Politics Thread 6

[Rocsteady]

With the Guardian's headline that 7% of 17 yo's have tried taking their own lives, putting effective mental health support at the forefront of any campaign would seem an easy win, and would actually give beginnings of different policies.

[Lex-Man]

I think the idea that anyone take centre stage within the next three years or so and push Labour ahead in long-term mainstream polling is total fantasy.

The window of opportunity will open around six months before the next general election. It will be the eye of a needle and we just need to hope the proverbial camel turns up in miraculous fashion, with a message that can somehow get through to the horrifyingly substantial percentage of the electorate that doesn't care about facts, evidence, objective analysis, fairness or equality, and responds only to primitive, instinctive emotional reasoning.

That's a genuinely terrible way to try to win any kind of election. It simply won't work.

I'm not sure how you've interpreted my post (as some single-minded, blinkered strategy to target only current Tory voters and forget about everything else, maybe?) but I'm thinking much more generally, simply about converting enough votes overall. How else do you win an election?

You seem to be suggesting (and to be fair Starmer seems to agree with you) that the only chance to win an election campaign is in the six months leading up to it, rather than it being an actual long slog of ongoing work to make a continuous good impression.

That six month before the election is the most important but you need to build something up before you get there so you have the foundation to push off.

Yeah it's not like I disagree with that, I just can't see an opening to achieve a material lead in the polls until we get right up towards that ~six months timeframe.

Anyone reading this in 2022/23, enjoying a healthy Labour lead over the Tories that isn't just a flash in the pan, please do quote the gooseberry fool out of me and I will happily celebrate being wrong!

I would argue that Starmer isn't building the base he needs to fight an election.

[Rex Kramer]

Does it all really matter? I mean, 120,000 dead, a total incompetent in charge, widespread corruption from ministers, the worst possible Brexit deal aside from no deal and they still hold a lead in the polls. I don't think it matters who is in charge of the labour party.

[Drumstick]

The royals are the absolute least of this country's worries and are on the whole reasonably harmless in comparison to say, ooh, I dunno, the Tories.

The right-wing media are demonising MegHan (can't possibly think why????) in an attempt to deflect the failings of Bozo and 100,000 needless deaths.

They're certainly not the absolute least of the country's worries. I think the reverence to the Royal family helps the 'know your place' attitude of our society which leads to the Tory party in government

That's a really interesting angle; not one I'd considered previously. Food for thought.

[That]

I'm not sure how you've interpreted my post (as some single-minded, blinkered strategy to target only current Tory voters and forget about everything else, maybe?) but I'm thinking much more generally, simply about converting enough votes overall. How else do you win an election?

You seem to be suggesting (and to be fair Starmer seems to agree with you) that the only chance to win an election campaign is in the six months leading up to it, rather than it being an actual long slog of ongoing work to make a continuous good impression.

That six month before the election is the most important but you need to build something up before you get there so you have the foundation to push off.

It's interesting that Labour don't appear to be galvanising a core base of support at the moment. I do think Starmer had a fair amount of goodwill at the start, particularly in the liberal media. Of course there are people supporting Labour, but right now there doesn't seem to be many people who are really excited about advocating for Labour.

Presumably Labour do internally have a roadmap for who they want to win over in the next three years, so I think they need a strategy to build up enthusiasm in whatever those groups are. I think you do as a political party need to be cultivating that support actively, by having a good idea of what you stand for and making a loud and confident argument for why Labour policy is better than e.g. Tory policy for that target group.

[Lex-Man]

I'm not sure how you've interpreted my post (as some single-minded, blinkered strategy to target only current Tory voters and forget about everything else, maybe?) but I'm thinking much more generally, simply about converting enough votes overall. How else do you win an election?

You seem to be suggesting (and to be fair Starmer seems to agree with you) that the only chance to win an election campaign is in the six months leading up to it, rather than it being an actual long slog of ongoing work to make a continuous good impression.

That six month before the election is the most important but you need to build something up before you get there so you have the foundation to push off.

It's interesting that Labour don't appear to be galvanising a core base of support at the moment. I do think Starmer had a fair amount of goodwill at the start, particularly in the liberal media. Of course there are people supporting Labour, but right now there doesn't seem to be many people who are really excited about advocating for Labour.

Presumably Labour do internally have a roadmap for who they want to win over in the next three years, so I think they need a strategy to build up enthusiasm in whatever those groups are. I think you do as a political party need to be cultivating that support actively, by having a good idea of what you stand for and making a loud and confident argument for why Labour policy is better than e.g. Tory policy for that target group.

They definitely need some kind of public road map about how they're going to be different from the Tories.

EDIT: It's pretty bad to say, but I think that Starmer just looks a bit weak. When he was the debut leader I remember him sounding like quite a strong powerful speaker but now he seems squeaky and unsure of himself. I really think his confidence is shot.

In fairness when he took over Labour did improve in the polls but now Tories seem to be getting back into the lead.

[Cuttooth]

I think the idea that anyone take centre stage within the next three years or so and push Labour ahead in long-term mainstream polling is total fantasy.

The window of opportunity will open around six months before the next general election. It will be the eye of a needle and we just need to hope the proverbial camel turns up in miraculous fashion, with a message that can somehow get through to the horrifyingly substantial percentage of the electorate that doesn't care about facts, evidence, objective analysis, fairness or equality, and responds only to primitive, instinctive emotional reasoning.

That's a genuinely terrible way to try to win any kind of election. It simply won't work.

I'm not sure how you've interpreted my post (as some single-minded, blinkered strategy to target only current Tory voters and forget about everything else, maybe?) but I'm thinking much more generally, simply about converting enough votes overall. How else do you win an election?

