WOLF MAFIA

Is it me or has it become very obvious TAP is a wolf

This looks like a grab for power to me. Im hoping all three of you are wolves, because the alternative would be that youve read the game totally wrong, and youve just made a very bad human play.

So Im going to put an alternative. Ive been suggesting Qikz alot of the thread. Hes a low poster similar to the strategy of the rest of the wolves. And TAP because of this late grab
for power, and an argument against me that is without logic. But I suggest lynching Qikz.

Vote for Mayor

3 - TAP (TAP, Pancake, Cora) [Lynch mcjihge2 and Rocsteady]
1 - mcjihge2 (mcjihge2) (Lynch Qikz, TAP)

Votes to lynch

1 - mcjihge2 (TAP)
1 - Qikz (mcjihge2)

Pancake wrote:What do you propose to avoid handing the wolves a win? It better be good!

Not lynching a human. However if all three of you are somehow wolves ( two alphas and a turned half wolf?), then you dont care about that.

Captain Kinopio wrote:Is it me or has it become very obvious TAP is a wolf

Well you were convinced that Mommy was a wolf so forgive me but I think your wolf sensor is broken.

Pancake wrote:I bet it's bloody Kinopio. Or Qikz. Or FatDaz. I'm not sure which of those three would annoy me most.

mcjihge2, it is your duty to be the Alpha.

Seriously, we can change our candidates one of those. Ive already got Qikz.

mcjihge2 wrote:This looks like a grab for power to me. Im hoping all three of you are wolves, because the alternative would be that youve read the game totally wrong, and youve just made a very bad human play.

So Im going to put an alternative. Ive been suggesting Qikz alot of the thread. Hes a low poster similar to the strategy of the rest of the wolves. And TAP because of this late grab
for power, and an argument against me that is without logic. But I suggest lynching Qikz.

Vote for Mayor

3 - TAP (TAP, Pancake, Cora) [Lynch mcjihge2 and Rocsteady]
1 - mcjihge2 (mcjihge2) (Lynch Qikz, TAP)

Votes to lynch

1 - mcjihge2 (TAP)
1 - Qikz (mcjihge2)

Pancake wrote:What do you propose to avoid handing the wolves a win? It better be good!

Not lynching a human. However if all three of you are somehow wolves ( two alphas and a turned half wolf?), then you dont care about that.

Pray tell, in what sense is it a bad play and in what sense is the argument against you illogical? Neither of those things is true. Everyone left has been seered as a human, we are therefore left with very little.

There are logical reasons to believe that Kinopio and FatDaz are not the Alpha, too aggressive in their attempts to lynch Mommy. We know OR must be a witch doctor. That leaves me, you, Cora, TAP, and Qikz.

Everything TAP says about us knowing Roonmastor's role is correct. There is logic to the argument that he would have died much sooner had any of us been wolves. It is by no means concrete but it is certainly logical.

Qikz is more of an unknown entity. He also could be the Alpha but is notorious for being a bad wolf. It feels like the wolf team have played too well for him to be one and he very nearly got himself lynched by trying to argue he was innocent!

If I was a wolf with only a day left until winning by default, what benefit would there be in a "power grab"? Pancake, the noble soul that he is, offered to run for mayor while we discussing this plan earlier (which he can hopefully confirm). If I was a wolf, and my main aim was to simply try and survive, why wouldn't I have taken Pancake up on his offer? Then you'd be threatening to lynch him instead!

Am I making a mistake? Maybe, it's a gamble and I'm not denying that. But a Wolf? Doing nothing, or at the very least letting Pancake run on this platform instead, would have been a far, far better strategy. The reality is much simpler: I believe the three of us are innocent, and if I'm wrong then that embarrassment should be hung on me. I don't want to be wrong though.

I would definitely encourage alternative candidates to come forward though. This is the last day, so we can't afford to be wrong.

The Alchemist Penguin wrote:

The Village
OrangeRKN
FatDaz
Corazon de Leon
Pancake
Qikz
mcjihge2
Rocsteady
The Alchemist Penguin
Captain Kinopio

==========

The Suspects
Corazon de Leon
Pancake
mcjihge2
The Alchemist Penguin

The Witch Doctor
OrangeRKN

The Bad Blood
Rocsteady

Here is the loss of logic, The suspects have arbitrarily ruled down to just 4 people. 3 of whom have asked the question in the first place, therefore closing the decision off completely. The suspects are still all of us. I understand that because as TAP said you three all knew about roonmaster then you are happy with each other. But you cant rule out the other people still in the game - CP, Fatdaz and Qkiz. Even Rocksteady might be lying an could actually be the alpha. It was claimed that he was seered three times as a human. Given the 50/50 claim that would make a 1 in eight chance that he got through that.

Qikz has been very inactive. Usually as a wolf going into meltdowns. But here hes just not posted much at all perhaps saving him from that.
Taking about melt downs - CP and Fatdaz.

I’ve considered that Ian may be lying about his role to be fair - he’s changed his mind a few times about what it is that he actually does, but I’m also bearing in mind that he absolutely didn’t need to volunteer any information at all given that he was seered human by three different seers.

