US Politics 2

I’ll tell you what the gap in the polls don’t look too dissimilar to Clinton v Trump. Biden seems a little bit further ahead than Clinton was though so hopefully that cushion is enough and the polls are more accurate this time than in 2016.

Clinton was 4 points ahead with 16% of the electorate undecided, Biden is 10 points ahead with 6% undecided.

Even if Trump's voters are being undercounted in the polls, his path to victory is next to non-existent at this stage. The Supreme Court is his only hope, and if it gets there and they throw it to him, well, that court will have instantly invalidated its existence.

It appears it was the state polls that were well off in 2016. The national one ended at 3-4% and Clinton won the popular vote by 2%. However states like Pennsylvania had her between 5-10% ahead but she lost.

I’m still pretty confident we will see a Biden win though.

Heres a fact for you. Even if we give Trump the hugest swing he had in 2016 (5.6%) that the polls got wrong in his favour in every state....he STILL doesnt have 270.

Thats how wrong the polls have to be. In every state. Only one state was put by that much (I believe Wisconsin) 8n 2016 and nothing else was really close.

This is all presupposing that the GRU in Russia isn't just going to change millions of tallies at a stroke, or launch a Zero Day attack that shuts down voting machines in strategically important counties on election day.

Ugh.

DML wrote:Heres a fact for you. Even if we give Trump the hugest swing he had in 2016 (5.6%) that the polls got wrong in his favour in every state....he STILL doesnt have 270.

Thats how wrong the polls have to be. In every state. Only one state was put by that much (I believe Wisconsin) 8n 2016 and nothing else was really close.

That’s good to know. I think it’s nailed on for Biden.

twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323072051402350592

twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322978858610565120

Alvin Flummux wrote:Clinton was 4 points ahead with 16% of the electorate undecided, Biden is 10 points ahead with 6% undecided.

Even if Trump's voters are being undercounted in the polls, his path to victory is next to non-existent at this stage. The Supreme Court is his only hope, and if it gets there and they throw it to him, well, that court will have instantly invalidated its existence.

Don't jinx it, Jesus!

Return_of_the_STAR wrote:It appears it was the state polls that were well off in 2016. The national one ended at 3-4% and Clinton won the popular vote by 2%. However states like Pennsylvania had her between 5-10% ahead but she lost.

I’m still pretty confident we will see a Biden win though.

A cursory google suggests that at no time did Pennsylvania polling have Clinton at anything more than around 5.5%. By Election Day last time that sat at 3.7%. At the moment Trump needs a much more significant swing than that to take the state.

I’m also very sceptical about Russia’s ability or intention to sabotage vast swathes of the American voting system. It simply wouldn’t be within their interests to get caught doing something like that.

DML wrote:Heres a fact for you. Even if we give Trump the hugest swing he had in 2016 (5.6%) that the polls got wrong in his favour in every state....he STILL doesnt have 270.

Thats how wrong the polls have to be. In every state. Only one state was put by that much (I believe Wisconsin) 8n 2016 and nothing else was really close.

Wait what, a 5.6% error in Trump's favour in every state would see it
probably come down to a very close race in either Pennsylvania or Arizona. I'd even suggest it would make Trump the favourite.

Corazon de Leon wrote:

Return_of_the_STAR wrote:It appears it was the state polls that were well off in 2016. The national one ended at 3-4% and Clinton won the popular vote by 2%. However states like Pennsylvania had her between 5-10% ahead but she lost.

I’m still pretty confident we will see a Biden win though.

A cursory google suggests that at no time did Pennsylvania polling have Clinton at anything more than around 5.5%. By Election Day last time that sat at 3.7%. At the moment Trump needs a much more significant swing than that to take the state.

I’m also very sceptical about Russia’s ability or intention to sabotage vast swathes of the American voting system. It simply wouldn’t be within their interests to get caught doing something like that.

That’s odd, it was in a article I read last night where it specifically mentioned Pennsylvania as an example. I don’t know exact how their polling system works though, do they have multiple different polling companies like we do here?

Return_of_the_STAR wrote:

Corazon de Leon wrote:

Return_of_the_STAR wrote:It appears it was the state polls that were well off in 2016. The national one ended at 3-4% and Clinton won the popular vote by 2%. However states like Pennsylvania had her between 5-10% ahead but she lost.

I’m still pretty confident we will see a Biden win though.

A cursory google suggests that at no time did Pennsylvania polling have Clinton at anything more than around 5.5%. By Election Day last time that sat at 3.7%. At the moment Trump needs a much more significant swing than that to take the state.

I’m also very sceptical about Russia’s ability or intention to sabotage vast swathes of the American voting system. It simply wouldn’t be within their interests to get caught doing something like that.

That’s odd, it was in a article I read last night where it specifically mentioned Pennsylvania as an example. I don’t know exact how their polling system works though, do they have multiple different polling companies like we do here?

Yes there are dozens of often partisan polling companies over there. There are a few more trustworthy sources than others - I believe FiveThirtyEight now ranks them in terms of reliability, bias etc. so you should be able to do a bit of cross-referencing if you're interested!

Corazon de Leon wrote:

Return_of_the_STAR wrote:

Corazon de Leon wrote:

Return_of_the_STAR wrote:It appears it was the state polls that were well off in 2016. The national one ended at 3-4% and Clinton won the popular vote by 2%. However states like Pennsylvania had her between 5-10% ahead but she lost.

I’m still pretty confident we will see a Biden win though.

A cursory google suggests that at no time did Pennsylvania polling have Clinton at anything more than around 5.5%. By Election Day last time that sat at 3.7%. At the moment Trump needs a much more significant swing than that to take the state.

I’m also very sceptical about Russia’s ability or intention to sabotage vast swathes of the American voting system. It simply wouldn’t be within their interests to get caught doing something like that.

That’s odd, it was in a article I read last night where it specifically mentioned Pennsylvania as an example. I don’t know exact how their polling system works though, do they have multiple different polling companies like we do here?

Yes there are dozens of often partisan polling companies over there. There are a few more trustworthy sources than others - I believe FiveThirtyEight now ranks them in terms of reliability, bias etc. so you should be able to do a bit of cross-referencing if you're interested!

Awesome thanks

I'm currently putting together a US Election Day thread which I'll post Tuesday morning. This thread can then be locked & a new one opened later in the week by someone else. Hope that's alright.

Monkey Man wrote:I'm currently putting together a US Election Day thread which I'll post Tuesday morning. This thread can then be locked & a new one opened later in the week by someone else. Hope that's alright.

Stealing my thread?

You should all join me in a glorious display of hope and optimism and celebrate good times come on!

If you still need convincing, you could look at my previous posts, for example:

1. I predicted a glorious victory for Remain with the cancellation of Brexit
2. I predicted a Labour majority at last year's general election

Get on the band wagon – it's time to party!!

Do we know what time (GMT) we will know the result?

Albear wrote:Do we know what time (GMT) we will know the result?

The results won't be final for weeks and because Trump is unlikely to concede there won't be a result on election night. Unless Trump declares himself the winner and then tries to get votes not counted rejected which is possible, likely infact.

Albear wrote:Do we know what time (GMT) we will know the result?

It's quite likely we won't know for days/weeks.

I think usually a winner is known the morning (GMT) after, but I wouldn't bank on it this time.