The Football Thread 2020/21: Levy Bales Out Jose?

Fed up talking videogames? Why?
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Dowbocop
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back tomorrow!
by Dowbocop » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:00 am

Psychic wrote:
Parksey wrote:Can you really use the "Expected Goals For/Against" stat and believe it makes a convincing case for anything? It's just so washy and insubstantial.

Yeah, I know that sometimes teams can ride their luck and not conceded due to missed chances or the attacking absolutely fluffing their lines. Surely you can show this in other ways than the tepid "Expected Goals" stats.

I remaining unconvinced that Arteta has turned Arsenal round in any real, long-term sense yet and that they still are more than capable of a patented Arsenal wobble (see the defeat to Villa which kept them up, at the end of last season).

But to have a graphic showing Goals Conceded *and* Expected Goals just strikes me as an American-style desire for stats for the sake of stats. What's it showing? Goals Conceded and Expected Goals Against. So both goals actually scored against Arsenal and goals that weren't scored against Arsenal somehow get held up against the manager?

It's baffling. Use possession, shots on target, saves or whatever you want, but make it sometnojy that aftisltl *happened*. "Expected" goals, either for or against, is just tepid bum-guff of the highest order. strawberry float it straight into space.

Expected goals for one off games are fun but flawed analysis, but for longer term trends they have real value. In the example you disagree with, it's not merely a case of "goals not scored against Arsenal" being used as a negative, the issue is that the chances are still being created, more so than previously under Ljungberg/Emery. This is because in the long run, results generally fall back in line with performances.

Leicester last season are a good example of this, managing to outshoot their expected goals by roughly 11 and with opponents finishing in a way that left the foxes expected goals against over 7 goals better than the expectations. While over the season they still reminded up in both categories, they underperformed both in the second half of the season, notably being 5.2 goals worse off offensively. The same was true of Jamie Vardy as an individual, who also suffered a drop off in the latter half after performing above expectations.

I'm a bit baffled you're annoyed by something which at the heart of it is just an attempt to try and understand the game more.

It's a bit like incident and near miss reporting in any other business. It attempts to point out areas of risk so a team can proactively mitigate them rather than waiting for the gooseberry fool to hit the fan.

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Cuttooth
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Cuttooth » Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:45 pm

West Brom have a horrible kit this season. They’re certainly not alone though.

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Lotus
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Lotus » Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:51 pm

Cuttooth wrote:West Brom have a horrible kit this season. They’re certainly not alone though.

Brighton and Southampton probably have the worst kits, maybe Sheffield United as well along with West Brom. Very few nice ones this season, and most are very boring.

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Peter Crisp
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Peter Crisp » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:15 pm

I see there are reports that Barcelona have put Salah as their top target but surely Liverpool won't sell him would they?
I assume it would take a world record bid as why would you sell him?

jiggles wrote:Nobody with a VR headset is going to be using it regularly this time next year, let alone in 4 years time.


Posted 16th March 2016. Let's see.
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Saint of Killers
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Saint of Killers » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:25 pm

All interest I had in watching the Spurs docu has gone what with a new season having started. Unless C19 played a role in its broadcast date being delayed, I think it was dumb of them to not release it all earlier.

They're over there, by their theremin.
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PuppetBoy
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by PuppetBoy » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:00 pm


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Oblomov Boblomov
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Oblomov Boblomov » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:18 pm

PuppetBoy wrote:

Would you smash it? :datass:

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Spindash
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Spindash » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:00 pm

If an assistant referee doesn't even put his flag up when a player is three yards offside near the halfway line, what is the point of him being there?

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GrinWithoutaKat
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by GrinWithoutaKat » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:20 pm

Spindash wrote:If an assistant referee doesn't even put his flag up when a player is three yards offside near the halfway line, what is the point of him being there?


He'll put the flag up when the move is finished I believe. To prevent the game being stopped due to an incorrect offside call.

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Ste
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Ste » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:24 pm

I'm very happy right now.

TonyDA
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by TonyDA » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:31 pm

As a Spurs fan, we’ll be fine and have nothing to worry about as we have a serial winner in charge. I know this as I’m six episodes into an Amazon documentary about the club and Tom Hardy & Daniel Levy keep telling me Jose is a serial winner.....

:fp: :fp:

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Corazon de Leon
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Corazon de Leon » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:43 pm

I actually think that has improved the game, means that there is less likelihood of a dodgy offside call.

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Spindash
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Spindash » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:01 pm

Five sent off in injury time in PSG v Marseille, reminds you why you watch football.

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Cuttooth
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Cuttooth » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:22 pm

Spindash wrote:Five sent off in injury time in PSG v Marseille

Enid Blyton does it again.

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Drumstick
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Drumstick » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:25 pm

PSG :lol:

Neymar :lol: :lol: :lol:

One man should not have this much power in this game. Luckily I'm not an ordinary man.
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PatSharpsMullet
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by PatSharpsMullet » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:31 pm

Cuttooth wrote:
Spindash wrote:Five sent off in injury time in PSG v Marseille

Enid Blyton does it again.

:lol:

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pjbetman
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by pjbetman » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:05 pm

Peter Crisp wrote:I see there are reports that Barcelona have put Salah as their top target but surely Liverpool won't sell him would they?
I assume it would take a world record bid as why would you sell him?


They may sell him (or any high priced player) because match day revenue (and sky?) is down massively. Idealistically, we wouldnt want to sell arguably our best ever striker, and certainly our best now.

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Peter Crisp
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Peter Crisp » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:23 pm

pjbetman wrote:
Peter Crisp wrote:I see there are reports that Barcelona have put Salah as their top target but surely Liverpool won't sell him would they?
I assume it would take a world record bid as why would you sell him?


They may sell him (or any high priced player) because match day revenue (and sky?) is down massively. Idealistically, we wouldnt want to sell arguably our best ever striker, and certainly our best now.


I also don't see who they could replace him with that wouldn't also cost a fortune so it's not live they'd be making that much money in the end.
I'm not a Liverpool fan but it would seem an odd move to sell a player who has a good chance of being top scorer in the league.

jiggles wrote:Nobody with a VR headset is going to be using it regularly this time next year, let alone in 4 years time.


Posted 16th March 2016. Let's see.
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Clarkman
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Clarkman » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:28 pm

Cuttooth wrote:
Spindash wrote:Five sent off in injury time in PSG v Marseille

Enid Blyton does it again.


:lol: excellent

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Photek
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PostRe: The Football Thread 2020/21: Premier League is back!
by Photek » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:39 pm

pjbetman wrote:
Peter Crisp wrote:I see there are reports that Barcelona have put Salah as their top target but surely Liverpool won't sell him would they?
I assume it would take a world record bid as why would you sell him?


They may sell him


No chance, unless it’s like €300m

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