Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon

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Tomous
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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Tomous » Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:48 pm

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:I look forward to them competing against each other to prove who hates trans people the most :dread:.

How would a merge with Reform even work? I can't see Reform MPs simply agreeing to become Tory MPs.



Basically would mean making Farage leader of the Tory party

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Oblomov Boblomov » Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:56 pm

Yikes, so it'd essentially be retaining the Tory brand but a Reform takeover? I feel sick at the very thought!

How many Tory MPs would refuse to be part of that? (I hate them all, but realistically they're not all Reform-level evil... right?)
How many voters do they lose by doing that? Half the membership doesn't want it, apparently.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Moggy » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:17 pm

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:Yikes, so it'd essentially be retaining the Tory brand but a Reform takeover? I feel sick at the very thought!

How many Tory MPs would refuse to be part of that? (I hate them all, but realistically they're not all Reform-level evil... right?)
How many voters do they lose by doing that? Half the membership doesn't want it, apparently.


Where are the Tory MPs that disagree going to go? They don't have many "sensible" ones left, Johnson kicked them all out in 2019.

Half the members don't want it at the moment (which means half do want it!). But if it ever happened, then like good little sheep, they'll convince themselves it's all good.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by rinks » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:19 pm

I assume a merger would require a membership vote, while the leader is selected by Tory MPs.

Not sure they could just make Farage leader as part of a deal. I’d have thought he’d have to become a Conservative then stand in a leadership election. With no guarantee, he wouldn’t make that move.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Moggy » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:22 pm

rinks wrote:I assume a merger would require a membership vote, while the leader is selected by Tory MPs.

Not sure they could just make Farage leader as part of a deal. I’d have thought he’d have to become a Conservative then stand in a leadership election. With no guarantee, he wouldn’t make that move.


A full merger would probably require the members to vote.

Making Farage leader wouldn't. He'd just have to cross the floor and get the backing of the Tory MPs.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Hexx » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:23 pm

Reform's a company not a party though. If they merged into Reform all rules off.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Cuttooth » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:26 pm

rinks wrote:I assume a merger would require a membership vote, while the leader is selected by Tory MPs.

Not sure they could just make Farage leader as part of a deal. I’d have thought he’d have to become a Conservative then stand in a leadership election. With no guarantee, he wouldn’t make that move.

My guess is that Braverman's leadership pitch will be to 'unite the right' by proposing a formal merging with Reform, adding the five Reform MPs and however few councillors they have into the Conservative party.

As part of that I could see her offering Farage a top shadow cabinet position, maybe even Shadow Chancellor, in exchange for him not challenging for the leadership for a couple of years.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by rinks » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:29 pm

Moggy wrote:
rinks wrote:I assume a merger would require a membership vote, while the leader is selected by Tory MPs.

Not sure they could just make Farage leader as part of a deal. I’d have thought he’d have to become a Conservative then stand in a leadership election. With no guarantee, he wouldn’t make that move.


A full merger would probably require the members to vote.

Making Farage leader wouldn't. He'd just have to cross the floor and get the backing of the Tory MPs.


I think that’s the same as what I said. And he wouldn’t change party unless he’s ensured the leadership.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Moggy » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:29 pm

Cuttooth wrote:
rinks wrote:I assume a merger would require a membership vote, while the leader is selected by Tory MPs.

Not sure they could just make Farage leader as part of a deal. I’d have thought he’d have to become a Conservative then stand in a leadership election. With no guarantee, he wouldn’t make that move.

My guess is that Braverman's leadership pitch will be to 'unite the right' by proposing a formal merging with Reform, adding the five Reform MPs and however few councillors they have into the Conservative party.

As part of that I could see her offering Farage a top shadow cabinet position, maybe even Shadow Chancellor, in exchange for him not challenging for the leadership for a couple of years.


That's very plausible. Farage would then stab her in the back at the first opportunity, he wouldn't care about any agreement.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Victor Mildew » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:30 pm

How long before Nadine Doris is all over Farage?

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by rinks » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:30 pm

Cuttooth wrote:
rinks wrote:I assume a merger would require a membership vote, while the leader is selected by Tory MPs.

Not sure they could just make Farage leader as part of a deal. I’d have thought he’d have to become a Conservative then stand in a leadership election. With no guarantee, he wouldn’t make that move.

My guess is that Braverman's leadership pitch will be to 'unite the right' by proposing a formal merging with Reform, adding the five Reform MPs and however few councillors they have into the Conservative party.

As part of that I could see her offering Farage a top shadow cabinet position, maybe even Shadow Chancellor, in exchange for him not challenging for the leadership for a couple of years.

Not sure that would be enough for the Reform lot.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Moggy » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:31 pm

rinks wrote:
Moggy wrote:
rinks wrote:I assume a merger would require a membership vote, while the leader is selected by Tory MPs.

Not sure they could just make Farage leader as part of a deal. I’d have thought he’d have to become a Conservative then stand in a leadership election. With no guarantee, he wouldn’t make that move.


