The Football Thread 2020/21: Goals, goals everywhere

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Psychic
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Psychic » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:48 am

I'm surprised so many are predicting a return to the classic big six this season, I don't think Arteta or Mourinho's spells so far have been particularly impressive.

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Winckle
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: All 28 Prem games in September to be televised
by Winckle » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:50 am

Photek wrote:Liverpool 'third' kit isn't too bad if a tad boring.

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That's last season's kit. This is this season's kit:
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Joer » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:30 pm

Psychic wrote:I'm surprised so many are predicting a return to the classic big six this season, I don't think Arteta or Mourinho's spells so far have been particularly impressive.


What makes you say that about Arteta out of curiosity? Two trophies and 9 wins in 13 games against the big six is his record so far which is pretty impressive.

Obviously he’s still very new to it, but I feel like we’re definitely on a big upwards curve now.

Can’t wait for us to lose to Fulham after posting this. :fp:

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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Joer » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:16 pm

Downside to no fans today is the lack of “We are top of the league” chants.

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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Lotus » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:19 pm

I think top four will be:

1. Man City
2. Liverpool
3. Man U
4. Chelsea

Bottom three:

18. West Ham
19. West Brom
20. Fulham

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Psychic
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Psychic » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:42 pm

Joer wrote:
Psychic wrote:I'm surprised so many are predicting a return to the classic big six this season, I don't think Arteta or Mourinho's spells so far have been particularly impressive.


What makes you say that about Arteta out of curiosity? Two trophies and 9 wins in 13 games against the big six is his record so far which is pretty impressive.

Obviously he’s still very new to it, but I feel like we’re definitely on a big upwards curve now.

Can’t wait for us to lose to Fulham after posting this. :fp:

When I saw Arsenal with him as coach, I've not thought the performances were a particularly big step forward. The thing that stood out to me mostly was there still seemed to be the same issues in terms of allowing opposition too many chances, which is backed up by the stats too.

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That being said, it is still early days and he has been working with another managers players in his first job, so anything could happen. I'm just not expecting a big improvement quickly, as things stand.

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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Jose Loves Watching Telly
by Drumstick » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:44 pm

Lotus wrote:I don't think I've ever met anyone in real life who goes by the name 'Matty', yet it seems that almost every footballer who's name is Matthew has to be called Matty. Why is this? What's wrong with Matt?

Anyway, that's been prompted by Villa finally making a signing, in the form of Matty Cash. Seems like we're actively seeking out players with awful hairstyles, as we were interested in Cantwell at some point as well. We already have Grealish, Mings, and Douglas Luiz. We should probably go after Aubameyang and Guendouzi as well.

Just so you know, Matty Smith has scored for Swindon and Matty Godden has knocked one in for Bristol City.

One man should not have this much power in this game. Luckily I'm not an ordinary man.
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Drumstick » Sat Sep 12, 2020 5:36 pm

Leeds :lol:

One man should not have this much power in this game. Luckily I'm not an ordinary man.
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Cuttooth
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Cuttooth » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:02 pm

Bit of a daft match this one.

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Superking
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Superking » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:04 pm

This game has been mental :lol:

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Corazon de Leon
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Corazon de Leon » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:04 pm

Love games like this. Goals everywhere!

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BOR
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by BOR » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:05 pm

:lol:

Crazy so far.

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Parksey
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Parksey » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:12 pm

Can you really use the "Expected Goals For/Against" stat and believe it makes a convincing case for anything? It's just so washy and insubstantial.

Yeah, I know that sometimes teams can ride their luck and not conceded due to missed chances or the attacking absolutely fluffing their lines. Surely you can show this in other ways than the tepid "Expected Goals" stats.

I remaining unconvinced that Arteta has turned Arsenal round in any real, long-term sense yet and that they still are more than capable of a patented Arsenal wobble (see the defeat to Villa which kept them up, at the end of last season).

But to have a graphic showing Goals Conceded *and* Expected Goals just strikes me as an American-style desire for stats for the sake of stats. What's it showing? Goals Conceded and Expected Goals Against. So both goals actually scored against Arsenal and goals that weren't scored against Arsenal somehow get held up against the manager?

It's baffling. Use possession, shots on target, saves or whatever you want, but make it sometnojy that aftisltl *happened*. "Expected" goals, either for or against, is just tepid bum-guff of the highest order. strawberry float it straight into space.

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Photek
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Photek » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:21 pm

This match is bonkers. Van Dijk needs to keep things simple.

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sawyerpip
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by sawyerpip » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:24 pm

Like all statistics the xG measurements can be used incorrectly but it's certainly not meaningless data.

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Hypes
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Hypes » Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:25 pm

Bonkers lads but 3pts will do

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Drumstick
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Drumstick » Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:29 pm

Thank strawberry float for that.

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Psychic
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Psychic » Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:10 pm

Parksey wrote:Can you really use the "Expected Goals For/Against" stat and believe it makes a convincing case for anything? It's just so washy and insubstantial.

Yeah, I know that sometimes teams can ride their luck and not conceded due to missed chances or the attacking absolutely fluffing their lines. Surely you can show this in other ways than the tepid "Expected Goals" stats.

I remaining unconvinced that Arteta has turned Arsenal round in any real, long-term sense yet and that they still are more than capable of a patented Arsenal wobble (see the defeat to Villa which kept them up, at the end of last season).

But to have a graphic showing Goals Conceded *and* Expected Goals just strikes me as an American-style desire for stats for the sake of stats. What's it showing? Goals Conceded and Expected Goals Against. So both goals actually scored against Arsenal and goals that weren't scored against Arsenal somehow get held up against the manager?

It's baffling. Use possession, shots on target, saves or whatever you want, but make it sometnojy that aftisltl *happened*. "Expected" goals, either for or against, is just tepid bum-guff of the highest order. strawberry float it straight into space.

Expected goals for one off games are fun but flawed analysis, but for longer term trends they have real value. In the example you disagree with, it's not merely a case of "goals not scored against Arsenal" being used as a negative, the issue is that the chances are still being created, more so than previously under Ljungberg/Emery. This is because in the long run, results generally fall back in line with performances.

Leicester last season are a good example of this, managing to outshoot their expected goals by roughly 11 and with opponents finishing in a way that left the foxes expected goals against over 7 goals better than the expectations. While over the season they still reminded up in both categories, they underperformed both in the second half of the season, notably being 5.2 goals worse off offensively. The same was true of Jamie Vardy as an individual, who also suffered a drop off in the latter half after performing above expectations.

I'm a bit baffled you're annoyed by something which at the heart of it is just an attempt to try and understand the game more.

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Spindash
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Spindash » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:18 am

Arsenal wearing blue against Fulham... arthur_fist.jpg

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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Dowbocop » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:55 am

Spindash wrote:Arsenal wearing blue against Fulham... arthur_fist.jpg

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Not without precedent I'm afraid ;)

After googling those images I'm gonna get Fulham results piped to my phone for the next fortnight aren't I? :fp:


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