US Election 2020 - WE HAVE A WINNER - Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President!!

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Monkey Man
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PostUS Election 2020 - WE HAVE A WINNER - Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President!!
by Monkey Man » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:12 am



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When

Tuesday November 3rd 2020, the 1st polls close at midnight tonight UK time. The new president is officially sworn into office on 20 January 2021.

Presidential Candidates

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Democrat Joe Biden and Kamala Harris

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Republican (Incumbent) Donald Trump and Mike Pence

Details of the election -

How is the winner decided?

Both candidates compete to win electoral college votes.

Each state gets a certain number of electoral college votes partly based on its population and there are a total of 538 up for grabs, so the winner is the candidate that wins 270 or more.

This means voters decide state-level contests rather than the national one, which is why it’s possible for a candidate to win the most votes nationally - like Hillary Clinton did in 2016 - but still be defeated by the electoral college.

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All but two states have a winner-takes-all rule, so whichever candidate wins the highest number of votes is awarded all of the state’s electoral college votes.

Most states lean heavily towards one party or the other, so the focus is usually on a dozen or so states where either of them could win. These are known as the battleground states.

Is the election just about who is president?

No. All of the attention will be on Trump v Biden, but voters will also be choosing new members of Congress when they fill in their ballots.

Democrats already have control of the House so they will be looking to keep hold of that while also gaining control of the Senate.

If they had a majority in both chambers they would be able to block or delay President Trump’s plans if he were to be re-elected.

All 435 seats in the House are up for election this year, while 33 Senate seats are also up for grabs.

When will we find out the result?

It can take several days for every vote to be counted, but it’s usually pretty clear who the winner is by the early hours of the following morning.

In 2016, Donald Trump took to the stage in New York at about 3am to give his victory speech in front of a crowd of jubilant supporters.

But don’t set your alarm clocks just yet. Officials are already warning that we may have to wait longer - possibly days, even weeks - for the result this year because of the expected surge in postal ballots.

The last time the result wasn’t clear within a few hours was in 2000, when the winner wasn’t confirmed until a Supreme Court ruling was made a month later.


The Results

The first polls to close will did at 7pm EST (12am GMT), and all polling stations closed by 1am ET on November 3 (6am GMT on November 4).

Battleground States (State|Number of Votes|Polls closing time in GMT|Rating| Average Polling numbers from 538|Who won this State) -

Georgia | 16 | Polls close: 12am | Rating in presidential contest: Toss-up | Biden +1.0 | TBA

Nevada | 6 | Biden

Pennsylvania | 20 | Polls close: 1am | Rating in presidential contest: Leans Democratic | Biden +5.1 | Biden

Arizona | 11 | Polls close: 2am | Rating in presidential contest: Leaning Democratic | Biden +3.1 | Biden

Florida | 29 | Polls close: 12am | Rating in presidential contest: Toss-up | Biden +2.2 | Trump.

North Carolina | 15 | Polls close: 12.30am (now delayed to 1.15am) | Rating in presidential contest: Toss-up | Biden +1.9 | TBA

Michigan | 16 | Polls close: 1am | Rating in presidential contest: Leans Democratic | Biden +8.2 | Biden

Texas | 38 | Polls close: 1am | Rating in presidential contest: Leans Republican | Trump +1.1 | Trump

Wisconsin | 10 | Polls close: 2am | Rating in presidential contest: Leans Democratic | Biden +7.9 | Biden

Minnesota | 10 | Polls close: 2am | Rating in presidential contest: Leans Democratic | Biden +9.2 | Biden

Predicted Results

Predict the president 2020: Will Trump or Biden win the US election? You decide - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54286528

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Real Clear Politics National Polling - https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6247.html

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FiveThirtyEight National Polling - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/

Senate

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35 Senate seats are also up for grabs. Republicans currently have a 53-47 Majority, if it ends in a tie the Vice-President will cast their vote. Seven Republican Senators are defending seats classed as toss-ups: in Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Montana two in Georgia. Only one Democratic incumbent, in Alabama, looks especially vulnerable.

