Will the Switch become the best selling videogame console of all time?

Tomous wrote:

Dowbocop wrote:Catering to that market with a cheaper model (because it would be cheaper to make) would, I think, provide a big bump to sales.

I'm not convinced on this. The Switch isn't ridiculously expensive, I think these people just buy a Switch and don't take it out. Yes there might be a small subset that would only buy it if it was £50-£100 cheaper without handheld but I'm not sure its worth the cost of bringing a new product to market to cater to them.

I suppose the Lite is aimed more at the "shut the kids up" market, where taking £100 off would make more people bite, whereas the hypothetical market I speak of would potentially be more likely to just drop the extra hundred. But I think there will be space for it at some point. They could arguably make it digital only and make the money back from the eShop.

It probably *could* because it’s the only one that covers handheld and home console markets, but I feel like it probably won’t. Just doesn’t look to have that super-casual userbase covered like DS did.

I think it will be close, once they get the Pro model out and they reduce the price of the OG Switch coupled with big games like Breath of the Wild 2 and a new Mario Odyssey that will give the system another big sales boost I think.

I can imagine a big majority of hardcore Switch owners will jump on the Pro model when it lands so that could add another 20mil on its own maybe?

ITSMILNER wrote:I think it will be close, once they get the Pro model out and they reduce the price of the OG Switch coupled with big games like Breath of the Wild 2 and a new Mario Odyssey that will give the system another big sales boost I think.

I can imagine a big majority of hardcore Switch owners will jump on the Pro model when it lands so that could add another 20mil on its own maybe?

This is my logic basically. 30m 2021/2022 and extra 20m from Pro double dippers.

I'm not sure if 20m double dipping is reasonable though.

I doubt it'll beat the PS2, that was a perfect storm for Sony - follow up to a mega-hit and it had the bonus of being the cheapest DVD player on the market.

The Switch is great and will probably end up at number 2 or 3 in the all-time sales list, but all kneel before the mighty monolith \o/

Switch Pro sales can't be included within Switch sales. Its a completely different console; assuming it is happening at all.

Did PS4 Pro sales get included with the PS4 ones? I have no idea if they did or not. Likewise with the One X, but Microsoft haven’t reported any actual figures of hardware sold in a long time now.

Yeah, revisions are always included.

Surely depends on whether a potential switch pro sales are included in the sales figures as an updated product or treated as a separate device. My assumption is if their are switch pro only games then it is surely a new device.

Yeah the waters do tend to get muddied somewhat when these updated consoles come out. Things like the DSi/XL have exclusive games but still get included in the overall sales

Tomous wrote:

ITSMILNER wrote:I think it will be close, once they get the Pro model out and they reduce the price of the OG Switch coupled with big games like Breath of the Wild 2 and a new Mario Odyssey that will give the system another big sales boost I think.

I can imagine a big majority of hardcore Switch owners will jump on the Pro model when it lands so that could add another 20mil on its own maybe?

This is my logic basically. 30m 2021/2022 and extra 20m from Pro double dippers.

I'm not sure if 20m double dipping is reasonable though.

Well it sold roughly 18mil in its first year, I could see a majority of that crowd will be up for a new more powerful Switch right now. Especially if Nintendo market it with a better performing BotW2 and some other big games.

Also, dropping the price of the original could push more families to get a second switch for kids/multiplayer at home

It feels like the main thing stopping Nintendo selling more switches is how fast they're able to make them - even before the chip shortage they couldn't keep up with demand.

Up to 84.59m Switch's sold and Nintendo break the record for biggest operating profit by a console manufacturer in a single year. How did they go from the Wii U to this

Tomous wrote:Up to 84.59m Switch's sold and Nintendo break the record for biggest operating profit by a console manufacturer in a single year. How did they go from the Wii U to this

Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey in the first year. The failure of the WiiU helped because most people hadn’t played the best Mario Kart ever, that and a bunch of other rehashes and they’ve been coasting really. Without the WiiU to rely on I think it still would have been a success but not the runaway smash it’s been. Just from people I know who had a SNES or N64 as kids, it has seemed like a lot of people were just ready to jump back on board again.

I'm leaning towards no but I'm not sure. As much as the switch is incredibly popular, imo it lacks what the DS and PS2 had. PS2 had a DVD player when most people didn't have DVD players and had all the big games of the time. The DS was a portable console that covered the full spectrum of gaming, most crucially casual gaming, and had an easy to understand gimmick that made gaming accessible to normal people.

Similar reasoning brought the PS1 (CD player+games) and Wii (gimmick) to their ~100 million sales but they obviously didn't quite have the same monumental success of the PS2 and DS.

The switch will absolutely surpass 100 million, but I doubt it will surpass the 150 mark. What it does have going for it is the unification of Nintendo home console and portable consoles, the portable consoles selling much better, and with that probably the usage of the Nintendo portable strategy. If they go for a longer cycle punctuated by multiple hardware divisions and consistent first party support then yeah the switch has a decent chance since that would probably avoid the late cycle sales plateau of the Wii; and history showed this strategy worked well on the Gameboy, DS, and to a lesser extent the 3DS.

Captain Kinopio wrote:

Tomous wrote:Up to 84.59m Switch's sold and Nintendo break the record for biggest operating profit by a console manufacturer in a single year. How did they go from the Wii U to this

Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey in the first year. The failure of the WiiU helped because most people hadn’t played the best Mario Kart ever, that and a bunch of other rehashes and they’ve been coasting really. Without the WiiU to rely on I think it still would have been a success but not the runaway smash it’s been. Just from people I know who had a SNES or N64 as kids, it has seemed like a lot of people were just ready to jump back on board again.

I jumped back onboard from the GameCube being my last, so catching up on what I've missed had certainly been part of the appeal for me.

That's not a growth wrote:It feels like the main thing stopping Nintendo selling more switches is how fast they're able to make them - even before the chip shortage they couldn't keep up with demand.

Huh, go figure...

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/05/ ... roduction/

Nintendo warns global chip shortage to hit Switch production

Japan’s Nintendo has said that production of its popular Switch gaming console could be hit by global chip shortages, following a similar warning from rival Sony last week.

At its full-year results on Thursday, Nintendo forecast a 12 percent drop in sales of its flagship Switch in the financial year ending in March 2022, citing potential issues with procuring important components.

Nintendo’s comments contrast with its performance over the past 12 months, when the Kyoto-based company’s fortunes were boosted by coronavirus pandemic restrictions that forced entire nations into lockdown and increased demand for home-based entertainment.

The company said it expects to sell 25.5 million Switch consoles for the fiscal year ending next March. That follows a blockbuster year in which Nintendo sold 28.8 million units and benefited from roaring demand for popular first-party titles such as Animal Crossing: New Horizons and The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild. Nintendo also expects sales of Switch software to fall 18 percent to 190 million units.