US Politics 3

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Moggy
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Moggy » Wed Jul 20, 2022 8:26 am

Preezy wrote:Trying to put a positive spin on that, I think it's sort of encouraging that 47 Republicans voted in favour of something that traditionally conservative America would massively disapprove of.


But it shows exactly what the Republicans will be going after when/if they regain control of the House and presidency.

Without putting these things into law, the Supreme Court are going to destroy lives.

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Oblomov Boblomov
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Oblomov Boblomov » Wed Jul 20, 2022 8:31 am

Tomous wrote:
Oblomov Boblomov wrote:Does that still pass or did it need like a super-duper majority?


It needs to pass in the senate where it needs 10 Republican votes so its unlikely to pass.


Ah, of course. Now that they're all turbocharged on theocracy I think we can place the likelihood somewhere around the Kola Superdeep Borehole.

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Cuttooth
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Cuttooth » Wed Jul 20, 2022 8:51 am

Preezy wrote:Trying to put a positive spin on that, I think it's sort of encouraging that 47 Republicans voted in favour of something that traditionally conservative America would massively disapprove of.

Way more than 22% of Republican voters support equal marriage now so it's arguable that the GOP is still way out of step with anyone but the most far right voters.

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Grumpy David
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Grumpy David » Fri Jul 22, 2022 4:37 pm

https://archive.ph/3HyXO

The semiconductor chip pendulum is slowly swinging west

The US had fallen behind Asian production levels but that may be about to change

In recent decades, investors have operated on the basis that the global balance of power is shaped by the source — or “prize”, as the writer Daniel Yergin puts it(opens a new window) — of oil.

Now, however, a new tagline is percolating: computer chips are the 21st century strategic version of the fossil fuel. Or that, at least, is the message being promoted by Pat Gelsinger, chief executive officer of Intel, America’s biggest chipmaker.

“[The location of] oil has defined geopolitics in the past five decades. But fabs [ie fabrication factories for chips] will shape the next five — this is the new geopolitics,” he recently told a conference in Aspen(opens a new window), lamenting that while America initially created the semiconductor industry, 80 per cent of production currently sits in Asia. Or as Rob Portman, a Republican senator from Ohio echoed at the same event: “Thirty years ago 37 per cent of semiconductors in the world were made in the US . . . today it’s 12 per cent and is going the wrong way.”

Is this just special pleading? Certainly in part. Intel has lost ground to its Asian rivals in recent years and has been furiously lobbying Congress to provide $52bn of funding to back a bill passed last year to boost American-made chip production.

And this week the lobbying paid off: a key Senate committee finally agreed to fund the $52bn plan(opens a new window). This will be signed by President Joe Biden “before the August recess”, Mark Warner, the Democrat senator who chairs the Senate intelligence committee, tells me.

This is still only a “skinny chips” bill, as Warner says; in other words, it omits parts of the original legislation. But skinny or not, dollars will flow. Intel, for example, is about to build two $10bn fabs in Senator Portman’s district of Ohio, and expects to receive a $3bn subsidy for each. Hence why Gelsinger — and Portman — are promoting the chips-are-the-new-oil mantra.

But leaving aside the issues of obvious self-interest, the reality is that this new credo is grounded in fact. That is partly because chips are playing an increasingly crucial role in military hardware. One issue that has hobbled Russia’s ability to replenish its battlefield equipment in recent months, say, is that it has been cut off from chip supply chains by western sanctions. Moreover chips — like oil — are increasingly shaping inflation trends: in recent decades, western disinflation was supported by declines in the cost of Asian-produced chips and cheap manufacturing. But now that dynamic has gone into reverse due to supply chain disruptions.

Then there is growth. Since almost every modern industrial sector needs a reliable supply of chips, the 2021 supply chain disruptions alone are calculated to have reduced American gross domestic product by $240bn that year, Portman says.
And John Cornyn, a Republican senator from Texas, reckons(opens a new window) that if America ever lost access to supplies of advanced semiconductor chips in the future “GDP could shrink by 3.2 per cent and we could lose 2.4mn jobs” in a single year. “Over three years, more than $2tn US GDP could be lost, with over 5mn people losing their jobs,” he adds.

Hence the growing alarm in Congress — and America’s C-suite — about the fact that almost all advanced chip production is currently located in Taiwan, which is being threatened by a newly assertive China. Or as Warner says: “The vulnerability of Taiwan has been driven home by the invasion of Ukraine.”

This also explains Warner’s frustration that Europe is already racing ahead to subsidise chip production, essentially copying the bill that the US adopted (but did not fund) last year. Intel, for example, has already received commitments of €6.8bn in subsidies from Germany. “When Brussels and Germany and France move faster than Americans we know we have got problems,” Warner says. Or as Gelsinger adds: “This complex 27-member socialist union . . . is now ahead of the US by a solid six months.”