You seem to be suggesting (and to be fair Starmer seems to agree with you) that the only chance to win an election campaign is in the six months leading up to it, rather than it being an actual long slog of ongoing work to make a continuous good impression.

I could obviously be wrong but unfortunately that is how I see it, at least to quite an extent. People like us get caught up in it in the everyday, interacting in online discussion or whatever else, but I don't think enough public consciousness is active until it gets towards the business end. Not enough to cut through in a meaningful way to many undecideds or swing voters, who won't be arsed about looking back 2, 3, 4 years when it comes to it at the next GE.

Those of us who are paying attention appear to be too deeply entrenched to even consider switching from our chosen one of the two main 'sides' of debate. Certainly there would have to be a cataclysmic shift for me to switch sides. I can't even imagine what that would look like, and I expect someone voting Tory/Brexit would say the same.

This is absolutely true in more normal times. But during a once in a generation crisis the public are much more tuned in to who is in charge of the country, what their decisions are, and what the alternative is. Starmer had a decent first impression from simply not being Corbyn but his consistent reluctance to put forward what exactly, if anything, he and the party now stand for beyond that means more and more people don't see a Starmer led government as a genuine alternative. "Don't worry about it, check back with me when I decide what's in the manifesto in 2024" and some insincere spin on nationalism simply won't win an election. At all.

I think the idea that anyone take centre stage within the next three years or so and push Labour ahead in long-term mainstream polling is total fantasy.

The window of opportunity will open around six months before the next general election. It will be the eye of a needle and we just need to hope the proverbial camel turns up in miraculous fashion, with a message that can somehow get through to the horrifyingly substantial percentage of the electorate that doesn't care about facts, evidence, objective analysis, fairness or equality, and responds only to primitive, instinctive emotional reasoning.

That's a genuinely terrible way to try to win any kind of election. It simply won't work.

I'm not sure how you've interpreted my post (as some single-minded, blinkered strategy to target only current Tory voters and forget about everything else, maybe?) but I'm thinking much more generally, simply about converting enough votes overall. How else do you win an election?

You seem to be suggesting (and to be fair Starmer seems to agree with you) that the only chance to win an election campaign is in the six months leading up to it, rather than it being an actual long slog of ongoing work to make a continuous good impression.

That six month before the election is the most important but you need to build something up before you get there so you have the foundation to push off.

Yes, exactly. It makes decisions like scrapping a grassroots campaign team absolutely maddening. A lot of people said Labour should learn the lessons on electability from the Democrats' win in November but don't apparently care this ought to include things like a primary season for selecting party candidates and low level activism, instead of just writing some opinion pieces in The Times or whatever.

It's like looking at Brexit and thinking it came out of nowhere from 2015-16 instead of being a years long campaign that pushed itself into mainstream politics.

[Return_of_the_STAR]

For me the current covid situation is causing a lot of apathy towards politics at the moment. A lot of lives, businesses and institutions are effectively on pause at the moment. All anyone wants to talk about is covid.

[Grumpy David]

People still defending useless Corbyn. Ideological purity means nothing if you can't win an election.

Saw this on /r/ukpolitics it's from Private Eye.



Wasn't even aware of this story but it sounds like it has room to grow.

[Dual]

Labour Party. just lol

[Lex-Man]

I should really read the Private Eyes I pay for.

[Outrunner]

Of course there are people supporting Labour, but right now there doesn't seem to be many people who are really excited about advocating for Labour.

I count myself in that group. I joined Labour the party under Corbyn for various reasons. I stuck around for Starmer and actually voted for him (which I now regret) but I'm no longer excited about the Labour Party. I'm considering dropping my membership and I'm not sure I'm excited enough about any party to switch membership. I could see myself voting Green if the Tories hadn't got uncomfortably close in the last General Election in what has been a safe Labour seat for years.

[BID0]

People still defending useless Corbyn. Ideological purity means nothing if you can't win an election.

Saw this on /r/ukpolitics it's from Private Eye.



Wasn't even aware of this story but it sounds like it has room to grow.

That’s from the Labour leaks (last year?). The source of the WhatsApp messages are from someone in the WhatsApp group chat who backed up the chat via their Labour email address, presumably to use as leverage against others in the chat in the future

Unfortunately because they didn’t use a private email account and used their Labour one it was picked up and led to the internal investigation in to the 2017 election, including internal racism and bullying and anti semetism. The investigation was iced when Starmer took over and that’s when the document was leaked. The people who were being investigated were then paid damages with membership money

Because of the contents of that WhatsApp chat, it’s apparently a minefield that Starmer is keen to keep a lid on

[Meep]

With the Guardian's headline that 7% of 17 yo's have tried taking their own lives, putting effective mental health support at the forefront of any campaign would seem an easy win, and would actually give beginnings of different policies.

Shocking statistic. What source are they citing?

[Rocsteady]

With the Guardian's headline that 7% of 17 yo's have tried taking their own lives, putting effective mental health support at the forefront of any campaign would seem an easy win, and would actually give beginnings of different policies.

Shocking statistic. What source are they citing?

Link here, seemed incredibly high to me:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... dApp_Other

[Moggy]

twitter.com/KatyMontgomerie/status/1363986578251603969

strawberry float me

They'll wheel out the likes of Farage for "balance" on climate change, but strawberry float talking to a trans person on trans issues.

[Zilnad]

My blood is boiling.

[Drumstick]

So they've essentially determined that the views of the trans community do not need to be featured or reflected upon by their programming.

Wonderful.

[Balladeer]

I’ve submitted my complaint. Just appalling.

[Godzilla]

twitter.com/agnesfrim/status/1364192729777987584