A full merger would probably require the members to vote.

Making Farage leader wouldn't. He'd just have to cross the floor and get the backing of the Tory MPs.


I think that’s the same as what I said. And he wouldn’t change party unless he’s ensured the leadership.


It's not really the same, you said he'd have to stand in a leadership election. Before crossing the floor, he'd have made sure he'd be unopposed in a leadership bid.

But Cutty's scenario is more likely.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Moggy » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:33 pm

rinks wrote:
Cuttooth wrote:
rinks wrote:I assume a merger would require a membership vote, while the leader is selected by Tory MPs.

Not sure they could just make Farage leader as part of a deal. I’d have thought he’d have to become a Conservative then stand in a leadership election. With no guarantee, he wouldn’t make that move.

My guess is that Braverman's leadership pitch will be to 'unite the right' by proposing a formal merging with Reform, adding the five Reform MPs and however few councillors they have into the Conservative party.

As part of that I could see her offering Farage a top shadow cabinet position, maybe even Shadow Chancellor, in exchange for him not challenging for the leadership for a couple of years.

Not sure that would be enough for the Reform lot.


With the current Tory decimation, Farage would probably be happy with a top role, while letting Braverman take the heat for the disasters the Tories will be going through over the next year or two.

The other Reform MPs have no say in it. It's Farage's company.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by rinks » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:35 pm

The backing of the Tory MPs is the leadership election. There’s no way he could know he would be uncontested. The Tory MPs aren’t all going to accept him as leader.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Moggy » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:39 pm

rinks wrote:The backing of the Tory MPs is the leadership election. There’s no way he could know he would be uncontested. The Tory MPs aren’t all going to accept him as leader.


He'd be able to easily find out if the top Tories back him. A backbencher might try and stand, but they'd get strawberry float all votes if the top names united behind Farage.

The Tory leadership has only ever gone to the members twice in the entire history of the party. It's unlikely that Farage would jump ship without knowing it was really bloody unlikely it'd get to the membership vote stage.

And even if there was an outside chance of that, he'd be confident enough that the members would back him over some no-name centrist backbencher. And he'd be right, the Tory members voted for Johnson and Truss, they'd love Farage.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Oblomov Boblomov » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:39 pm

Moggy wrote:
Oblomov Boblomov wrote:Yikes, so it'd essentially be retaining the Tory brand but a Reform takeover? I feel sick at the very thought!

How many Tory MPs would refuse to be part of that? (I hate them all, but realistically they're not all Reform-level evil... right?)
How many voters do they lose by doing that? Half the membership doesn't want it, apparently.


Where are the Tory MPs that disagree going to go? They don't have many "sensible" ones left, Johnson kicked them all out in 2019.

Half the members don't want it at the moment (which means half do want it!). But if it ever happened, then like good little sheep, they'll convince themselves it's all good.


They are strawberry floated aren't they, it's brilliant*, and they've got no one to blame but themselves after their race to the bottom in pursuit of power based on myopic, superficial populism. Bwahahahaaaa :lol:.

I think there's an area somewhere between 'sensible Tory' and 'evil Tory' that even some of the 2019 intake will fit into, and certainly members who've simply been signed up for decades as loyal voters – surely there would be at least some attrition in the event they effectively went full Nazi. Maybe there wouldn't, and they'd just keep repeating phrases like 'broad church' at us.

Then again, maybe they won't mind, because they can backfill any votes lost with this new generation of boys/young men who seem to love Reform :dread:.

*obviously not actually brilliant, as it's led to an uprising of the far right

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Cuttooth » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:42 pm

To be honest I don't think my scenario is all that likely to happen because enough Tory MPs will just block Braverman from being one of the final two candidates if she did say she wants to fold Reform into the Conservative party.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by Lex-Man » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:42 pm

Moggy wrote:
Oblomov Boblomov wrote:I look forward to them competing against each other to prove who hates trans people the most :dread:.

How would a merge with Reform even work? I can't see Reform MPs simply agreeing to become Tory MPs.


They'd be the opposition, Farage would be leader and they'd get some nice shadow cabinet roles?

They'd definitely do it.


Reform are also one MP short of getting about half a mil funding for their party so merging would give them access to a lot more cash to develop stuff.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by rinks » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:46 pm

The problem for the Tories doing any kind of deal, either with Farage or his company, is that their aim would be to get back all those voters. But 4mn people voted for Reform because they are sick of the Tories. If Farage immediately jumps into bed with the Conservatives, I don’t think those voters are all going to follow. Some will. But some moderate Conservative voters will go elsewhere.

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PostRe: Politics Thread 8: Starmergeddon
by rinks » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:47 pm

Lex-Man wrote:Reform are also one MP short of getting about half a mil funding for their party so merging would give them access to a lot more cash to develop stuff.

In that case, I’d have thought they’d woo one or two specific Tories to switch to Reform.


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