So will the (belated) funding of the Chips Act become the computing equivalent of America’s shale industry — namely a trigger for more self-sufficiency? Not quickly or easily. It takes at least two years to start a fab. And America lacks the talent base and infrastructure that has enabled Taiwan to dominate. As a result, Morris Chang, founder of Taiwan’s dominant TSMC group, says that production in its US TSMC factories costs 50 per cent more (opens a new window)than in Taiwan.

Moreover, while $52bn sounds a big number, China is estimated to be giving three times that — or more — in support to its own sector. And the Chips Act caps subsidies at $3bn per plant (which typically cost around $10bn), but other countries provide up to 50 per cent in help, Gelsinger says. This leaves Warner fretting about a looming “race to the bottom on chip subsidies” between Europe and America — or Asia.

Yet, even if it will be tough to shift the supply chain pattern, nobody should doubt that the pendulum is swinging. Gelsinger is now promoting a target whereby America produces around 30 per cent of all chips in the future and Europe some 20 per cent (compared, he says, with the current 12 and 8 per cent levels, respectively). Under this vision, which is backed by key senators, Asia would account for just 50 per cent of all chip production.

This bold reform may not be achievable; or not anytime soon. But the message for investors is clear: the geopolitical chip wars could soon turn even more interesting. And they should count themselves lucky that western companies do not depend on Russia for chips.


Semiconductors are too strategically important to have "just in time" supply chains since they can also be described as single point of failure supply chains. Good to see policies in place to encourage manufacturers to geographically diversify this particular supply chain.

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Alvin Flummux
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Alvin Flummux » Sat Jul 23, 2022 4:05 am

Too little, too late, I fear. China seems likely to attack Taiwan within the next decade, before its demographic tipping point makes the taking of the island a more remote prospect, and if/when it does, the west will still be reliant on it.

Whoever controls Taiwan will dominate the tech race and so much more this century.

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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Cuttooth » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:38 pm

Manchin actually supporting the White House's tax and climate plans sure did come out of nowhere. Looking forward to the new way this all collapses.

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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Memento Mori » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:43 pm

Cuttooth wrote:Manchin actually supporting the White House's tax and climate plans sure did come out of nowhere. Looking forward to the new way this all collapses.

It was apparently Manchin and Schumer strawberry floating over Mitch McConnell to get him to pass the adminstration's semiconductor bill. Manchin was saying there was no reconciliation agreement (which can be passed with a majority only) right until the semiconductor bill passed.

twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1552408024844738560


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Cuttooth
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Cuttooth » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:49 pm

Damn it only took 20+ years but the Democrats might be finally learning!

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Moggy
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Moggy » Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:16 pm

twitter.com/anthony/status/1552443824202727424



I hear they are going to call it Change USA and Chuka Umunna is going to join.

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RetroCora
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by RetroCora » Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:22 pm

:lol:

I dunno how I feel about Andrew Yang. He seems to be a force for good in general, but he’s been a bit flip-floppy on important issues. If it puts some pressure on the Democrats to reform and strike out to the left a bit then so much the better.

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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Moggy » Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:27 pm

RetroCora wrote::lol:

I dunno how I feel about Andrew Yang. He seems to be a force for good in general, but he’s been a bit flip-floppy on important issues. If it puts some pressure on the Democrats to reform and strike out to the left a bit then so much the better.


It's a shame that a third party can't break through in the US (or indeed here!), but it's just not going to work. I can't see any new party ("Forward" :lol: ) ever breaking through. Anything even slightly to the left of the Republicans* will not attract any GOP voters. And anything else just eats up Democrat votes, making it easier for the crazy party.

*It'd be good if Trump set up his own party though, that'd tempt a lot of MAGA types.

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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Moggy » Mon Aug 01, 2022 6:11 pm

twitter.com/rollingstone/status/1554107096852987905



America :lol:

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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Lex-Man » Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:16 pm

Moggy wrote:

twitter.com/rollingstone/status/1554107096852987905



America :lol:


That should be an Onion article.

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Alvin Flummux
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Alvin Flummux » Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:29 pm

Yang's party is apparently being funded by far right super PACs and is probably intended as a Democratic vote splitter.

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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Return_of_the_STAR » Tue Aug 02, 2022 5:05 pm

I’m so glad Pelosi has gone ahead with the visit to Taiwan. strawberry float the CCP.

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Grumpy David
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Grumpy David » Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:19 pm

Return_of_the_STAR wrote:I’m so glad Pelosi has gone ahead with the visit to Taiwan. strawberry float the CCP.


Agreed, delighted that there was no kotowing to the CCP.

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more heat than light
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by more heat than light » Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:31 am

We gonna talk about Kansas?

twitter.com/nprpolitics/status/1554656491038248961



And this is a Republican stronghold. :lol: :toot:

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Drumstick
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Drumstick » Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:34 am

Mad. Didn't know such a vote was ongoing.

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Moggy
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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Moggy » Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:46 pm

twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1554864067508060160



Is Giuliani his lawyer? :lol:

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PostRe: US Politics 3
by Moggy » Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:49 pm

twitter.com/klasfeldreports/status/1554855733145079810



strawberry floating hell :lol:


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