Brexit

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:43 am

The government's new analysis of the impact of Brexit says the UK would be worse off outside the European Union under every scenario modelled, BuzzFeed News can reveal.

The assessment, which is titled “EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing” and dated January 2018, looked at three of the most plausible Brexit scenarios based on existing EU arrangements.

Under a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, UK growth would be 5% lower over the next 15 years compared to current forecasts, according to the analysis.

The "no deal" scenario, which would see the UK revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, would reduce growth by 8% over that period. The softest Brexit option of continued single-market access through membership of the European Economic Area would, in the longer term, still lower growth by 2%.

These calculations do not take into account any short-term hits to the economy from Brexit, such as the cost of adjusting the economy to new customs arrangements.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... .kb7njrX4l

PostRe: Brexit by **Errkal** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:00 am

You know it is strawberry floated when even buzzfeed is saying it is strawberry floated.

PostRe: Brexit by **Lagamorph** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:07 am

The most disgusting part of this is that the document was intended to be for ministers only and never made public. It was never even intended for MPs outside of the cabinet.

twitter.com/faisalislam/status/958109111496970248

PostRe: Brexit by **Squinty** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:24 am

Liam Fox woke up and ate his cornflakes, then realised his dreams aren't based in reality and never will be.

It only took him 18 months.

PostRe: Brexit by **Rex Kramer** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:46 am

Fox knew how this was going to shake down, he's not a complete idiot. It's just he was hoping the fervent jingoism would be enough to carry it across the line. This whole exercise has been an attempt to push a hard right Tory viewpoint on the entire electorate. Taking back control? Don't make me strawberry floating laugh.

PostRe: Brexit by **DML** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:57 am

Just so everyone's aware, 2% dip in the economy is recorded as recession.

So a hard Brexit will see four times that, And that's in a report made by the government themselves.

So to get to this pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, we have to go through a recession four times as deep as a standard one. Whilst being still in austerity. Oh and it'll take 15 years minimum.

It couldn't be clearer, its evidence that would pass in court, but no the deniers will be here no doubt to talk about how money doesn't matter, it's only a forecast....so boring and predictable.

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:04 am

DML wrote: it's only a forecast....so boring and predictable.

Apparently Duncan-Smith is already saying that “all government forecasts have been wrong, why would this be any different”.

What he misses of course is that there have been no government forecasts at all that show anything positive from Brexit. Nothing at all. Sure the forecasts might be slightly wrong but they are not going to be massively wrong. For example KK posted a story from last week that growth was stronger than expected, but it was 0.5% growth rather than the predicted 0.4% growth.

If there was any chance that Brexit would be positive, then they would have the reports to show it and would be highlighting it to everybody. The fact that they have nothing proves that they know it is going to be bad for the economy.

PostRe: Brexit by **Rex Kramer** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:16 am

He isn't missing that but his only argument at this point has to be 'the forecasts are wrong'. He can't even claim other forecasts are different as they're all the same. But he doesn't care, he just needs to get this through. He's banked his political (and I'd wager his financial) future on this and the 60 odd million of us who are going to pay for it can go swing.

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:20 am

Rex Kramer wrote:He isn't missing that but his only argument at this point has to be 'the forecasts are wrong'. He can't even claim other forecasts are different as they're all the same. But he doesn't care, he just needs to get this through. He's banked his political (and I'd wager his financial) future on this and the 60 odd million of us who are going to pay for it can go swing.

Oh I am sure he knows it. I should have worded it as "what he misses out".

PostRe: Brexit by **DML** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:32 am

Thing is even if there was a great economic future outside the EU....none of us lot would even benefit from it! We'd get three recessions in our lifetime, live poorer lives only to set up the next generation!

And that's in Fantasy Brexit was which highly likely isn't reality. I don't know what more can be done to wake people up. Immigration is going to continue whatever happens.

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:45 am

DML wrote:Thing is even if there was a great economic future outside the EU....none of us lot would even benefit from it! We'd get three recessions in our lifetime, live poorer lives only to set up the next generation!

I think I have already had more than three in my lifetime. :lol:

I am opposed to Brexit on a number of basis. I consider myself a European, I think Europe would be better working together rather than opposing nations. I like having free movement. Etc etc etc. So even if the economic outlook looked wonderful, I would still disagree with Brexit.

But Leavers don’t even have that, the economic consequences look dire. They really are only left with blue passports as the one thing that they can cling to.

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:50 am

twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/958249067968172033

PostRe: Brexit by **Lagamorph** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:54 am

Damn, my plan to bring EU flags has been foiled.

PostRe: Brexit by **Lagamorph** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:20 am

Government sources say the UK will not be worse off, and its preferred bespoke trade deal option was not analysed

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:30 am

Lagamorph wrote:
Government sources say the UK will not be worse off, and its preferred bespoke trade deal option was not analysed

It makes complete sense to spend time and money to analyse all the options that you wouldn’t go for and not bother doing it for the option that do you want.

PostRe: Brexit by **Lagamorph** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:31 am

I love the top of today's Express front page

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:38 am

Lagamorph wrote:I love the top of today's Express front page

Express front page bingo:

Royals– check
Brexit story – check
Old people disease “cure” – check
Attempted con over the price of the newspaper – check
Weather story – FAIL

So close to a full house today

PostRe: Brexit by **Lagamorph** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:39 am

Moggy wrote:
Lagamorph wrote:I love the top of today's Express front page

Express front page bingo:

Royals– check
Brexit story – check
Old people disease “cure” – check
Attempted con over the price of the newspaper – check
Weather story – FAIL

So close to a full house today

It does state the weather in tiny red text under the word Express if that counts.

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:41 am

Lagamorph wrote:
Moggy wrote:
Lagamorph wrote:I love the top of today's Express front page

Express front page bingo:

Royals– check
Brexit story – check
Old people disease “cure” – check
Attempted con over the price of the newspaper – check
Weather story – FAIL

So close to a full house today

It does state the weather in tiny red text under the word Express if that counts.

No, it needs to be a scare story about snow to count.

PostRe: Brexit by **DML** » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:55 am

Moggy wrote:
Lagamorph wrote:
Government sources say the UK will not be worse off, and its preferred bespoke trade deal option was not analysed

It makes complete sense to spend time and money to analyse all the options that you wouldn’t go for and not bother doing it for the option that do you want.

They can't analyse something that doesn't exist.

Brexit

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