GRcade

Do we know when the game ends mechanically speaking assume wolves continue to abstain from killing? How many more lynch chances do we have to get mommy the alpha?

OrangeRKN wrote:Nice that we actually have some active voting again, hopefully that will help out. Thanks for the mayor votes again!

I nominate Albear and mcjihge2 for the lynch, as per the rules of our democracy that I have never once broken. My choice for the lynch is Albear: He hasn't voted and teased us with non-existent megatons. I also think mcjihge2 is likely human.

Sorry, I meant post that in the "how toasty do you like your toast" thread.

Pancake wrote:I don't think you're being paranoid. We don't even know that there is an Alpha, given that this half wolf role has a chance to avoid detection by seers, perhaps there are a few of them instead of an Alpha. 'Two heads are better than one' just refers to the half wolf role, not two Alphas. Perhaps we should lynch Rocsteady?

The alpha-like role is referred to in the rules:

A secret informed minority are actually Wolves, who report to the Dogfather.
...
If the Dogfather is killed, the wolves will mourn for a day, meaning they would miss the subsequent day's kills.

Stay active

Inactive cull for the first however many nights.

It's 50 / 50

You'd think this is referring to the idea of the 50/50 chance on some people's roles coming back as human or werewolf.

Not all is what it seerns

Presumably this was another clue about the bad blood, or half wolf role.

You only get one shot

Probably referring to Mini E's role as vigilante.

You've got half a chance

Again, related to the 50/50 and Seerns clues?

Someone could save you

Witch Doctor role is active in the game?

Don't trust the old ways

Again, related to seering results not coming back 100% accurate? With that said, the next clue was this:

Some things never change

Which would seem to completely contradict the previous clue. I'm not sure about this one.

Two heads are better than one

I don't think this means there are two alphas. It's too vague to mean something like that. It's more likely to refer to half-wolves, in my view.

Don't believe everything you read

No idea. Presumably again related to the half wolf role, if it exists, and the difficulty of seering one if there's a chance they won't come back as the correct role. Perhaps the half-wolf's seering is reversed so they show as human when they're a werewolf, and vice-versa? (With that in mind, perhaps lynching Ian is a shout for tomorrow)

Sharing is caring

Perhaps someone has information that hasn't been put into the thread yet, that could help seal the victory? Something in their role PM, perhaps. I don't know.

Two heads are better than one

From a pure maths POV, seering someone twice will reduce the odds of an incorrect result to 25% - maybe just a matter of odds?

Anyway, I'll be voting to lynch Albear. He fits the bill of an Alpha who has given up/lost interest, and his picture is of a smirking canine

Clarkman wrote:From a pure maths POV, seering someone twice will reduce the odds of an incorrect result to 25%

No it doesn't. Multiple seerings won't help if it's 50%.

Clarkman wrote:Two heads are better than one

From a pure maths POV, seering someone twice will reduce the odds of an incorrect result to 25% - maybe just a matter of odds?

Isn't that just the gambler's fallacy?

OrangeRKN wrote:

Pancake wrote:I don't think you're being paranoid. We don't even know that there is an Alpha, given that this half wolf role has a chance to avoid detection by seers, perhaps there are a few of them instead of an Alpha. 'Two heads are better than one' just refers to the half wolf role, not two Alphas. Perhaps we should lynch Rocsteady?

The alpha-like role is referred to in the rules:

A secret informed minority are actually Wolves, who report to the Dogfather.
...
If the Dogfather is killed, the wolves will mourn for a day, meaning they would miss the subsequent day's kills.

Good point, at least we know what we're dealing with.

Im also going to point out that of the players still under scrutiny Pancake has the highest post count, which is usually a trait of an alpha, and he also made a grab for power of the thread, which is also an alpha trait. My candidates for lynch are now Pancake and Clarkman.

My rocksteady theory. What if Laga was telling the truth?

Lagamorph wrote:I'll tell you, but I'll also warn you, any player already steered as human will basically become suspicious again.

I'm a Half Wolf. Normally human and on human side and with a 50/50 chance of being seered as one or the other. At any point I can join the side of the Wolves, but don't become a Wolf in doing so and they don't find out about me unless they try to kill me, ay which point they find out and lose their kill.

There are possibly others who may or may not have switched sides already (I haven't) When we die we always come back as human, I have no idea if switching sides makes us count towards Wolf Numbers for win conditions or not.

Maybe the wolves have attempted to kill rocksteady and he has turned (one of the failed wolf kills?), becasue they want to bolster thier numbers? But if rocksteadys win condition is still on the side of the humans then he could give us wolf names and still win? It could be tied into the "sharing is caring clue"? However Laga did say that its upto the wolves to contact the half wolf. I think there was alot of activity on the forum - so i think the wolves may have contacted him. So Im putting this forward now in case i get lynched.

