WOLF MAFIA

mcjihge2 wrote:Lets really divide this vote. My two strongest suspicions.

Vote for Mayor

3 - OrangeRKN (OrangeRKN, Mommy, mcjihge2) [Lynch: Highest voted]
2 - Pancake (Pancake, FatDaz) [Lynch from Cora, Clarkman, TAP, mcjihge2, Albear]

Vote to Lynch

1 - Mommy (FatDaz)
1 - mcjihge2 (FatDaz)
1 - Albear (OrangeRKN)
2 - Qikz (mcjihge2, mommy)
2 - Clarkman (mcjihge2, mommy)

I actually agree with Pancake that the alpha is liable to come from that mid-tier group of posters, but I’d also put him amongst that group so I’m not sure about the play of electing him as mayor.

Corazon de Leon wrote:I actually agree with Pancake that the alpha is liable to come from that mid-tier group of posters, but I’d also put him amongst that group so I’m not sure about the play of electing him as mayor.

To be fair, I did name myself too. I'd be happy to back a different mayor running that platform but none is forthcoming.

Corazon de Leon wrote:I actually agree with Pancake that the alpha is liable to come from that mid-tier group of posters, but I’d also put him amongst that group so I’m not sure about the play of electing him as mayor.

Naming yourself as a suspect and then running for mayor on that platform while knowing you won't lynch yourself is a pretty great alpha tactic. Accountable, yet safe.

It's also a good tactic for a human because they know they're innocent... so I dunno if I suspect Pancake more or less now.

Vote for Mayor

3 - OrangeRKN (OrangeRKN, Mommy, mcjihge2) [Lynch: Highest voted]
2 - Pancake (Pancake, FatDaz) [Lynch from Cora, Clarkman, TAP, mcjihge2, Albear]

Vote to Lynch

1 - Mommy (FatDaz)
2 - mcjihge2 (FatDaz, Pancake)
2 - Albear (OrangeRKN, Pancake)
2 - Qikz (mcjihge2, mommy)
2 - Clarkman (mcjihge2, mommy)

Voting for these two mostly because I don't think Qikz should be a priority.

Pancake wrote:

Vote for Mayor

4 - OrangeRKN (OrangeRKN, Mommy, mcjihge2, Qikz) [Lynch: Highest voted]
2 - Pancake (Pancake, FatDaz) [Lynch from Cora, Clarkman, TAP, mcjihge2, Albear]

Vote to Lynch

1 - Mommy (FatDaz)
3 - mcjihge2 (FatDaz, Pancake, Qikz)
3 - Albear (OrangeRKN, Pancake, Qikz)
2 - Qikz (mcjihge2, mommy)
2 - Clarkman (mcjihge2, mommy)

Voting for these two mostly because I don't think Qikz should be a priority.

These are the players I'd confidently discount from being the Alpha -

Orange (obvs witch doctor), Mommy (obvs broken seer), Qikz (obvs human - plays the game too plainly to hide a secret role), Rocsteady (fool's gambit, too risky for Alpha play)

Leaving us with -

Albear, FatDaz, Cora, Pancake, mcjihge2, TAP, herbi

If we're abiding by the 2 Alpha theory, our best leads will come from looking where these players have covered for each other in the thread.

I also like the theory of wolves timing out on their kills in recent days, so track people among those 7 who have been inactive/seem to have given up.

Vote for Mayor

5 - OrangeRKN (OrangeRKN, Mommy, mcjihge2, Qikz, Clarkman) [Lynch: Highest voted]
2 - Pancake (Pancake, FatDaz) [Lynch from Cora, Clarkman, TAP, mcjihge2, Albear]

Vote to Lynch

1 - Mommy (FatDaz)
4 - mcjihge2 (FatDaz, Pancake, Qikz, Clarkman)
4 - Albear (OrangeRKN, Pancake, Qikz, Clarkman)
2 - Qikz (mcjihge2, mommy)
2 - Clarkman (mcjihge2, mommy)

Nice that we actually have some active voting again, hopefully that will help out. Thanks for the mayor votes again!

I nominate Albear and mcjihge2 for the lynch, as per the rules of our democracy that I have never once broken. My choice for the lynch is Albear: He hasn't voted and teased us with non-existent megatons. I also think mcjihge2 is likely human.

Clarkman wrote:These are the players I'd confidently discount from being the Alpha -

Orange (obvs witch doctor), Mommy (obvs broken seer), Qikz (obvs human - plays the game too plainly to hide a secret role), Rocsteady (fool's gambit, too risky for Alpha play)

Leaving us with -

Albear, FatDaz, Cora, Pancake, mcjihge2, TAP, herbi

If we're abiding by the 2 Alpha theory, our best leads will come from looking where these players have covered for each other in the thread.

I also like the theory of wolves timing out on their kills in recent days, so track people among those 7 who have been inactive/seem to have given up.

Arriving at the same list as me but adding Kinopio and FatDaz instead of yourself. Don't you think Kinopia and FatDaz have been too obviously critical of Mommy/OR to be the Alpha? They could so easily have been lynched earlier for pushing so hard.

