Lex-Man wrote:So it was about 47.74% of the popular vote and 43% of the electoral college.
The percentages don't quite fall that way, as (believe it or not) there are actually other contenders who receive some of the votes (around three million last time!). But it is worth looking at Trump's records:
2016
46.1% of the popular vote
56.9% of the EC vote (I'm including 'faithless electors')
2020
46.8% of the popular vote
43.1% of the EC vote
He actually increased his vote share in 2020 but suffered a whopping 13.8pp swing in the EC?!
Ridiculous stats that make it difficult to predict what needs to happen for the world to dodge the Orange Twat again.
I think the clearest stat we can look at is Biden's popular vote compared with Clinton's (51.3% to 48.2%). Based on the respective EC votes, you could cut that roughly down the middle and say that Biden needs about ~49.8% of the popular vote to win in 2024. But that relies on an assumption the ECs will cascade in a similar pattern to before, which is certainly not guaranteed.