When the Larvae Moult | The infection spreads | Post-mortem p.74

Rekt

Isn't the firing of flares just to indicate the town believing they are in a win state? If we fire them and there are still wolves present then we lose?

Sigma_Tomous wrote:I know it was Day 1 so we weren't really up to speed but I don’t think the no AC/random approach is the way to go at all. We will lose a player randomly later and gain nothing from it.

To progress, we really need people coming forward with lynch platforms so we can force discussion and participation (which helps draw the bad guys out into the open) and also build up voting lists for review down the line. Hopefully we can be a bit more prepared for tomorrow's vote.

Although I voted for random I do agree with Tomous here - we need a clear decision on who any proposed commander wants to lynch in order to get a discussion going and begin to understand behaviour patterns etc. Today was all a bit rushed!

Edit: RIP Tomous...

I have predicted with 3-sigma confidence that there will be a decision to make at around 16:00. Look out for it.

Well that was fun.

I would wager any wronguns will have voted no vote, it was the best way to hide their actual thoughts behind a random wall of random.

I mean we are always going to vote random for the first day or so but it should really be a random of the people's choosing to get a chance of getting information and leads.

This doesn't really help anyone, unless I missed something as I've only skim read the thread so far.

The lack of any actual 'death' confirmation in that post does concern me a little. Drone strikes are usually pretty final but the possibilities in this game are making me suspicious enough not to 100% rule him out of commission till proven otherwise.

He's been shredded, I'd be pretty impressed if he was still alive

Delta_Cribs wrote:He's been shredded, I'd be pretty impressed if he was still alive

There's only charred shredded remains left, could be larvae moult/husk for all we know.

Not gonna be around for whatever happens at four. I’m working tonight so off for a kip.

Sigma_Errkal wrote:I would wager any wronguns will have voted no vote, it was the best way to hide their actual thoughts behind a random wall of random.

That or not voted at all (we should probably refer to voting for no AC as "no ac" so it doesn't get confused with an actual "no vote")

Another possibility is that the wolves would happily elect someone who has declared they are going to kill someone the wolves know to be innocent. Only possible in my case with people backing up my intention to kill Cribs, as no one backed up Nun or Tomous (RIP in tiny pieces)

Whilst it sucks that Tomous was shredded, the result is likely to have been the same whoever was chosen. This way was at least we know that no bad guy took control and pretended to “randomly” pick someone. We always get side tracked tying up loose ends whenever someone doesn’t get a kill.

What does DRONE mean by 3-sigma chance of event?

Sigma_Daz wrote:This way was at least we know that no bad guy took control and pretended to “randomly” pick someone.

The final vote had everyone standing with a stated target, this wasn't the alternative (apart from ironically Tomous, who said he had randomly picked Edd. We had no way of knowing if that was true... although I believe him now!)

I assume when the drone says there is a high probability of something happening, it works like Fi in Skyward Sword (that is, she is never wrong).

Sigma_Daz wrote:Whilst it sucks that Tomous was shredded, the result is likely to have been the same whoever was chosen. This way was at least we know that no bad guy took control and pretended to “randomly” pick someone. We always get side tracked tying up loose ends whenever someone doesn’t get a kill.

Better to have loose ends that are potential leads than nothing to go on at all.

3-Sigma means a high chance of certainty that the event will happen.

Just caught up. What's the logic behind pushing for no commander again - to ensure the first kill was truly random?

Gamma_Dan wrote:Just caught up. What's the logic behind pushing for no commander again - to ensure the first kill was truly random?

I beliave so yes, the idea as I see it was that if we dont pick anyone that the kill is out of our hands and it can't be hijacked by wronguns.

Now odds are they wont try to influence at the point as whats the point, the first few kills are always random and generally innocents, so by taking it out of our hands we lost the chance to gain any information from it however slim the odds of that was.

Gamma_Dan wrote:Just caught up. What's the logic behind pushing for no commander again - to ensure the first kill was truly random?

That was my thoughts.

Standard Mafia game - you normally have to choose to lynch, or there's no kill. (And it's normally randomish). A no kill night is a waste.

Here we didn't need to open up another question to get a kill/info. So why open further ?s. People can look at arguments/actions today just the same basis, without

Orange - Gets A Villager. Was he unlucky, or was he a wolf?
Orange - Gets A Wolf. Was he lucky, or was he it a double bluff and he's TOTALLY THE ALPHA trying to make a bold play.
Just needless convoluted for similar actual results.

We can judge the arguments/action now without that can of worms open.

You also need to take into account the protective nature of the AC role.

Gamma_Hexx wrote:Here we didn't need to open up another question to get a kill/info. So why open further ?s. People can look at arguments/actions today just the same basis, without

Orange - Gets A Villager. Was he unlucky, or was he a wolf?
Orange - Gets A Wolf. Was he lucky, or was he it a double bluff and he's TOTALLY THE ALPHA trying to make a bold play.
Just needless convoluted for similar actual results.

We can judge the arguments/action now without that can of worms open.

Apart from if everyone had agreed with you and just voted for no AC we would have literally nothing to go off. You can only argue we have similar actual results because we actually tried to do something in the first place.

Imagine if everyone had just posted "Leave it to random chance!" At least now we can be suspicious of everyone who voted for no AC

Delta_Orange wrote:
Gamma_Hexx wrote:Here we didn't need to open up another question to get a kill/info. So why open further ?s. People can look at arguments/actions today just the same basis, without

Orange - Gets A Villager. Was he unlucky, or was he a wolf?
Orange - Gets A Wolf. Was he lucky, or was he it a double bluff and he's TOTALLY THE ALPHA trying to make a bold play.
Just needless convoluted for similar actual results.

We can judge the arguments/action now without that can of worms open.

Apart from if everyone had agreed with you and just voted for no AC we would have literally nothing to go off. You can only argue we have similar actual results because we actually tried to do something in the first place.

Imagine if everyone had just posted "Leave it to random chance!" At least now we can be suspicious of everyone who voted for no AC

Exact same problem as if everyone just hid behind ‘Vote Orange for a random’

Edit - Wrong account sorry

Yeah but I'd have been safe :shifty:

When the Larvae Moult | The infection spreads | Post-mortem p.74

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