FatDaz wrote:Do we know when the game ends mechanically speaking assume wolves continue to abstain from killing? How many more lynch chances do we have to get mommy the alpha?

We have three lynches left, that's it.

Ok so I'll come clean - I have the same role as laga did.

I changed it slightly for obvious reasons. See, laga being lynched.

I haven't flipped so have no idea who the wolves/alpha is. If I was to be lynched it would again show human as it did with laga.

I suspect pancake for alpha since he put me forward to be lynched- not for retribution on my part but because logically it quite obviously doesn't further our necessary goal of hitting the alpha at this point. It's a suspicious call on his part imo, although I understand this will just look like me protecting my back.

We win by clearing out the werewolf roles though: if you have flipped then you would win if it gets to Friday and we haven’t killed you.

It's made clear in the role pm, as laga mentions, that I can't actually flip to a wolf - all that changes is for me personally where my win conditions change.

Rocsteady wrote:It's made clear in the role pm, as laga mentions, that I can't actually flip to a wolf - all that changes is for me personally where my win conditions change.

So, mechanically, I guess that means switching sides makes you more of a wolf sympathiser rather than a full-blown wolf.

Rocsteady wrote:It's made clear in the role pm, as laga mentions, that I can't actually flip to a wolf - all that changes is for me personally where my win conditions change.

You said that you 'haven't flipped' and then two posts later that you 'can't flip', make up your mind.

I suggested that perhaps we should lynch you after theorising that there may not be an Alpha. Then OR pointed out the dogfather role in the rules which I had forgotten, which makes that theory invalid anyway.

Pancake wrote:

Rocsteady wrote:It's made clear in the role pm, as laga mentions, that I can't actually flip to a wolf - all that changes is for me personally where my win conditions change.

You said that you 'haven't flipped' and then two posts later that you 'can't flip', make up your mind.

I suggested that perhaps we should lynch you after theorising that there may not be an Alpha. Then OR pointed out the dogfather role in the rules which I had forgotten, which makes that theory invalid anyway.

Whatever, flip to a sympathiser role, I thought that could easily be inferred.

Rocsteady wrote:

Pancake wrote:

Rocsteady wrote:It's made clear in the role pm, as laga mentions, that I can't actually flip to a wolf - all that changes is for me personally where my win conditions change.

You said that you 'haven't flipped' and then two posts later that you 'can't flip', make up your mind.

I suggested that perhaps we should lynch you after theorising that there may not be an Alpha. Then OR pointed out the dogfather role in the rules which I had forgotten, which makes that theory invalid anyway.

Whatever, flip to a sympathiser role, I thought that could easily be inferred.

I'm not sure how that's different from a human perspective though.

The question is, if you have flipped, what does that mean for our win condition? If we kill the Alpha / final true wolf, would a flipped half wolf prevent us from winning the game?

I can't Albear to watch.

The crowd gathers round Albear.

...

Not too surprised, probably too erratic to have been the Alpha. Don't believe mcjihge2 is either though. Clarkman and TAP are my two biggest suspects but unfortunately I have no basis for either, they're just good and experienced players who have been very low key.

FFS that death post

2 lynches left. If rocsteady has flipped and counts as a wolf, and we don't hit the alpha tonight, I'm pretty sure it's game over.

Three half-wolves all being recruitable to an already 5-strong pack does sound like a lot though, so maybe they won't count for win conditions?

Clarkman
Corazon de Leon
Pancake
mcjihge2
The Alchemist Penguin

So this is the group of people that we're looking at for the alpha then - forgive me if I've missed anyone and please let me know if I have. I've discounted SD, Kinopio and Fatdaz for being too loud and visible, Ian for being a half-wolf and therefore ineligible, Mommy and ORKN for their exploits in the seer circle.

I know I'm not the alpha( ) so it's between Clarky, Pancake, Mcjihge2 and Tiarny for me.

I don't think Jihge is the alpha but that's more gut feeling than logic, and likewise Pancake has voted similarly to me throughout and I've been trying to vote as logically pro-village as possible. Again, this doesn't discount him but it's difficult to know really.

It should be noted though that there's always the chance that Ian is playing a smart game and latching on to the laga/DB role as a way to keep himself alive until Friday. Just as much as there is a chance that Kinopio, Daz or SD have been playing a dangerous game against the lynch, though I think it's fairly unlikely.

It seems clear that the alpha is trying to time the game out by not killing anyone and giving us more bodies to work through, which is a novel scenario that I don't think I've seen in a game like this before - very interesting stuff.

With all of this in mind, I'll run for mayor tonight on the basis of Clarkman and TAP for the lynch.