OrangeRKN wrote:Nice that we actually have some active voting again, hopefully that will help out. Thanks for the mayor votes again!

The game is interesting again because seering is now useless so we don't have to worry about any broken seering bollocks.

Pancake wrote:

OrangeRKN wrote:Nice that we actually have some active voting again, hopefully that will help out. Thanks for the mayor votes again!

The game is interesting again because seering is now useless so we don't have to worry about any broken seering bollocks.

Yeah, fair enough. It was necessary considering the run of wolves we lynched but it did pretty much kill any other activity in the thread as only Mommy, TNAG and myself had anything to do.

OrangeRKN wrote:

Pancake wrote:

OrangeRKN wrote:Nice that we actually have some active voting again, hopefully that will help out. Thanks for the mayor votes again!

The game is interesting again because seering is now useless so we don't have to worry about any broken seering bollocks.

Yeah, fair enough. It was necessary considering the run of wolves we lynched but it did pretty much kill any other activity in the thread as only Mommy, TNAG and myself had anything to do.

I don't even mind that, it's pretty normal for a Mafia game, I just threw a strop because I hate it when there are hidden rules. I want to know the rules of the game I'm playing. I now think that maybe Dangerblade simply didn't tell us the truth about his role and that there is no such thing as a broken seer - Dangerblade was a half wolf.

Edit: and for that matter, maybe Rocsteady is too. Something doesn't feel right about there being both half wolves and people with bad blood. It's the same thing!

Yes, I think Dangerblade was a half-wolf, hence his made up mechanic of broken seer (which is pretty much proven untrue, even without considering he had nothing to back it up). I am concerned that Rocsteady may be too.

Breakdown of clues and best guess meanings:

Stay active

Inactives got killed on night one

It's 50 / 50

Number of wolves equals number of seers (5 and 5)

Not all is what it seerns

Half-wolf roles can be seered incorrectly, possibly other roles too

You only get one shot

Only one vigilante (Mini E)

You've got half a chance

50% chance of half-wolves appearing as wolves when seered

Someone could save you

One Witch Doctor (Myself)

Don't trust the old ways

???

Some things never change

???

Two heads are better than one

There are two alphas

Don't believe everything you read

Not all death post role reveals are accurate (e.g. half-wolves are revealed as human on death)

Sharing is caring

???

I dont know why i seem to be picking up votes, i have been voting for the early seered wolves. I have put forward logical reasoned strategy. I have mentioned my suspicions of clarkman and qikz before. They only seemed to tokenly follow/vote early in the game and have popped up now to be more active. Most of the wolves have been inactive early game and i think the alpha is the same.

You will waste a lynch on a human if you lynch me. But to be honest i have lost interest in the game abit because ive started playing Gear of War 5.

Still think these 'clues' are nothing but a pointless distraction. Even if you're right on some of them, that's only because of what we've learned from the lynches. We've learnt nothing from the clues themselves.

If there are two Alphas and only three lynches left then we have lost.

mcjihge2 wrote:I dont know why i seem to be picking up votes, i have been voting for the early seered wolves. I have put forward logical reasoned strategy. I have mentioned my suspicions of clarkman and qikz before. They only seemed to tokenly follow/vote early in the game and have popped up now to be more active. Most of the wolves have been inactive early game and i think the alpha is the same.

You will waste a lynch on a human if you lynch me. But to be honest i have lost interest in the game abit because ive started playing Gear of War 5.

I think the Alpha is probably a low to mid level poster who hasn't done anything outrageous or drawn attention to themselves. That leaves you, Albear, Clarkman, Cora, TAP, me. You and Albear are as good a bet as anyone, I guess.

Rocsteady has to be a half-wolf. Otherwise his role is simply worse than the other two for no reason.

Dangerblade taking the secret to his grave makes sense if he had already swapped sides, while Lagamorph being open about it makes sense if he hadn't switched yet.

My remaining concern would be what happens if a half-wolf is alive at the end? Does that mean we've not lynched all the wolves? Could Rocsteady have positioned himself to win, given we're running out of time and so wouldn't waste time trying to lynch a non-alpha role?

Am I just being paranoid?

The Alchemist Penguin wrote:Rocsteady has to be a half-wolf. Otherwise his role is simply worse than the other two for no reason.

Dangerblade taking the secret to his grave makes sense if he had already swapped sides, while Lagamorph being open about it makes sense if he hadn't switched yet.

My remaining concern would be what happens if a half-wolf is alive at the end? Does that mean we've not lynched all the wolves? Could Rocsteady have positioned himself to win, given we're running out of time and so wouldn't waste time trying to lynch a non-alpha role?

Am I just being paranoid?

I don't think you're being paranoid. We don't even know that there is an Alpha, given that this half wolf role has a chance to avoid detection by seers, perhaps there are a few of them instead of an Alpha. 'Two heads are better than one' just refers to the half wolf role, not two Alphas. Perhaps we should lynch Rocsteady?