Parksey wrote:Can you really use the "Expected Goals For/Against" stat and believe it makes a convincing case for anything? It's just so washy and insubstantial.
Yeah, I know that sometimes teams can ride their luck and not conceded due to missed chances or the attacking absolutely fluffing their lines. Surely you can show this in other ways than the tepid "Expected Goals" stats.
I remaining unconvinced that Arteta has turned Arsenal round in any real, long-term sense yet and that they still are more than capable of a patented Arsenal wobble (see the defeat to Villa which kept them up, at the end of last season).
But to have a graphic showing Goals Conceded *and* Expected Goals just strikes me as an American-style desire for stats for the sake of stats. What's it showing? Goals Conceded and Expected Goals Against. So both goals actually scored against Arsenal and goals that weren't scored against Arsenal somehow get held up against the manager?
It's baffling. Use possession, shots on target, saves or whatever you want, but make it sometnojy that aftisltl *happened*. "Expected" goals, either for or against, is just tepid bum-guff of the highest order. strawberry float it straight into space.
Expected goals for one off games are fun but flawed analysis, but for longer term trends they have real value. In the example you disagree with, it's not merely a case of "goals not scored against Arsenal" being used as a negative, the issue is that the chances are still being created, more so than previously under Ljungberg/Emery. This is because in the long run, results generally fall back in line with performances.
Leicester last season are a good example of this, managing to outshoot their expected goals by roughly 11 and with opponents finishing in a way that left the foxes expected goals against over 7 goals better than the expectations. While over the season they still reminded up in both categories, they underperformed both in the second half of the season, notably being 5.2 goals worse off offensively. The same was true of Jamie Vardy as an individual, who also suffered a drop off in the latter half after performing above expectations.
I'm a bit baffled you're annoyed by something which at the heart of it is just an attempt to try and understand the game more.