That clue is actually just nonsense

Here's my final breakdown:

OrangeRKN - Witch Doctor
Rocsteady - Half-wolf
Captain Kinopio - Probably a terrible village player?
FatDaz - Definitely a terrible village player
The Alchemist Penguin - Would be mental to not just let the game play out on the last day
Corazon de Leon - Spoken for by TAP's Roon theory
Pancake - Also spoken for by TAP's Roon theory
mcjihge2 - Could be playing a clever ingratiating game but actually does just seem genuinely like he's trying to win for the village
Qikz - Imagine the embarrassment if he is the alpha and we all lose to him

So basically, I have no strawberry floating clue, but I say Kinopio, Qikz or mcjihge2. At least if the alpha is amongst TAP/Cora/Pancake I can blame someone else

I'll vote mcjihge2 for mayor for the moment. I want to see how Rocsteady votes

The Alchemist Penguin wrote:If I was a wolf with only a day left until winning by default, what benefit would there be in a "power grab"? Pancake, the noble soul that he is, offered to run for mayor while we discussing this plan earlier (which he can hopefully confirm). If I was a wolf, and my main aim was to simply try and survive, why wouldn't I have taken Pancake up on his offer? Then you'd be threatening to lynch him instead!

Am I making a mistake? Maybe, it's a gamble and I'm not denying that. But a Wolf? Doing nothing, or at the very least letting Pancake run on this platform instead, would have been a far, far better strategy. The reality is much simpler: I believe the three of us are innocent, and if I'm wrong then that embarrassment should be hung on me. I don't want to be wrong though.

I would definitely encourage alternative candidates to come forward though. This is the last day, so we can't afford to be wrong.

Pushing for me is a mistake. Im going to change my candidate from you to Rocksteady - because of 1 in 8 [EDIT or Fatdaz]. I suggest you switch me out for CP [EDIT2 Captain Kinopio] who has made a now rare apperance in the thread.

mcjihge2 wrote:

The Alchemist Penguin wrote:

The Village
OrangeRKN
FatDaz
Corazon de Leon
Pancake
Qikz
mcjihge2
Rocsteady
The Alchemist Penguin
Captain Kinopio

==========

The Suspects
Corazon de Leon
Pancake
mcjihge2
The Alchemist Penguin

The Witch Doctor
OrangeRKN

The Bad Blood
Rocsteady

Here is the loss of logic, The suspects have arbitrarily ruled down to just 4 people. 3 of whom have asked the question in the first place, therefore closing the decision off completely. The suspects are still all of us. I understand that because as TAP said you three all knew about roonmaster then you are happy with each other. But you cant rule out the other people still in the game - CP, Fatdaz and Qkiz. Even Rocksteady might be lying an could actually be the alpha. It was claimed that he was seered three times as a human. Given the 50/50 claim that would make a 1 in eight chance that he got through that.

Qikz has been very inactive. Usually as a wolf going into meltdowns. But here hes just not posted much at all perhaps saving him from that.
Taking about melt downs - CP and Fatdaz.

It's not arbitrary. But yes, Rocsteady could also be lying, fair point. But this is the whole point: we have nothing concrete on anyone, therefore we are clutching at straws where we can. We've got nothing. At least lynching you is a plan!

Who the strawberry float is CP?

CP is his wolf name. mcjihge2 slipped up!

Corazon de Leon wrote:Who the strawberry float is CP?

sorry typo, captain kinopio.

mcjihge2 wrote:

The Alchemist Penguin wrote:

The Village
OrangeRKN
FatDaz
Corazon de Leon
Pancake
Qikz
mcjihge2
Rocsteady
The Alchemist Penguin
Captain Kinopio

==========

The Suspects
Corazon de Leon
Pancake
mcjihge2
The Alchemist Penguin

The Witch Doctor
OrangeRKN

The Bad Blood
Rocsteady

Here is the loss of logic, The suspects have arbitrarily ruled down to just 4 people. 3 of whom have asked the question in the first place, therefore closing the decision off completely. The suspects are still all of us. I understand that because as TAP said you three all knew about roonmaster then you are happy with each other. But you cant rule out the other people still in the game - CP, Fatdaz and Qkiz. Even Rocksteady might be lying an could actually be the alpha. It was claimed that he was seered three times as a human. Given the 50/50 claim that would make a 1 in eight chance that he got through that.

Qikz has been very inactive. Usually as a wolf going into meltdowns. But here hes just not posted much at all perhaps saving him from that.
Taking about melt downs - CP and Fatdaz.

Isn't this the gambler's fallacy? Each time he was seered would be a 50/50 chance, the second attempt is not affected by the first. It's 50/50 each time.

Maybe good old CP will vote today?

Vote for Mayor

3 - TAP (TAP, Pancake, Cora) [Lynch mcjihge2 and Rocsteady]
2 - mcjihge2 (mcjihge2, OrangeRKN) (Lynch Qikz, TAP)

Votes to lynch

1 - mcjihge2 (TAP)
1 - Qikz (mcjihge2)

I agree mcjihge2 is the most likely candidate so I vote for TAP

Pancake wrote: Isn't this the gambler's fallacy? Each time he was seered would be a 50/50 chance, the second attempt is not affected by the first. It's 50/50 each time.

No

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy#Coin_toss

It is 1/8 that he got three in a row. But his next seering is still 50/50 that he could come up human. But if it does come up human its 1/16 that he has been through that journey of "surviving" 4 seerings.

Pancake wrote:

Captain Kinopio wrote:Is it me or has it become very obvious TAP is a wolf

Well you were convinced that Mommy was a wolf so forgive me but I think your wolf sensor is broken.

A ghost did it

Interesting time for you to resurface Herbi.