Oblomov Boblomov wrote:I think the idea that anyone take centre stage within the next three years or so and push Labour ahead in long-term mainstream polling is total fantasy.
The window of opportunity will open around six months before the next general election. It will be the eye of a needle and we just need to hope the proverbial camel turns up in miraculous fashion, with a message that can somehow get through to the horrifyingly substantial percentage of the electorate that doesn't care about facts, evidence, objective analysis, fairness or equality, and responds only to primitive, instinctive emotional reasoning.
I genuinely don't see how anyone is going to beat the Tories in England and therefore the UK (especially when/if Scotland leaves)
Politics seems to have morphed. It's still tribalism - but it's more about upsetting/pissing off your perceived enemies (or being charitable simple beating them).
You don't seem to even be assume people will be convinced by self interest any more. Milliband, Corbyn and Starmer all had policies that were great for large swatches of the public, but they'd rather vote against the interest to "stick to the establishment/EU/Status Quo etc". They don't seem to care if they're suffering, as long the think/can claim victory over the other side/the enemy. (See Tories desperately trying to start a culture war)
Despite the deaths, disaster and corruption the Tories are still ahead, and most polls comfortably so. Johnson is seen as a better PM than Starmer by something like 15 to 20 points. Nothing breaks through the "new style" tribalism.
I don't know how you even begin to counter that - and looking at a lot of western elections recently, neither does anyone else.