FiveThirtyEight Senate Polling - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/

The five Senate races to watch - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54504585
US Senate elections: the key races that will determine power in Washington - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... washington

House

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All of the chamber’s 435 seats are up for Grabs. Democrats currently have a 232-198 majority. Of the 44 races considered competitive, 27 currently have a Republican incumbent, 16 have a Democratic incumbent and one has an independent.

US House elections: Competitive races unlikely to flip majority - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/ ... p-majority

Post-Election

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Last edited by Monkey Man on Sat Nov 07, 2020 5:58 pm, edited 11 times in total.
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Oblomov Boblomov
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Oblomov Boblomov » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:19 am

Oh bloody hell. Here we go.

Prepare to surf that Blue Wave!! :toot:

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Mini E
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Mini E » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:32 am

I'm so nervous about tonight :fp:. If it goes the wrong way, I'm just retreating into my shell and ignoring everything outside my own personal sanctum for the foreseeable future.

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Rocsteady
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Rocsteady » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:33 am

Got money on Trump getting low 40s vote share. Hopefully Biden wipes the floor with him in the EC too.

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Monkey Man
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Monkey Man » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:43 am



2016 was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1, Romney 1. Not sure what happened to the other 3 this time.

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KK
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by KK » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:46 am

Well if the pollsters have got this wrong and it’s not a Biden victory they may as well close up shop.

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Mini E
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Mini E » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:49 am

I have concerns that the first few pages of this thread will be similar to the first few pages of the original Brexit Referendum thread where we were just all so confident that people couldn't be so catastrophically stupid...

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Oblomov Boblomov
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Oblomov Boblomov » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:52 am

Mini E wrote:I have concerns that the first few pages of this thread will be similar to the first few pages of the original Brexit Referendum thread where we were just all so confident that people couldn't be so catastrophically stupid...

I say let's crack on with full-blown optimism.

If we're wrong, at least we have a few hours of joy and excitement.

If we're right, the party keeps going :toot:.

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Corazon de Leon
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Corazon de Leon » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:59 am

KK wrote:Well if the pollsters have got this wrong and it’s not a Biden victory they may as well close up shop.


Populist political elections are extremely difficult to predict and model for, it's not necessarily a failure of the polling model if Trump wins.

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Moggy
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Moggy » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:02 am

Monkey Man wrote:

2016 was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1, Romney 1. Not sure what happened to the other 3 this time.


The American version of Sunderland.

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Dual
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Dual » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:04 am

Good OP.

I'm going to try and stay up until midnight.

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Preezy
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Preezy » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:05 am

Great opening post there, Monkey Man.

Thoughts and prayers to the whole world right now.

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Preezy
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Preezy » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:07 am

Corazon de Leon wrote:
KK wrote:Well if the pollsters have got this wrong and it’s not a Biden victory they may as well close up shop.


Populist political elections are extremely difficult to predict and model for, it's not necessarily a failure of the polling model if Trump wins.

Lies, Cora has been in the pocket of Big Polling for years :roll:

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Jenuall
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Jenuall » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:12 am

Well hot damn! Y'all excited about that there election? :toot:

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DML
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by DML » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:14 am

Just enjoy the fact that today at least the President is pissing his pants.

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Moggy
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Moggy » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:15 am

DML wrote:Just enjoy the fact that today at least the President is pissing his pants.


At his age I would imagine that's been happening for a while.

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Tafdolphin
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Tafdolphin » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:18 am

Please also remember that this isn't the only huge event taking place today


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Corazon de Leon
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Corazon de Leon » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:23 am

Preezy wrote:
Corazon de Leon wrote:
KK wrote:Well if the pollsters have got this wrong and it’s not a Biden victory they may as well close up shop.


Populist political elections are extremely difficult to predict and model for, it's not necessarily a failure of the polling model if Trump wins.

Lies, Cora has been in the pocket of Big Polling for years :roll:


:datass:

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Knoyleo
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Knoyleo » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:25 am

Monkey Man wrote:

2016 was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1, Romney 1. Not sure what happened to the other 3 this time.

Isn't this illegal? Declaring results whilst polls are open?

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Tomous
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PostRe: US Election 2020 - The Race to 270.
by Tomous » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:27 am

DML wrote:Just enjoy the fact that today at least the President is pissing his pants.



Isn't he into that? Allegedly

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