UK General Election, 12th December 2019 | Forum poll | Opinion polling | Manifestos & campaigns | Tactical voting

[Cuttooth]

No you just get £201 back after staking £200.

[That's not a growth]

Bookies tend to base their odds on risk, and a lot of that is down to what people are willing to bet on (which means how much they're going to lose for each scenario). While this can be driven by how likely something is, as the end of the day they only care about profit, so weigh the betting enough to convince people to better on outcomes other than the Tories. But if they offer large odds for the other parties the Tories odds need to shrink proportionally otherwise it would be possible to place a bet on all outcomes and win with any result - which is essentially the situation the bookies want to be in.

[more heat than light]

So those are payouts rather than odds? It's not that the tories have a 20000% chance of victory.

Yeah, that's just the amounts that the bookies would be willing to payout should you place a bet. Obviously this gives an indication, as they pay out more for things they deem to be less likely.

You always get your stake back on winning bets, so you would win £1 plus your stake of £200.

[BID0]

twitter.com/annamcmorrin/status/1204784132582191104

twitter.com/brendandevlin50/status/1204702122782199808

[That]

How do odds work?

You've already had a couple of good answers but I wanted to say that in maths, odds are actually supposed to be a way of representing the probability. Mathematical odds of 1:200 indicate the event happens 200 times in every 201, whereas odds of 40:1 indicate the event happens 1 time in every 41.

In betting, odds do not precisely represent probabilities. They are based on the bookies' assessment of the probability of the event, but also adjusted to entice people to take out bets and ensure there is an overall profit. Betting odds do however represent payout, so if you bet £10 on 40:1 odds, you would get £400 payout plus your original £10 if you won the bet.

[Xeno]

I received some SDP flyers. I wouldn't even wipe my arse with them, they would probably try to hold a referendum to seperate my cheeks.

[Rocsteady]

twitter.com/OborneTweets/status/1204834654299344907

It's a very good article. I used to read Oborne when he wrote for the DM, impressed by his turnaround since then.

[Knoyleo]

Thanks to all for the odds answers. It's a good thing I don't bet.

[captain red dog]

Laura K has been absolutely appalling this election season. I really wouldn't be surprised to see her moved aside once this is over. She strikes me as a TV presenter larping as a journalist. Which would explain all the journalistic mistakes she seems to make even as the BBC political editor.

[OrangeRKN]

twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1204841036503289862

Literally strawberry float off

[Cuttooth]

twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204870235058319361

twitter.com/LabourMush/status/1204870624591646728

This might be the Remain Alliance one though, which is apparently a bit flawed.

[Memento Mori]

Today's episode of Politics Live has been pulled from iPlayer:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000c62v

That's where Laura K was talking about the postal vote...

The Guardian reported Dominic Raab doing the same thing a few days ago.

[Tomous]

twitter.com/annamcmorrin/status/1204784132582191104

One of my friends in Cardiff who voted Lib Dem last time as been really unsure who to vote for this election and today said he was going to go for Labour because of this.

[Cuttooth]

One of my votes in Cardiff

User reported for electoral fraud.

[Tomous]

Opps

Plaid Cymru leader, Adam Price, has today published a new draft law which would make lying by politicians a criminal offence.

Plaid Cymru has said they would seek to introduce a form of the law in the next Parliament.

Called the Elected Representatives (Prohibition of Deception) Bill, the legislation would see elected politicians in the European, Westminster and devolved parliaments face criminal charges if they knowingly mislead the public.

Pointing to the collapsing trust in the leaders of Labour and Tory parties, Mr Price said that this would be a way to restore faith in an age of “fake news, fake views and fake figures”. He also pointed to the fact the Trade Descriptions Act, passed in 1968, has been in place for over 50 years to stop companies misleading consumers.

The proposed legislation is an update of the 2007 Private Members’ Bill introduced by Mr Price in the House of Commons.

Adam Price said:

“People have lost faith in our politics, and we have a duty to restore it before it’s too late. It’s depressing that it has come to this, but if we need a law to stop politicians from lying then that is what should be in place.

“I proposed a similar draft law over ten years ago, when the lies that lead to the dreadful Iraq war were surfacing. Our politics, once again, faces a crisis of confidence thanks to the fake news, fake views and fake figures that have been peddled, particularly by the main two Westminster parties.

“Over half a century ago we made it illegal for companies to lie to us with the Trade Descriptions Act. Sadly, it looks like now we need the same principle to apply to politicians.

“Honesty is the most important currency in politics. We have to restore it, before we bankrupt our whole society.”

[KK]

Sky News are currently putting party leaders made out of cardboard in a bauble on a mini Christmas tree. Live.

“The remarkable Christmas Tree of Truth” they’re calling it. Boris and Corbyn are tied in the middle of the tree. Farage is at the bottom.

They’ve now all said they’re off to the pub. Apart from Jon Craig.

(No, I’m not making this up)

[Tomous]

A mate of mine complained to the BBC about LK's reporting of "the punch" and they said:

As the BBC's Political Editor, a significant part of Laura Kuenssberg's role is to keep our audience up to date with political events and stories as they happen. A key tool for doing this is social media, which allows her to report on breaking stories quickly. As is common journalistic practice, Laura gains information from off the record sources, as was the case in this instance

How can they try to spin that as common journalistic practice? She clearly had a call from the Tory party and didn't cross verify it with anyone.

[That]

This might be the Remain Alliance one though, which is apparently a bit flawed.

It's not. It's ComRes for the Telegraph.

twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1204868699808784387

twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1204868707132026881

[That]

Polls don't mean anything, but I thought this was interesting.

In 2017, the last ICM poll showed Tory 46%, Labour 34%. The result (GB only) was Tory 44%, Labour 41%.

Now, the last ICM poll shows Tory 42%, Labour 36%.

Dont do this to me karl

In 2017, the last ComRes poll showed Tory 44%, Labour 34%.

Now, the last ComRes poll shows Tory 41%, Labour 36%.

Again, polls don't mean anything, but it's interesting...

[Victor Mildew]

My polling card is ready for my first voting experience.

strawberry float the conservative party.