Trump voids election results/refuses to leave office. Protests break out nationwide. Protesters arrested indefinitely due to pandemic. Rest of constitution torn apart.
The problem is I would have actually said that any previous US President would have been able to handle the responsibility of such an order (yes, even republican presidents) I have no confidence in Trump to be responsible with such power. I can see him cancelling the election if given even the smallest of possibilities to do so and trying to claim anyone who disagrees is somehow antiAmerican and wants the virus to win.
Peter Crisp wrote:The problem is I would have actually said that any previous US President would have been able to handle the responsibility of such an order (yes, even republican presidents) I have no confidence in Trump to be responsible with such power. I can see him cancelling the election if given even the smallest of possibilities to do so and trying to claim anyone who disagrees is somehow antiAmerican and wants the virus to win.
I would be very worried about any US President being able to suspend Habeas Corpus or cancel an election.
Lex-Man wrote:I would be very worried about any US President being able to suspend Habeas Corpus or cancel an election.
I'm not saying it would have been a good thing I just think even Bush would have been a safer pair of hands in that situation than Trump. At least previous Presidents were reasonably stable but Trump is all over the shop.
There is another possibility: That they don't expect to be able to revoke HC, but are using it as an opportunity to shift the Overton Window further to the right.
Meep wrote:US government makes ours look like strawberry floating geniuses.
This is what happens when you have a total lack of worker rights. Many Americans can be fired without cause no matter how long they've worked for a company and they think it's great. To say it's stupid is an understatement and I have a feeling many of them will be wondering how they let things get to that situation.
So much for Trumps fantastic economy. I wonder where all the money from the recent huge tax cut went as surely they should have had enough to keep staff for a few weeks and not instantly crumble?
Is it going too far to think that this will completely change the political landscape of the entire planet for at least a hundred years? A depression of that magnitude will decimate America, both in real-world terms - economically, politically, and their standing among the rest of the world, but also in the way they see themselves. They have long held the belief that they are the greatest country on Earth, founded on the just, moral principles of the Constitution. And to some extent, they are. They have the biggest economy. They have the most powerful army. Their leader is the most powerful man on the planet, and their culture is by far the most dominant.
The blow this will bring will be immense. This will destroy huge segments of the population. Black households make the lowest median household income than any other ethnic group, by quite some degree. They will be the first to go. The white working and middle classes will begin to get antsy and will begin to push down rather than up. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some states start to take the idea of secession seriously (California, definitely. Maybe Texas. I can see New York up through the New England states forming their own block, with support from Canada). Likewise, the idea of the merging of some of the less densely populated state has merit.
Companies will race to move over to the relatively stable EU and Asia markets. Australia doesn't really benefit from this given the memory of the huge fires is still quite fresh. The Middle East tries to woo money their way given the situation with oil prices right now but they don't start seeing much success until they begin liberalising a little. Africa, being the new China, does start seeing some significant investing but as with China over the last 30-40 years, the money doesn't necessarily see the hands of the people. It'll be another 30-40 years until a proper, true middle-class forms across Africa. South and Central America sees a lot of the 'pleasure money' - it pours in, feeding the hedonistic elements of South America culture - drugs and prostitution, mainly. At first, this seems great to the average South American, as the cartels that control the drugs and prostitution throw money at the people. They are simply buying the obedience of the population so that they may consolidate control. South America descends into thinly veiled kingdoms run by warlords and any pretence of the government is a sham. Say goodbye to the Amazon rainforest, it'll be gone within a century. So will the 200 and something native, uncontacted tribes that live there. Killed, or assimilated (if you don't believe me, Bolsonaro's man that heads up the agency in charge of advocating for indigenous tribes spent 10 years as a missionary for a US organisation whose mission statement is literally to spread the gospel to the world's uncontacted people). The 'business money' avoids South America though, entirely because of the drugs and prostitution. The UK could stand to gain here, positioning itself as very tax-friendly and just off the coast of the EU. The British public will, however, see the futility in austerity measures that choke the very systems we realise we're so dependent on now (healthcare, transport, education) and things move progressively to the left, even the Conservative party (that might be wishful thinking).
Trump's administration will begin to crack down 'in order to maintain order'. US troops will be withdrawn from wherever else they are in the world (if they haven't already) and are placed in the big cities first. The fact that US troops have all been withdrawn leaves a bit of a vacuum throughout the rest of the world. The EU bunkers down and heavily consolidates; Eastern Europe is terrified that Russia will come knocking again and the rest of Europe know that if you give them an inch, they'll take a mile (having been taught that lesson a few times the last century). Pro-EU sentiment goes up on the continent and the UK is sort of left out in the cold, despite backing Europe in a confrontation with Russia. Wouldn't be surprised if we've rejoined some form of the EU within my lifetime. The Middle East goes haywire, with Israel acting like a rabid dog. Without the US backing them, they lose confidence. strawberry float knows what happens from that point, maybe an absence of US interference will help things, maybe some other force will swoop in to replace the US.
By this point, anyone with any money to their name is getting out of the country. Businessmen, Hollywood stars, old-money families, the comfortable middle class. All gone - Hollywood is now a ghost town. Everyone else is left twiddling their thumbs as unemployment skyrockets again from 30% to more than 70%. Entire cities have just descended into madness, with almost no management. Trump will probably win in November but if he does, he'll eventually be removed from office anyway and Pence takes over. From here, I don't really know what to expect. Maybe some sort of quasi-theocratic state, maybe much smaller than the current United States (Canada would welcome Alaska at this point, California may have already gotten out, and Texas would probably need to given the huge influx of refugees from the southern states to the east.
Millions, maybe into the tens of millions, will die from not just the disease (those numbers will be small fry, eventually), but from the breakdown in law and order, other diseases, and famine. This will be the biggest collapse of an empire (because that's what they are) in history, dwarfing the collapse of the Roman and British. And it only took 250ish years! It will be talked about and discussed in both pop culture and academics for centuries to come.
To summarise, I think you should short the US dollar and US government bonds.
Peter Crisp wrote:So much for Trumps fantastic economy. I wonder where all the money from the recent huge tax cut went as surely they should have had enough to keep staff for a few weeks and not instantly crumble?
Probably mostly spent buying their own shares to boost the price and hit bonus metrics.
Last edited by Meep on Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The US is certainly going to have to take a long hard look at military funding. There's no way they can keep it at current levels if the unemployment level is anything even close to the prediction.
Peter Crisp wrote:Maybe now the US will seriously look at maybe taxing the rich now that it's so obvious that trickle down has failed so utterly.
They never will. It's ingrained within them. Why is this extra 'strawberry float you' to the working class going to be any different to all the other 'strawberry float you's?
