the date after Oct 31st. That will ensure the exit and thus ensure they take BP out of the equation in the GE.

If he manages to pull that off (second option) - I honestly think that would deliver us a working majority.
Labour/lib dems any remainers might be considering not having the vote of confidence and delaying/getting a further extension. Boris proroguing or attempting to is
far more damaging to him than delaying after a vote of no confidence. A Brexit delay or extension would also reduce his chances of a GE victory further due to increasing pressure that would bring from the BP.

I'll be very interested to see when and if Corbyn calls for the Vote. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at any of the leaders meetings at the moment.

[Moggy]

If he manages to pull that off (second option) - I honestly think that would deliver us a working majority.

You might be right but I think we might all be overestimating the Brexit Party vote. They have lots of hype but have yet to be tested in a General Election, UKIP never destroyed the Tories and I think a resurgent Lib Dems are a bigger threat. If we end up in a 2010 scenario, then the Lib Dems are possibly going to hold the keys to power again.

The country was split 50-50 in the referendum and all that has happened since is a further split in the Leave vote (between soft and hard Brexit). If Johnson believes that all he has to do is convince BP voters to back him, then he may well get a shock when right wing Remainers and soft Brexit Tories turn away from the party.

Overconfidence killed May, let’s hope it also kills Johnson.

[Denster]

It wasn't overconfidence on its own. It was her ineptness at campaigning as well. I genuinely don't think the Tories you highlight will turn away either. It's all speculation of course.
Its going to be very interesting.

[Moggy]

It wasn't overconfidence on its own. It was her ineptness at campaigning as well. I genuinely don't think the Tories you highlight will turn away either. It's all speculation of course.
Its going to be very interesting.

I don’t disagree she was inept, but the whole snap election was based on massive overconfidence. She seemed to genuinely believe at the time that she was the new Iron Lady.

Boris is just as arrogant as to assume he’d easily win an election but he is more cunning when it comes to protecting his position. He’s going to have to call an election though so the date just comes down to how much he wants to kill off the Brexit Party.

We have already seen Tory MPs defecting and quitting. I agree the Tory voters might hold their noses if they thought Corbyn would become PM, but there is a good chance that nobody will have a majority and the Lib Dem’s could stop Corbyn getting the keys to Number 10. That may well lead moderate Tories to pick the Lib Dems or to not bother voting. And overconfidence (such as you have shown assuming you’d get a good majority) will play into it if disaffected Tories decide not to vote.